ECLEcolab Inc.Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $274.08 · now $274.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ECL has typically landed between $246.37 and $300.10 — a range of −10.1% to +9.5% from the issuance price $274.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($274.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ECL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $274.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$246.37worst · -10.1%$300.1best · +9.5%
  • now $274.08 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $277.85 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $266.41–$289.3
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $246.37–$300.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−39.5%−39.5%+0.0%
2020-02-20−31.1%−31.1%+0.6%
2008-09-26−28.7%−28.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+39.6%+0.0%+44.4%
2020-04-03+31.3%+0.0%+34.2%
2020-04-01+29.5%+0.0%+34.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$75.6B
market cap
$7.39
EPS (TTM)
36.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$16.1B
'20'25
Net income$2.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr21.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.97
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $274.08$162.89$358.49
  • DCF (intrinsic)$211.95
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$176.38
  • Analyst target · range $275.00–$345.00$332.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$274.08

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.1%
n=18
Feb
53%
+1.5%
n=19
Mar
74%
+1.0%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.8%
n=19
May
47%
+0.6%
n=19
Jun
63%
+1.5%
n=19
Jul
47%
+0.7%
n=19
Aug
74%
+2.3%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.3%
n=19
Oct
39%
−0.7%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.2%
n=18
Dec
39%
−1.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$307$2452026-09-11: 2 insider purchases, $1.0M — Green Eric Mark …2026-08-18: 1 insider sale, $5.0M — Beck Christophe2026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Cook Gregory B2026-07-30: 1 insider sale, $930K — Kirkland Scott D2026-06-11: 1 insider purchase, $264K — Clark Benjamin M.2026-06-10: 1 insider purchase, $2.0M — Doukeris Michel D2026-06-09: 1 insider sale, $2.6M — Brown Darrell R2026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $266K — Vautrinot Suzanne M2026-05-13: 1 insider purchase, $251K — MacLennan David2026-05-04: 1 insider purchase, $206K — MacLennan David2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Cook Gregory B2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $390K — McKibben Tracy B2026-02-24: 2 insider sales, $6.1M — Beck Christophe …2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $2.9M — Alfano Nicholas J.2026-02-13: 2 insider sales, $486K — REICH VICTORIA, Bradway Jennifer J2025-12-08: 1 insider purchase, $193K — MacLennan David2025-11-24: 1 insider sale, $381K — De Boo Alexander A.2025-11-12: 2 insider sales, $5.7M — Beck Christophe …2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $383K — Vautrinot Suzanne M2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $225K — Bradway Jennifer J2025-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $167K — MacLennan David2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $167K2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $609K2025-11: 3 open-market sales, $6.1M2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $193K2026-02: 7 open-market sales, $11.0M2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $456K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $266K2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $2.3M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $2.6M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $930K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $6.3M2026-09: 2 open-market purchases, $1.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Green Eric Mark — Purchase on 2026-09-11, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Green Eric Mark — Purchase on 2026-09-11, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Beck Christophe — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cook Gregory B — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed same dayofficer Kirkland Scott D — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Clark Benjamin M. — Purchase on 2026-06-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Doukeris Michel D — Purchase on 2026-06-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Brown Darrell R — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Vautrinot Suzanne M — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed same daydirector MacLennan David — Purchase on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MacLennan David — Purchase on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cook Gregory B — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McKibben Tracy B — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Beck Christophe — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Beck Christophe — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Alfano Nicholas J. — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector REICH VICTORIA — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Bradway Jennifer J — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MacLennan David — Purchase on 2025-12-08, filed same dayofficer De Boo Alexander A. — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Beck Christophe — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Beck Christophe — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Vautrinot Suzanne M — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same dayofficer Bradway Jennifer J — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MacLennan David — Purchase on 2025-08-13, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Green Eric MarkdirectorPurchase3,370 @ $276.58$932K+79.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,627Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-09-11Green Eric MarkdirectorPurchase320 @ $277.29$89K+4.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,947Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-18Beck ChristophedirectorSale17,862 @ $280.14$5.0M−19.