Issued 2026-09-16 at $163.80 · now $163.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EFX has typically landed between $140.51 and $186.61 — a range of −14.2% to +13.9% from the issuance price $163.80.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($163.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EFX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $163.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $163.8 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $162.77 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $152.79–$172.74
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $140.51–$186.61
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −36.3% | −36.3% | +0.0% |
| 2017-08-16 | −34.8% | −34.8% | +0.1% |
| 2020-02-20 | −34.4% | −34.4% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-03 | +37.5% | +0.0% | +37.5% |
| 2022-10-20 | +33.2% | +0.0% | +37.9% |
| 2023-11-01 | +32.7% | +0.0% | +32.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$121.51
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$174.42
- Analyst target · range $182.00–$245.00$211.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$163.80
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | GAMBLE JOHN W JR | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $187.96 | $846K | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 69,055 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 21,543 @ $172.00 | $3.7M | −7.3% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 271,890 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 6,200 @ $171.26 | $1.1M | −2.1% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 293,433 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 4,112 @ $172.79 | $711K | −1.4% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 299,633 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 2,936 @ $173.79 | $510K | −1.0% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 303,745 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $174.91 | $227K | −0.4% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 306,681 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 600 @ $169.86 | $102K | −0.2% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 308,581 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 600 @ $168.47 | $101K | −0.2% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 307,981 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 500 @ $175.85 | $88K | −0.2% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 309,181 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Borton Chad M | officer | Sale | 2,455 @ $173.89 | $427K | −7.7% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | GAMBLE JOHN W JR | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $176.54 | $618K | −4.5% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,464 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 20,471 @ $172.46 | $3.5M | −7.0% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 271,730 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 10,944 @ $171.57 | $1.9M | −3.6% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 292,201 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 4,659 @ $173.39 | $808K | −1.5% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 303,145 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 1,717 @ $174.32 | $299K | −0.6% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 307,804 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | GAMBLE JOHN W JR | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $195.72 | $881K | −7.1% of holding | −5.8% | −8.6% | 58,921 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Mao Cecilia | director | Purchase | 2,400 @ $193.72 | $465K | +29.2% of holding | −1.6% | −12.3% | 10,623 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Borton Chad M | officer | Sale | 2,535 @ $191.50 | $485K | −12.8% of holding | +0.5% | −17.9% | 17,340 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Farshchi Jamil | officer | Sale | 1,167 @ $199.87 | $233K | −2.8% of holding | −2.2% | −18.5% | 39,869 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 18,352 @ $202.15 | $3.7M | −7.4% of holding | −6.0% | −22.6% | 230,506 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 11,000 @ $203.08 | $2.2M | −4.2% of holding | −6.0% | −22.6% | 248,858 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Farshchi Jamil | officer | Sale | 6,213 @ $195.81 | $1.2M | −13.1% of holding | −6.0% | −22.6% | 41,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 4,057 @ $201.26 | $817K | −1.5% of holding | −6.0% | −22.6% | 259,858 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 1,772 @ $200.03 | $354K | −0.7% of holding | −6.0% | −22.6% | 263,915 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 829 @ $199.00 | $165K | −0.3% of holding | −6.0% | −22.6% | 267,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 445 @ $196.43 | $87K | −0.2% of holding | −6.0% | −22.6% | 268,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 364 @ $195.40 | $71K | −0.1% of holding | −6.0% | −22.6% | 268,720 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 331 @ $194.22 | $64K | −0.1% of holding | −6.0% | −22.6% | 269,084 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 227 @ $192.89 | $44K | −0.1% of holding | −6.0% | −22.6% | 269,415 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 213 @ $203.76 | $43K | −0.1% of holding | −6.0% | −22.6% | 269,642 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 201 @ $197.79 | $40K | −0.1% of holding | −6.0% | −22.6% | 269,855 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | GAMBLE JOHN W JR | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $208.37 | $521K | −4.0% of holding | +1.7% | −36.2% | 59,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 6,943 @ $232.19 | $1.6M | −4.6% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 142,934 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 6,639 @ $230.18 | $1.5M | −4.2% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 149,877 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 6,227 @ $229.20 | $1.4M | −3.8% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 156,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 5,872 @ $230.16 | $1.4M | −21.0% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 22,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 5,274 @ $232.27 | $1.2M | −15.9% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 27,917 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Farshchi Jamil | officer | Sale | 4,925 @ $238.94 | $1.2M | −11.1% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 39,364 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 4,015 @ $233.01 | $936K | −2.4% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 162,743 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 3,995 @ $229.12 | $915K | −10.7% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 33,191 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 3,757 @ $231.46 | $870K | −2.2% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 166,758 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 3,331 @ $231.59 | $771K | −8.2% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 37,186 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 2,801 @ $233.12 | $653K | −6.5% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 40,517 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 204 @ $235.22 | $48K | −0.1% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 170,515 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 174 @ $233.88 | $41K | −0.1% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 170,719 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 76 @ $234.93 | $18K | −0.2% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 43,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 37 @ $233.95 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | −4.5% | −28.7% | 43,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | GAMBLE JOHN W JR | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $247.35 | $742K | −4.6% of holding | +4.6% | −28.5% | 62,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 19,841 @ $240.95 | $4.8M | −12.2% of holding | +1.5% | −23.1% | 142,872 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 17,731 @ $241.87 | $4.3M | −9.8% of holding | +1.5% | −23.1% | 162,713 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 9,497 @ $242.70 | $2.3M | −5.0% of holding | +1.5% | −23.1% | 180,444 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 831 @ $243.90 | $203K | −0.4% of holding | +1.5% | −23.1% | 189,941 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 364 @ $244.95 | $89K | −0.2% of holding | +1.5% | −23.1% | 190,772 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | GAMBLE JOHN W JR | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $259.10 | $518K | −3.0% of holding | −4.4% | −41.7% | 65,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-28 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 22,160 @ $256.61 | $5.7M | −13.5% of holding | −4.2% | −35.4% | 142,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | GAMBLE JOHN W JR | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $242.31 | $848K | −5.0% of holding | +4.9% | −8.6% | 67,153 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 7,151 @ $251.60 | $1.8M | −4.8% of holding | +2.9% | −7.1% | 142,243 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 6,199 @ $250.74 | $1.6M | −4.0% of holding | +2.9% | −7.1% | 149,394 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 5,214 @ $255.27 | $1.3M | −3.2% of holding | +2.9% | −7.1% | 155,593 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Begor Mark W | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $252.38 | $404K | −1.0% of holding | +2.9% | −7.1% | 160,807 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
139 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Larson Barbara A | director | Award / grant | 160 | 341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Larson Barbara A | director | Award / grant | 181 | 181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Option exercise | 37,791 | 309,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Option exercise | 37,791 | 37,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | MARCUS ROBERT D | director | Award / grant | 221 | 2,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | McKinley John A | director | Award / grant | 1,253 | 34,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Smith Melissa D | director | Award / grant | 1,253 | 6,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | TILLMAN AUDREY B | director | Award / grant | 1,253 | 6,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Larson Barbara A | director | Award / grant | 1,253 | 3,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | MARCUS ROBERT D | director | Award / grant | 1,253 | 18,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Fichuk Karen L | director | Award / grant | 1,253 | 4,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | MCGREGOR SCOTT A | director | Award / grant | 1,253 | 11,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | HOUGH G. THOMAS | director | Award / grant | 1,253 | 16,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | FEIDLER MARK L | director | Award / grant | 1,253 | 25,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Borton Chad M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,934 | 31,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Option exercise | 37,791 | 309,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Begor Mark W | director | Option exercise | 37,791 | 75,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | MARCUS ROBERT D | director | Award / grant | 194 | 2,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Smith David John | officer | Award / grant | 12,979 | 12,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Smith David John | officer | Award / grant | 9,979 | 22,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Borton Chad M | officer | Award / grant | 16,466 | 33,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Farshchi Jamil | officer | Award / grant | 14,221 | 54,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Remon Patricio | officer | Award / grant | 5,389 | 8,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | GAMBLE JOHN W JR | officer | Award / grant | 17,963 | 76,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Mao Cecilia | director | Award / grant | 2,695 | 13,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Walker Kathryn Q | officer | Award / grant | 1,497 | 3,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Schneider Harald | officer | Award / grant | 2,994 | 9,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Griggs James M | officer | Award / grant | 1,641 | 6,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Houston Julia A | officer | Award / grant | 11,152 | 28,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Chaney Carla | officer | Award / grant | 7,635 | 22,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Bindal Sunil | officer | Award / grant | 4,790 | 13,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Begor Mark W | director | Award / grant | 40,955 | 271,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Option exercise | 37,791 | 236,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | GAMBLE JOHN W JR | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,121 | 63,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Farshchi Jamil | officer | Option exercise | 6,213 | 45,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Farshchi Jamil | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,042 | 47,249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Chaney Carla | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,788 | 15,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Houston Julia A | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,614 | 17,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Begor Mark W | director | Withheld for tax | 1,759 | 265,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Bindal Sunil | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,727 | 8,656 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-10 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.