ECVT · TickerCove

ECVTEcovyst Inc.Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.88 · now $10.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ECVT has typically landed between $9.16 and $12.56 — a range of −15.8% to +15.4% from the issuance price $10.88.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,231 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-09-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$10.88 · 43% of range

$7.84 low$14.97 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 13.4%

−15.8%worst (p90)+15.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ECVT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $10.88 (+0.0%)
typical $10.91 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $10.18–$11.64
90% range $9.16–$12.56

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,231 windows spanning 2017-09-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-11	−43.5%	−43.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−40.1%	−42.4%	+0.3%
2020-02-06	−39.8%	−39.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07	+34.1%	−5.9%	+34.1%
2024-10-24	+32.5%	−0.5%	+33.5%
2024-10-25	+32.4%	+0.0%	+34.1%

2,231 overlapping windows · 2017-09-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

44%

+1.2%

n=9

Feb

56%

−1.2%

n=9

Mar

67%

+2.7%

n=9

Apr

44%

−2.7%

n=9

May

56%

+4.9%

n=9

Jun

56%

+2.8%

n=9

Jul

67%

+1.3%

n=9

Aug

22%

−8.1%

n=9

Sep

22%

−2.9%

n=9

Oct

44%

+0.6%

n=9

Nov

56%

+1.5%

n=9

Dec

56%

+4.3%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-10	Humble Patti A.	director	Purchase	24,875 @ $10.05	$250K	+273.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	33,974	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-02	Lorance Sarah	director	Sale	8,450 @ $13.33	$113K	−13.4% of holding	−9.1%	not yet — horizon still open	54,700	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07	Ward Susan F	director	Sale	15,000 @ $8.40	$126K	−16.1% of holding	+1.9%	+62.2%	78,261	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-24	Bergman Laurie	director	Award / grant	43,353	43,353	Form 4
2026-05-26	Humble Patti A.	director	Award / grant	9,099	9,099	Form 4
2026-03-12	Bitting Kurt	director	Option exercise	38,064	698,382	Form 4
2026-03-12	Bitting Kurt	director	Option exercise	9,516	0	Form 4
2026-03-04	Koscinski Joseph S.	officer	Award / grant	11,052	595,784	Form 4
2026-03-04	Feehan Michael	officer	Award / grant	11,052	389,071	Form 4
2026-02-03	Bitting Kurt	director	Withheld for tax	25,925	543,926	Form 4
2026-02-03	Feehan Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	4,834	358,620	Form 4
2026-02-03	Brown Bryan K.	director	Award / grant	19,399	109,015	Form 4
2026-02-03	Feehan Michael	officer	Award / grant	19,399	378,019	Form 4
2026-02-03	Koscinski Joseph S.	officer	Award / grant	27,158	584,732	Form 4
2026-02-03	Ward Susan F	director	Award / grant	19,399	97,660	Form 4
2026-02-03	Althoff Donald L.	director	Award / grant	19,399	58,376	Form 4
2026-02-03	Lorance Sarah	director	Award / grant	19,399	63,150	Form 4
2026-02-03	Catalano Anna C	director	Award / grant	19,399	102,805	Form 4
2026-02-03	Fogarty Kevin Michael	director	Award / grant	38,798	215,998	Form 4
2026-02-03	Bradley David A.	director	Award / grant	19,399	107,999	Form 4
2026-02-03	Bitting Kurt	director	Award / grant	116,392	660,318	Form 4
2026-01-22	Bitting Kurt	director	Withheld for tax	16,053	569,851	Form 4
2026-01-22	Feehan Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	4,246	363,454	Form 4
2026-01-05	Bitting Kurt	director	Withheld for tax	16,097	585,904	Form 4
2026-01-05	Feehan Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	6,231	367,700	Form 4
2025-02-03	Fogarty Kevin Michael	director	Award / grant	51,348	177,200	Form 4
2025-02-03	Feehan Michael	officer	Award / grant	25,674	373,931	Form 4
2025-02-03	Brown Bryan K.	director	Award / grant	25,674	89,616	Form 4
2025-02-03	Althoff Donald L.	director	Award / grant	25,674	38,977	Form 4
2025-02-03	Lorance Sarah	director	Award / grant	25,674	43,751	Form 4
2025-02-03	Ward Susan F	director	Award / grant	25,674	93,261	Form 4
2025-02-03	Bitting Kurt	director	Award / grant	154,044	602,001	Form 4
2025-02-03	Catalano Anna C	director	Award / grant	25,674	83,406	Form 4
2025-02-03	Koscinski Joseph S.	officer	Award / grant	35,944	557,574	Form 4
2025-02-03	Whittleston Paul	officer	Award / grant	23,107	72,847	Form 4
2025-02-03	Vann George L. Jr.	officer	Award / grant	20,540	69,679	Form 4
2025-02-03	Bradley David A.	director	Award / grant	25,674	88,600	Form 4
2025-01-22	Bitting Kurt	director	Withheld for tax	14,315	447,957	Form 4
2025-01-22	Koscinski Joseph S.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,522	521,630	Form 4
2025-01-22	Whittleston Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	2,982	49,740	Form 4
2025-01-22	Feehan Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	2,382	348,257	Form 4
2025-01-22	Vann George L. Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,482	49,139	Form 4
2025-01-05	Bitting Kurt	director	Withheld for tax	27,060	462,272	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i