ECPGEncore Capital Group, Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Mortgagesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $99.76 · now $99.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ECPG has typically landed between $86.11 and $116.87 — a range of −13.7% to +17.1% from the issuance price $99.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($99.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ECPG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $99.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$86.11worst · -13.7%$116.87best · +17.1%
  • now $99.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $101.43 (+1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $94.8–$108.07
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $86.11–$116.87
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-05−56.9%−57.2%+0.0%
2020-03-04−52.3%−58.0%+0.0%
2020-02-19−50.9%−50.9%+16.0%
3 best
2009-04-08+139.9%−4.3%+139.9%
2009-04-20+136.8%+0.0%+153.0%
2009-04-17+135.3%−4.7%+141.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
35%
−3.7%
n=20
Feb
60%
+1.9%
n=20
Mar
40%
−3.2%
n=20
Apr
60%
+10.0%
n=20
May
70%
+9.5%
n=20
Jun
55%
+1.5%
n=20
Jul
55%
+4.2%
n=20
Aug
65%
+1.2%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.5%
n=20
Oct
55%
−0.7%
n=20
Nov
45%
+2.6%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$104$412026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $161K — Yung John2026-06-10: 2 insider sales, $228K — Yung John, Asch Andrew Eric2026-06-09: 3 insider sales, $677K — Asch Andrew Eric …2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $18K — Bell Ryan B2026-03-02: 4 insider sales, $500K — Bell Ryan B …2025-12-10: 1 insider sale, $138K — Bell Ryan B2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $75K — OLLE LAURA2025-11-26: 1 insider sale, $52K — Yung John2025-11-06: 2 insider sales, $500K — Bell Ryan B, Yung John2025-11: 3 open-market sales, $552K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $213K2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $518K2026-06: 6 open-market sales, $1.1M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Yung John — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed same dayofficer Yung John — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Asch Andrew Eric — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Asch Andrew Eric — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Asch Andrew Eric — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Asch Andrew Eric — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bell Ryan B — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bell Ryan B — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bell Ryan B — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bell Ryan B — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bell Ryan B — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bell Ryan B — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector OLLE LAURA — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Yung John — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed same dayofficer Bell Ryan B — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Yung John — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-11Yung JohnofficerSale2,000 @ $80.51$161K−3.1% of holding+9.2%not yet — horizon still open62,570Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-10Yung JohnofficerSale2,000 @ $82.08$164K−3.0% of holding+9.8%not yet — horizon still open64,570Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10Asch Andrew EricofficerSale774 @ $82.08$64K−3.5% of holding+9.8%not yet — horizon still open21,607Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09Asch Andrew EricofficerSale6,922 @ $81.52$564K−23.2% of holding+9.4%not yet — horizon still open22,937Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-09Asch Andrew EricofficerSale833 @ $80.51$67K−2.7% of holding+9.4%not yet — horizon still open29,859Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-09Asch Andrew EricofficerSale556 @ $82.31$46K−2.4% of holding+9.4%not yet — horizon still open22,381Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03Bell Ryan BofficerSale260 @ $68.62$18K−0.5% of