ELANElanco Animal Health IncorporatedHealthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Genericas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.86 · now $22.86 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ELAN has typically landed between $18.54 and $27.40 — a range of −18.9% to +19.9% from the issuance price $22.86.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,986 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-09-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.86) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ELAN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.86 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$18.54worst · -18.9%$27.4best · +19.9%
  • now $22.86 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.82 (-0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21–$24.64
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.54–$27.4
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,986 windows spanning 2018-09-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−45.6%−46.5%+0.0%
2020-02-18−45.2%−45.2%+2.3%
2020-02-20−42.1%−44.8%+3.0%
3 best
2025-04-16+59.5%+0.0%+60.7%
2025-04-15+57.0%−1.7%+58.0%
2025-04-17+56.6%+0.0%+56.6%

1,986 overlapping windows · 2018-09-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
38%
+0.1%
n=8
Feb
63%
+1.1%
n=8
Mar
25%
−7.7%
n=8
Apr
38%
−2.7%
n=8
May
50%
+7.7%
n=8
Jun
63%
+0.2%
n=8
Jul
63%
+3.7%
n=8
Aug
50%
+1.6%
n=8
Sep
25%
−4.0%
n=8
Oct
63%
−2.0%
n=8
Nov
63%
+4.9%
n=8
Dec
38%
+1.3%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$27$172026-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $936K — Kurzius Lawrence Erik2026-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $94K — O'Neill Shiv2026-08-12: 1 insider purchase, $109K — Harrington Michael J2026-08-07: 2 insider purchases, $334K — Herendeen Paul, VanHimbergen Robert M2026-05-15: 2 insider purchases, $200K — Modi Rajeev A., Simmons Jeffrey N2025-12-12: 1 insider purchase, $213K — Kurzius Lawrence Erik2025-12-11: 3 insider purchases, $725K — Simmons Jeffrey N, VanHimbergen Robert M, Modi Rajeev A.2025-12: 4 open-market purchases, $938K2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $200K2026-08: 5 open-market purchases, $1.5M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kurzius Lawrence Erik — Purchase on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer O'Neill Shiv — Purchase on 2026-08-18, filed same daydirector Harrington Michael J — Purchase on 2026-08-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Herendeen Paul — Purchase on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer VanHimbergen Robert M — Purchase on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Modi Rajeev A. — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Simmons Jeffrey N — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Kurzius Lawrence Erik — Purchase on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Simmons Jeffrey N — Purchase on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer VanHimbergen Robert M — Purchase on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Modi Rajeev A. — Purchase on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorPurchase40,000 @ $23.40$936K+26.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open188,647Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18O'Neill ShivofficerPurchase3,998 @ $23.58$94K+4.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open87,832Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-12Harrington Michael JdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $21.82$109K+4.0% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open131,451Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07Herendeen PauldirectorPurchase10,000 @ $23.68$237K+9.8% of holding+9.3%not yet — horizon still open111,687Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-07VanHimbergen Robert MofficerPurchase4,200 @ $23.08$97K+3.2% of holding+9.3%not yet — horizon still open137,516Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Modi Rajeev A.officerPurchase4,911 @ $20.35$100K+3.2% of holding+20.5%not yet — horizon still open160,812Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Simmons Jeffrey NdirectorPurchase4,971 @ $20.09$100K+3.0% of holding+20.5%not yet — horizon still open171,971Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $21.30$213K+8.2% of holding+13.2%+3.1%131,773Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11Simmons Jeffrey NdirectorPurchase22,000 @ $21.75$478K+15.2% of holding+14.0%+4.0%167,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11VanHimbergen Robert MofficerPurchase6,950 @ $21.64$150K+5.9% of holding+14.0%+4.0%124,233Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11Modi Rajeev A.officerPurchase4,500 @ $21.33$96K+3.8% of holding+14.0%+4.0%123,082Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-11Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $10.20$102K+9.9% of holding−5.6%+64.5%111,459Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-07Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $10.90$109K+10.9% of holding−7.6%+57.7%101,459Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05HOOVER R DAVIDdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $10.90$273K+13.5% of holding−2.7%+49.0%210,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

272 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Simmons Jeffrey NdirectorAward / grant11525,246Form 4
2026-09-04Modi Rajeev A.officerAward / grant609,831Form 4
2026-09-04VanHimbergen Robert MofficerAward / grant8150Form 4
2026-08-21Simmons Jeffrey NdirectorAward / grant11825,130Form 4
2026-08-21Modi Rajeev A.officerAward / grant629,770Form 4
2026-08-21VanHimbergen Robert MofficerAward / grant8142Form 4
2026-08-07Simmons Jeffrey NdirectorAward / grant12825,012Form 4
2026-08-07Modi Rajeev A.officerAward / grant679,709Form 4
2026-08-07VanHimbergen Robert MofficerAward / grant9134Form 4
2026-07-24Simmons Jeffrey NdirectorAward / grant11324,884Form 4
2026-07-24Modi Rajeev A.officerAward / grant599,642Form 4
2026-07-24VanHimbergen Robert MofficerAward / grant8125Form 4
2026-07-10Simmons Jeffrey NdirectorAward / grant11424,771Form 4
2026-07-10Modi Rajeev A.officerAward / grant609,583Form 4
2026-07-10VanHimbergen Robert MofficerAward / grant8117Form 4
2026-07-07VanHimbergen Robert MofficerWithheld for tax15,336133,316Form 4
2026-07-01Kinard David SofficerAward / grant25,62025,620Form 4
2026-06-30Anand Kapila KdirectorAward / grant58410,080Form 4
2026-06-26Simmons Jeffrey NdirectorAward / grant11524,657Form 4
2026-06-26Modi Rajeev A.officerAward / grant609,523Form 4
2026-06-26VanHimbergen Robert MofficerAward / grant8109Form 4
2026-06-12Simmons Jeffrey NdirectorAward / grant11724,542Form 4
2026-06-12Modi Rajeev A.officerAward / grant619,463Form 4
2026-06-12VanHimbergen Robert MofficerAward / grant8101Form 4
2026-05-29Simmons Jeffrey NdirectorAward / grant11924,425Form 4
2026-05-29Modi Rajeev A.officerAward / grant629,402Form 4
2026-05-29VanHimbergen Robert MofficerAward / grant893Form 4
2026-05-21Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorAward / grant12,196148,647Form 4
2026-05-21Anand Kapila KdirectorAward / grant4,67899,651Form 4
2026-05-21Anand Kapila KdirectorAward / grant12,196111,847Form 4
2026-05-21GARCIA ART AdirectorAward / grant4,67895,956Form 4
2026-05-21GARCIA ART AdirectorAward / grant12,196108,152Form 4
2026-05-21HOOVER R DAVIDdirectorAward / grant4,678111,451Form 4
2026-05-21Scots-Knight DenisedirectorAward / grant4,67893,392Form 4
2026-05-21Scots-Knight DenisedirectorAward / grant12,196105,588Form 4
2026-05-21Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorAward / grant4,678136,451Form 4
2026-05-21Herendeen PauldirectorAward / grant4,67889,491Form 4
2026-05-21Herendeen PauldirectorAward / grant12,196101,687Form 4
2026-05-21Kochevar Deborah TurnerdirectorAward / grant4,67894,392Form 4
2026-05-21McDonald Kirk PdirectorAward / grant4,67893,392Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.