Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.43 · now $32.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EFOR has typically landed between $26.75 and $36.92 — a range of −17.5% to +13.9% from the issuance price $32.43.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EFOR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $32.43 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $31.97 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $29.82–$34.11
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $26.75–$36.92
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-02-03 | −69.1% | −69.1% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-05 | −66.7% | −67.2% | +5.0% |
| 2009-02-04 | −66.4% | −67.8% | +3.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +131.2% | +0.0% | +131.2% |
| 2009-03-09 | +111.4% | +0.0% | +127.9% |
| 2009-03-06 | +109.7% | −2.8% | +121.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Dyer Joseph Wendell | director | Purchase | 1,112 @ $22.47 | $25K | +5.9% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,953 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-28 | Iyer Sadasivam | officer | Purchase | 1,110 @ $22.67 | $25K | +1.8% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,905 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-28 | Cunningham Rose | officer | Purchase | 1,125 @ $22.27 | $25K | +7.8% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,587 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-27 | Callaghan Brian J. | director | Purchase | 5,121 @ $20.27 | $104K | +1.6% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 328,950 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-27 | Obermaier Patricia L | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $20.61 | $52K | +35.5% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,548 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-27 | Lindstrom Carol | director | Purchase | 240 @ $20.15 | $5K | +2.1% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,551 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-27 | Lindstrom Carol | director | Purchase | 7 @ $20.16 | $141 | +0.1% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,558 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-24 | Hanson Theodore S. | director | Purchase | 51,965 @ $19.24 | $1000K | +16.0% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 376,843 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | MATIN ARSHAD | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $19.35 | $193K | +58.6% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,069 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | HAWTHORNE MARIA R | director | Purchase | 5,136 @ $19.49 | $100K | +50.1% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,388 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Perry Marie | officer | Purchase | 5,350 @ $18.70 | $100K | +10.1% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,328 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Frantz Mark A. | director | Purchase | 3,800 @ $18.92 | $72K | +20.9% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,001 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Painter Jennifer Hankes | officer | Purchase | 2,500 @ $20.03 | $50K | +3.4% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,061 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Dyer Joseph Wendell | director | Purchase | 2,684 @ $18.63 | $50K | +16.6% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,841 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | HOLMAN JONATHAN S | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $18.87 | $38K | +14.4% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,893 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Iyer Sadasivam | officer | Purchase | 1,200 @ $19.42 | $23K | +2.0% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,270 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Iyer Sadasivam | officer | Purchase | 525 @ $19.02 | $10K | +0.9% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,795 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
1 award / exercise / gift record — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | HOLMAN JONATHAN S | director | Withheld for tax | 386 | 15,507 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.