holding+2.0%+16.9%47,910Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Bell Ryan BofficerSale3,603 @ $69.44$250K−6.7% of holding+3.9%+24.4%50,341Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Bell Ryan BofficerSale1,466 @ $70.07$103K−2.6% of holding+3.9%+24.4%53,944Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Bell Ryan BofficerSale1,500 @ $68.12$102K−3.0% of holding+3.9%+24.4%48,841Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Bell Ryan BofficerSale671 @ $66.69$45K−1.4% of holding+3.9%+24.4%48,170Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-10Bell Ryan BofficerSale2,500 @ $55.00$138K−4.3% of holding−1.3%+38.5%55,410Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-03OLLE LAURAdirectorSale1,423 @ $52.79$75K−3.9% of holding+7.6%+47.4%35,024Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-26Yung JohnofficerSale1,000 @ $52.00$52K−1.7% of holding+6.7%+41.4%56,609Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-06Bell Ryan BofficerSale5,000 @ $50.00$250K−7.9% of holding+11.9%+63.4%57,910Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06Yung JohnofficerSale5,000 @ $50.00$250K−8.0% of holding+11.9%+63.4%57,609Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05Gupta AshwinidirectorPurchase40,000 @ $35.10$1.4M+70.3% of holding+5.0%+9.6%96,909Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-05CLARK JONATHAN CofficerPurchase28,600 @ $35.00$1.0M+17.7% of holding+5.0%+9.6%190,164Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05Masih AshishdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $35.14$703K+6.6% of holding+5.0%+9.6%322,254Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Gupta AshwinidirectorAward / grant291105,927Form 4
2026-08-26Beck Robert WilliamdirectorAward / grant1,4621,462Form 4
2026-06-22Gupta AshwinidirectorAward / grant2,144105,636Form 4
2026-06-22Goings William C.directorAward / grant2,14415,144Form 4
2026-06-22Hilzinger Jeffrey AlbertdirectorAward / grant2,14426,475Form 4
2026-06-22Stovsky Richard PdirectorAward / grant2,14429,562Form 4
2026-06-22Angela A. KnightdirectorAward / grant2,14426,475Form 4
2026-06-22MONACO MICHAEL PdirectorAward / grant2,14442,256Form 4
2026-06-22OLLE LAURAdirectorAward / grant2,14437,168Form 4
2026-06-01Gupta AshwinidirectorAward / grant340103,492Form 4
2026-03-09Masih AshishdirectorWithheld for tax25,658389,613Form 4
2026-03-09Bell Ryan BofficerWithheld for tax7,89958,439Form 4
2026-03-09Yung JohnofficerWithheld for tax5,67766,570Form 4
2026-03-09Hernanz Tomas CruzofficerWithheld for tax4,14832,573Form 4
2026-03-09Asch Andrew EricofficerWithheld for tax4,06830,692Form 4
2026-03-09Asch Andrew EricofficerAward / grant2,91434,760Form 4
2026-03-09Bell Ryan BofficerAward / grant9,16557,075Form 4
2026-03-09Bell Ryan BofficerAward / grant4,13361,208Form 4
2026-03-09Bell Ryan BofficerAward / grant5,13066,338Form 4
2026-03-09Masih AshishdirectorAward / grant31,009385,590Form 4
2026-03-09Masih AshishdirectorAward / grant14,105399,695Form 4
2026-03-09Masih AshishdirectorAward / grant15,576415,271Form 4
2026-03-09Yung JohnofficerAward / grant4,89672,247Form 4
2026-03-09Hernanz Tomas CruzofficerAward / grant8,06532,291Form 4
2026-03-09Hernanz Tomas CruzofficerAward / grant4,43036,721Form 4
2026-03-09Yung JohnofficerAward / grant8,43265,041Form 4
2026-03-09Asch Andrew EricofficerAward / grant1,94531,846Form 4
2026-03-09Asch Andrew EricofficerAward / grant5,68229,901Form 4
2026-03-09Yung JohnofficerAward / grant2,31067,351Form 4
2026-03-01Gupta AshwinidirectorAward / grant347103,152Form 4
2025-12-01Gupta AshwinidirectorAward / grant448102,805Form 4
2025-09-01Gupta AshwinidirectorAward / grant657102,357Form 4
2025-06-13Hannam WendydirectorAward / grant4,06642,849Form 4
2025-06-13Goings William C.directorAward / grant4,06613,000Form 4
2025-06-13Angela A. KnightdirectorAward / grant4,06624,331Form 4
2025-06-13MONACO MICHAEL PdirectorAward / grant4,06640,112Form 4
2025-06-13Gupta AshwinidirectorAward / grant4,066101,700Form 4
2025-06-13Hilzinger Jeffrey AlbertdirectorAward / grant4,06624,331Form 4
2025-06-13Stovsky Richard PdirectorAward / grant4,06627,418Form 4
2025-06-13OLLE LAURAdirectorAward / grant4,06636,447Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.