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open72,932Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11Cook Gregory BofficerSale4,567 @ $285.13$1.3M−28.1% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open11,673Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-30Kirkland Scott DofficerSale3,357 @ $276.96$930K−16.1% of holding−1.1%not yet — horizon still open17,524Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11Clark Benjamin M.officerPurchase1,000 @ $263.83$264K+1210.9% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open1,083Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-10Doukeris Michel DdirectorPurchase7,750 @ $258.00$2.0M+1344.9% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open8,326Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09Brown Darrell RofficerSale10,000 @ $260.89$2.6M−23.4% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open32,733Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27Vautrinot Suzanne MdirectorSale1,004 @ $264.98$266K−7.9% of holding+10.9%not yet — horizon still open11,651Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-13MacLennan DaviddirectorPurchase1,000 @ $250.65$251K+4.1% of holding+6.4%not yet — horizon still open25,230Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04MacLennan DaviddirectorPurchase800 @ $256.91$206K+3.4% of holding−5.0%not yet — horizon still open24,230Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26Cook Gregory BofficerSale3,519 @ $304.25$1.1M−23.2% of holding−6.8%−18.8%11,673Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25McKibben Tracy BdirectorSale1,265 @ $308.66$390K−10.0% of holding−6.9%−15.8%11,358Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Beck ChristophedirectorSale18,120 @ $307.32$5.6M−16.4% of holding−8.4%−17.6%92,674Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Beck ChristophedirectorSale1,880 @ $307.87$579K−2.0% of holding−8.4%−17.6%90,794Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Alfano Nicholas J.officerSale9,501 @ $303.58$2.9M−66.8% of holding−10.4%−20.3%4,722Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-13REICH VICTORIAdirectorSale1,000 @ $301.08$301K−3.8% of holding−7.0%−21.2%25,176Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Bradway Jennifer JofficerSale613 @ $302.01$185K−11.5% of holding−7.0%−21.2%4,706Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-08MacLennan DaviddirectorPurchase750 @ $257.60$193K+3.4% of holding+4.8%−6.2%23,035Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-24De Boo Alexander A.officerSale1,422 @ $268.25$381K−19.9% of holding−4.5%−16.1%5,726Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Beck ChristophedirectorSale17,252 @ $261.17$4.5M−18.3% of holding+1.2%−13.4%77,106Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Beck ChristophedirectorSale4,462 @ $262.35$1.2M−5.8% of holding+1.2%−13.4%72,644Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-19Vautrinot Suzanne MdirectorSale1,354 @ $283.16$383K−10.8% of holding−9.9%−0.9%11,199Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-13Bradway Jennifer JofficerSale807 @ $279.28$225K−15.7% of holding−5.2%+1.0%4,326Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13MacLennan DaviddirectorPurchase600 @ $278.51$167K+3.1% of holding−5.2%+1.0%20,253Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-12REICH VICTORIAdirectorSale1,300 @ $271.00$352K−5.0% of holding−5.4%−17.9%24,620Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-15Cook Gregory BofficerSale2,234 @ $253.00$565K−19.6% of holding+1.9%−11.6%9,135Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-07Alfano Nicholas J.officerSale9,930 @ $253.75$2.5M−67.8% of holding−1.8%−19.1%4,708Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-07MacLennan DaviddirectorPurchase500 @ $251.75$126K+2.6% of holding−1.8%−19.1%19,465Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Berger Larry LdirectorSale10,858 @ $266.95$2.9M−40.8% of holding−0.6%−3.7%15,744Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25Bradway Jennifer JofficerSale856 @ $267.37$229K−17.1% of holding−0.7%−3.6%4,140Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-14McKibben Tracy BdirectorSale1,704 @ $264.69$451K−14.9% of holding+4.1%+0.2%9,734Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-13Duijser MachielofficerSale5,721 @ $264.04$1.5M−60.3% of holding+1.9%+0.2%3,774Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13HIGGINS ARTHUR JdirectorSale1,800 @ $263.05$473K−6.4% of holding+1.9%+0.2%26,535Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13MacLennan DaviddirectorPurchase400 @ $264.51$106K+2.2% of holding+1.9%+0.2%18,767Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

265 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Bradway Jennifer JofficerWithheld for tax2,9449,603Form 4
2026-08-03Bradway Jennifer JofficerOption exercise6,4570Form 4
2026-08-03Bradway Jennifer JofficerOption exercise6,45712,548Form 4
2026-08-03Bradway Jennifer JofficerOption exercise6,45712,548Form 4
2026-07-30Kirkland Scott DofficerOption exercise3,97220,881Form 4
2026-07-30Kirkland Scott DofficerOption exercise3,9720Form 4
2026-06-30Green Eric MarkdirectorAward / grant1444,257Form 4
2026-06-30Ballard Shari LdirectorAward / grant1309,685Form 4
2026-06-30MacLennan DaviddirectorAward / grant4625,427Form 4
2026-06-30MacLennan DaviddirectorAward / grant13025,381Form 4
2026-06-30Vautrinot Suzanne MdirectorAward / grant13011,805Form 4
2026-06-30Gross Marion K.directorAward / grant130597Form 4
2026-06-30Althoff JudsondirectorAward / grant1301,273Form 4
2026-06-30Ballard Shari LdirectorAward / grant1309,555Form 4
2026-06-30Green Eric MarkdirectorAward / grant1304,114Form 4
2026-06-30McKibben Tracy BdirectorAward / grant13011,668Form 4
2026-06-30Doukeris Michel DdirectorAward / grant1308,458Form 4
2026-06-30LARSON MICHAELdirectorAward / grant13019,166Form 4
2026-06-30NOWELL LIONEL L IIIdirectorAward / grant1306,773Form 4
2026-06-30ZILLMER JOHN JdirectorAward / grant13049,365Form 4
2026-06-30Whalen JuliedirectorAward / grant130472Form 4
2026-06-09Brown Darrell RofficerOption exercise10,00042,733Form 4
2026-06-09Brown Darrell RofficerOption exercise10,0000Form 4
2026-05-22Vautrinot Suzanne MdirectorOption exercise2,00013,651Form 4
2026-05-22Vautrinot Suzanne MdirectorWithheld for tax99612,655Form 4
2026-05-22Vautrinot Suzanne MdirectorOption exercise2,0000Form 4
2026-05-15McKibben Tracy BdirectorAward / grant732732Form 4
2026-05-15Vautrinot Suzanne MdirectorAward / grant732732Form 4
2026-05-15Green Eric MarkdirectorAward / grant732732Form 4
2026-05-15MacLennan DaviddirectorAward / grant732732Form 4
2026-05-15LARSON MICHAELdirectorAward / grant732732Form 4
2026-05-15NOWELL LIONEL L IIIdirectorAward / grant732732Form 4
2026-05-15Ballard Shari LdirectorAward / grant732732Form 4
2026-05-15Althoff JudsondirectorAward / grant732732Form 4
2026-05-15Gross Marion K.directorAward / grant732732Form 4
2026-05-15Whalen JuliedirectorAward / grant732732Form 4
2026-05-15Whalen JuliedirectorAward / grant537537Form 4
2026-05-15ZILLMER JOHN JdirectorAward / grant732732Form 4
2026-05-15Doukeris Michel DdirectorAward / grant732732Form 4
2026-05-04Cook Gregory BofficerWithheld for tax3,82916,241Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.