Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.62 · now $12.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EFC has typically landed between $11.42 and $13.83 — a range of −9.5% to +9.6% from the issuance price $12.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,986 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-10-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EFC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.72 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.28–$13.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.42–$13.83
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-24 | −78.6% | −78.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-05 | −76.1% | −76.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-04 | −75.2% | −76.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-24 | +155.4% | +0.0% | +185.9% |
| 2020-04-03 | +147.3% | +0.0% | +182.8% |
| 2020-04-02 | +142.1% | −4.6% | +169.7% |
3,986 overlapping windows · 2010-10-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-11 | SIMON RONALD I | director | Purchase | 5,544 @ $13.56 | $75K | +7.4% of holding | +0.6% | −8.9% | 80,000 | Form 4 · filed 21 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
21 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | SIMON RONALD I | director | Award / grant | 10,181 | 90,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Dannhauser Stephen J | director | Award / grant | 10,181 | 45,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Mumford Lisa | director | Award / grant | 10,181 | 98,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Resendez Edward | director | Award / grant | 10,181 | 76,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Vranos Michael W | officer | Other acquisition | 6,794 | 1,129,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Vranos Michael W | officer | Other acquisition | 161,934 | 1,122,952 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Mumford Lisa | director | Option exercise | 7,657 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Mumford Lisa | director | Award / grant | 7,657 | 88,773 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Smernoff Chris | officer | Award / grant | 18,209 | 100,366 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Herlihy John | officer | Award / grant | 36,417 | 171,870 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Resendez Edward | director | Award / grant | 9,198 | 66,367 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | SIMON RONALD I | director | Award / grant | 9,198 | 74,456 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Mumford Lisa | director | Award / grant | 9,198 | 81,116 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Dannhauser Stephen J | director | Award / grant | 9,198 | 35,498 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-20 | Vranos Michael W | officer | Other acquisition | 33,877 | 961,018 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-27 | SIMON RONALD I | director | Award / grant | 8,378 | 65,258 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-27 | SIMON RONALD I | director | Other acquisition | 8,378 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-27 | Mumford Lisa | director | Award / grant | 8,378 | 71,918 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-27 | Mumford Lisa | director | Other acquisition | 8,378 | 7,657 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-20 | Smernoff Chris | officer | Award / grant | 14,992 | 82,157 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-20 | Herlihy John | officer | Award / grant | 26,945 | 135,453 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.