ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc.Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Productsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $95.60 · now $95.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EL has typically landed between $77.79 and $113.16 — a range of −18.6% to +18.4% from the issuance price $95.60.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($95.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $95.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$77.79worst · -18.6%$113.16best · +18.4%
  • now $95.6 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $93.47 (-2.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $84.96–$101.99
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $77.79–$113.16
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-02-26−39.7%−39.7%+0.0%
2026-02-25−38.0%−38.0%+0.0%
2026-02-27−37.9%−38.6%+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-02+37.7%−6.7%+37.7%
2011-10-05+35.2%+0.0%+35.2%
2009-04-07+34.7%+0.0%+47.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$29.0B
market cap
$-0.70
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-19
next earnings
Revenue$14.3B
'20'25
Net income−$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$670M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-7.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-29.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.44
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $95.60$21.88$148.75
  • DCF (intrinsic)$30.63
  • Analyst target · range $80.00–$140.00$90.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$95.60

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.7%
n=18
Feb
68%
+3.4%
n=19
Mar
68%
−0.4%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.1%
n=19
May
53%
−0.1%
n=19
Jun
37%
−0.0%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.1%
n=19
Aug
47%
+1.6%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.1%
n=19
Oct
56%
−1.5%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.8%
n=18
Dec
83%
+4.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$119$672026-09-14: 3 insider sales, $5.7M — FRIBOURG PAUL J …2026-09-11: 1 insider sale, $4.4M — FRIBOURG PAUL J2026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $373K — BARSHEFSKY CHARLENE2026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $802K — La Lande Rashida2026-08-21: 1 insider sale, $554K — La Lande Rashida2025-11-26: 2 insider sales, $1.8M — LAUDER JANE, La Lande Rashida2025-11-18: 1 insider sale, $477K — Webster Meridith2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $365K — STERNLICHT BARRY S2025-11-06: 3 insider sales, $1.0B — LAL 2015 ELF Trust, Evelyn H. Lauder 2012 Marital Trust Two, Leonard A. Lauder 2013 Revocable Trust2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $2.7M2025-11: 7 open-market sales, $1.0B2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-09: 5 open-market sales, $10.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BARSHEFSKY CHARLENE — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer La Lande Rashida — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer La Lande Rashida — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradedirector LAUDER JANE — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer La Lande Rashida — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Webster Meridith — Sale on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STERNLICHT BARRY S — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner LAL 2015 ELF Trust — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Evelyn H. Lauder 2012 Marital Trust Two — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Leonard A. Lauder 2013 Revocable Trust — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorSale27,086 @ $98.35$2.7M−5.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open433,437Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorSale16,137 @ $98.79$1.6M−3.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open417,300Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorSale14,777 @ $97.17$1.4M−3.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open460,523Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-11FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorSale45,000 @ $96.78$4.4M−8.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open475,300Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-09BARSHEFSKY CHARLENEdirectorSale3,775 @ $98.82$373K−6.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open50,971Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-28La Lande RashidaofficerSale7,766 @ $103.32$802K−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-21La Lande RashidaofficerSale5,564 @ $99.55$554K−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-26LAUDER JANEdirectorSale17,840 @ $94.38$1.7M−23.3% of holding+12.8%−19.9%58,763Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-26La Lande RashidaofficerSale1,604 @ $94.45$151K−100.0% of holding+12.8%−19.9%0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-18Webster MeridithofficerSale5,430 @ $87.84$477K−100.0% of holding+20.6%−22.9%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorSale3,972 @ $91.83$365K−10.2% of holding+15.7%−20.6%34,812Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-06LAL 2015 ELF TrusttenPercentOwnerSale5,670,000 @ $89.70$508.6M−100.0% of holding+15.5%−16.0%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-06Evelyn H. Lauder 2012 Marital Trust TwotenPercentOwnerSale2,845,283 @ $89.70$255.2M−100.0% of holding+15.5%−16.0%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-06Leonard A. Lauder 2013 Revocable TrusttenPercentOwnerSale2,786,040 @ $89.70$249.9M−100.0% of holding+15.5%−16.0%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

286 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorAward / grant17448,099Form 4
2026-09-15FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorAward / grant15342,213Form 4
2026-09-15BARSHEFSKY CHARLENEdirectorAward / grant8623,761Form 4
2026-09-15STERNLICHT BARRY SdirectorAward / grant6818,784Form 4
2026-09-15FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorAward / grant5314,588Form 4
2026-09-15ZANNINO RICHARD FdirectorAward / grant3910,737Form 4
2026-09-15LAUDER GARY MdirectorAward / grant164,445Form 4
2026-09-15Tejada JenniferdirectorAward / grant164,427Form 4
2026-09-15Hyman JenniferdirectorAward / grant164,427Form 4
2026-09-15Nunez ArturodirectorAward / grant164,296Form 4
2026-09-15ZANNINO RICHARD FdirectorAward / grant113,006Form 4
2026-09-15Zinterhofer Eric LouisdirectorAward / grant102,825Form 4
2026-09-15Zinterhofer Eric LouisdirectorAward / grant82,321Form 4
2026-09-15Lauder William PdirectorAward / grant3795Form 4
2026-09-15LAUDER JANEdirectorAward / grant3795Form 4
2026-09-15Long Annabelle YudirectorAward / grant3795Form 4
2026-09-15Strong DanadirectorAward / grant3795Form 4
2026-09-09BARSHEFSKY CHARLENEdirectorOption exercise4,69754,746Form 4
2026-09-09BARSHEFSKY CHARLENEdirectorOption exercise4,6970Form 4
2026-09-09BARSHEFSKY CHARLENEdirectorOption exercise4,6970Form 4
2026-09-09BARSHEFSKY CHARLENEdirectorOption exercise4,6970Form 4
2026-09-09BARSHEFSKY CHARLENEdirectorOption exercise4,6970Form 4
2026-08-27La Lande RashidaofficerWithheld for tax6,5917,766Form 4
2026-08-27Shrivastava AkhilofficerAward / grant37,05337,053Form 4
2026-08-27La Lande RashidaofficerOption exercise14,35714,357Form 4
2026-08-27La Lande RashidaofficerAward / grant37,05337,053Form 4
2026-08-27Hertzmark Hudis JaneofficerAward / grant16,78216,782Form 4
2026-08-27Canevari RobertoofficerAward / grant32,32032,320Form 4
2026-08-27Hertzmark Hudis JaneofficerAward / grant61,15361,153Form 4
2026-08-27de la Faverie StephaneofficerAward / grant37,66137,661Form 4
2026-08-27de la Faverie StephaneofficerAward / grant137,238137,238Form 4
2026-08-27Canevari RobertoofficerAward / grant8,8698,869Form 4
2026-08-27Bowes MichaelofficerAward / grant4,8964,896Form 4
2026-08-27Bowes MichaelofficerAward / grant17,84117,841Form 4
2026-08-27Lammers Hendrik ReneofficerAward / grant9,4169,416Form 4
2026-08-27Lammers Hendrik ReneofficerAward / grant28,82028,820Form 4
2026-08-27Bowes MichaelofficerAward / grant17,84117,841Form 4
2026-08-27Hertzmark Hudis JaneofficerAward / grant16,78216,782Form 4
2026-08-27Hertzmark Hudis JaneofficerAward / grant61,15361,153Form 4
2026-08-27La Lande RashidaofficerOption exercise14,35714,357Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-05-042026-04-09$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-05-042026-04-01$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-05-042026-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-03-102026-02-02$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-27$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-10-102025-09-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-21$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-21$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-07-092025-06-23$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-07-072025-06-16$15–50K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2025-05-162025-04-11$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.