EGBN · TickerCove

EGBNEagle Bancorp, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.26 · now $28.21 (2026-09-17, −0.2% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EGBN has typically landed between $23.32 and $34.60 — a range of −17.5% to +22.4% from the issuance price $28.26.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$28.21 · 93% of range

$15.78 low$29.12 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-17 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.2%

typical move · IQR 15.5%

−17.5%worst (p90)+22.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where EGBN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $28.21 (-0.2%)
typical $27.92 (-1.2%)
middle 50% $25.73–$30.12
90% range $23.32–$34.6

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,004 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-04-17	−47.8%	−47.8%	+0.0%
2023-04-13	−47.1%	−47.1%	+0.0%
2023-04-12	−44.4%	−44.4%	+1.7%
3 best
2009-03-17	+49.9%	+0.0%	+49.9%
2009-03-12	+41.0%	+0.0%	+41.0%
2024-06-14	+40.4%	+0.0%	+40.4%

5,004 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

70%

+3.8%

n=20

Feb

40%

−1.2%

n=20

Mar

45%

−1.9%

n=20

Apr

50%

−1.4%

n=20

May

50%

−0.8%

n=20

Jun

60%

+1.5%

n=20

Jul

45%

+0.6%

n=20

Aug

40%

−1.3%

n=20

Sep

50%

+0.8%

n=20

Oct

45%

+2.5%

n=20

Nov

60%

+6.4%

n=20

Dec

50%

+1.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-21	Mathews Louis P. Jr.	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $17.20	$26K	+17.3% of holding	+12.2%	+35.9%	10,157	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-19	Mathews Louis P. Jr.	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $16.84	$25K	+21.0% of holding	+22.1%	+40.7%	8,657	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-14	Newell Eric R	officer	Purchase	3,050 @ $16.55	$50K	+10.0% of holding	+27.3%	+40.6%	33,615	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-07	Newell Eric R	officer	Purchase	1,170 @ $21.37	$25K	+4.2% of holding	+0.8%	−19.9%	28,733	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-12	Saltzman Paul	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $25.53	$77K	−14.2% of holding	−9.5%	−33.5%	18,177	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

89 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-10	Curley Stephen Russell	director	Award / grant	41,606	50,289	Form 4
2026-08-10	Curley Stephen Russell	director	Award / grant	17,045	17,045	Form 4
2026-08-10	Curley Stephen Russell	director	Award / grant	59,565	59,565	Form 4
2026-08-10	Curley Stephen Russell	director	Award / grant	8,683	8,683	Form 4
2026-05-30	Montano Trevor	director	Code W	3,000	0	Form 4
2026-05-30	Montano Trevor	director	Code W	3,000	3,000	Form 4
2026-03-16	Lee Evelyn	officer	Award / grant	4,086	27,630	Form 4
2026-03-16	Saltzman Paul	officer	Award / grant	4,086	27,626	Form 4
2026-03-16	Newell Eric R	officer	Award / grant	4,086	43,007	Form 4
2026-03-16	Riel Ryan	officer	Award / grant	4,086	46,884	Form 4
2026-02-26	RIEL SUSAN G	director	Withheld for tax	3,206	321,245	Form 4
2026-02-26	Riel Ryan	officer	Withheld for tax	832	42,798	Form 4
2026-02-26	Saltzman Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	368	23,540	Form 4
2026-02-26	Lee Evelyn	officer	Withheld for tax	212	23,544	Form 4
2026-02-19	Mathews Louis P. Jr.	director	Award / grant	9,073	19,230	Form 4
2026-02-19	Pederson Kristen J.	director	Award / grant	4,536	4,536	Form 4
2026-02-19	Saltzman Paul	officer	Award / grant	3,296	23,908	Form 4
2026-02-19	Saltzman Paul	officer	Award / grant	6,646	6,646	Form 4
2026-02-19	LaPlaca Theresa G.	director	Award / grant	9,073	46,798	Form 4
2026-02-19	Brockwell Matthew D	director	Award / grant	9,073	46,810	Form 4
2026-02-19	Lee Evelyn	officer	Award / grant	4,223	23,756	Form 4
2026-02-19	Lee Evelyn	officer	Award / grant	8,513	8,513	Form 4
2026-02-19	Wilm Theodore A.	director	Award / grant	4,536	4,536	Form 4
2026-02-19	Soto Benjamin M.	director	Award / grant	9,073	60,644	Form 4
2026-02-19	RIEL SUSAN G	director	Award / grant	7,780	324,451	Form 4
2026-02-19	RIEL SUSAN G	director	Award / grant	15,684	15,684	Form 4
2026-02-19	Newell Eric R	officer	Award / grant	5,248	38,921	Form 4
2026-02-19	Newell Eric R	officer	Award / grant	10,580	10,580	Form 4
2026-02-19	Ludwig A. Leslie	director	Award / grant	9,073	55,028	Form 4
2026-02-19	Soltesz James A	director	Award / grant	9,073	64,616	Form 4
2026-02-19	Freidkin Steven	director	Award / grant	9,073	48,972	Form 4
2026-02-19	Riel Ryan	officer	Award / grant	4,843	43,630	Form 4
2026-02-19	Riel Ryan	officer	Award / grant	9,764	9,764	Form 4
2026-02-13	RIEL SUSAN G	director	Withheld for tax	3,821	316,671	Form 4
2026-02-13	Riel Ryan	officer	Withheld for tax	980	38,787	Form 4
2026-02-13	Saltzman Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	487	20,612	Form 4
2026-02-12	RIEL SUSAN G	director	Withheld for tax	5,862	320,492	Form 4
2026-02-12	Riel Ryan	officer	Withheld for tax	1,610	39,767	Form 4
2026-02-12	Saltzman Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	762	21,099	Form 4
2025-12-26	RIEL SUSAN G	director	Gift	1,400	335,779	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i