ECG · TickerCove

ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc.Industrials · Engineering & Constructionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $111.28 · now $111.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ECG has typically landed between $89.59 and $144.45 — a range of −19.5% to +29.8% from the issuance price $111.28.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

451 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-10-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($111.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$111.28 · 36% of range

$78.82 low$169.16 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+5.9%

typical move · IQR 16.6%

−19.5%worst (p90)+29.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ECG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $111.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $111.28 (+0.0%)
typical $117.89 (+5.9%)
middle 50% $108.64–$127.14
90% range $89.59–$144.45

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 451 windows spanning 2024-10-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-01-23	−48.7%	−48.7%	+1.9%
2025-02-07	−46.1%	−46.1%	+0.0%
2025-02-06	−45.9%	−46.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-04-21	+65.0%	+0.0%	+71.3%
2025-04-14	+60.8%	−4.7%	+60.8%
2025-04-15	+58.9%	−7.3%	+58.9%

451 overlapping windows · 2024-10-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+4.0%

n=2

Feb

50%

−1.5%

n=2

Mar

−6.6%

n=2

Apr

100%

+16.7%

n=2

May

100%

+22.4%

n=2

Jun

100%

+10.6%

n=2

Jul

50%

−3.8%

n=2

Aug

50%

−1.3%

n=2

Sep

50%

+3.0%

n=2

Oct

100%

+6.0%

n=1

Nov

100%

+12.4%

n=2

Dec

50%

−1.8%

n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-17	SPARBY DAVID M	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $144.95	$145K	+5.4% of holding	−20.0%	not yet — horizon still open	19,658	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07	Sanderson Paul R.	director	Sale	3,300 @ $136.69	$451K	−14.8% of holding	−11.4%	not yet — horizon still open	18,950	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-08	Hernandez Helena Mercedes	director	Purchase	250 @ $92.18	$23K	+13.4% of holding	−5.5%	+43.2%	2,110	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-25	Ryan Edward A	director	Purchase	1,400 @ $38.02	$53K	+10.3% of holding	−8.8%	+76.5%	14,928	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25	Marcy Maximillian J	officer	Purchase	1,300 @ $38.99	$51K	+30.9% of holding	−8.8%	+76.5%	5,508	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18	DELLA ROCCA MICHAEL	director	Purchase	1,050 @ $47.56	$50K	+107.5% of holding	−9.3%	+52.1%	2,027	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

62 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	Rosenthal Dale	director	Award / grant	203	13,582	Form 4
2026-08-31	Ryan Edward A	director	Award / grant	121	20,150	Form 4
2026-05-29	Rosenthal Dale	director	Award / grant	169	13,379	Form 4
2026-05-29	Ryan Edward A	director	Award / grant	100	20,029	Form 4
2026-05-22	Sznewajs Timothy Ryan	officer	Withheld for tax	1,361	13,214	Form 4
2026-05-12	Hernandez Helena Mercedes	director	Award / grant	1,015	3,125	Form 4
2026-05-12	Rosenthal Dale	director	Award / grant	1,184	13,210	Form 4
2026-05-12	SPARBY DAVID M	director	Award / grant	1,015	18,658	Form 4
2026-05-12	Ryan Edward A	director	Award / grant	1,015	19,929	Form 4
2026-05-12	Wood Clark A.	director	Award / grant	1,015	5,392	Form 4
2026-05-12	WYNN BETTY R.	director	Award / grant	1,015	5,392	Form 4
2026-05-12	DELLA ROCCA MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	1,015	7,028	Form 4
2026-02-27	Thiede Jeffrey S	director	Withheld for tax	9,855	117,496	Form 4
2026-02-27	Sanderson Paul R.	director	Withheld for tax	3,775	22,250	Form 4
2026-02-27	Thiede Jeffrey S	director	Withheld for tax	2,142	127,351	Form 4
2026-02-27	Nosbusch Thomas D.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,046	25,896	Form 4
2026-02-27	Hunke Jon B.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,300	11,462	Form 4
2026-02-27	Nosbusch Thomas D.	officer	Withheld for tax	719	27,942	Form 4
2026-02-27	Marcy Maximillian J	officer	Withheld for tax	572	7,710	Form 4
2026-02-27	Sanderson Paul R.	director	Withheld for tax	417	26,025	Form 4
2026-02-27	Sznewajs Timothy Ryan	officer	Withheld for tax	303	14,575	Form 4
2026-02-27	Hendricks Britney A.	officer	Withheld for tax	290	3,782	Form 4
2026-02-27	Behring Jason A.	officer	Withheld for tax	205	2,186	Form 4
2026-02-27	Hunke Jon B.	officer	Withheld for tax	161	12,762	Form 4
2026-02-27	Rosenthal Dale	director	Award / grant	125	12,026	Form 4
2026-02-27	Behring Jason A.	officer	Award / grant	934	2,391	Form 4
2026-02-27	Hendricks Britney A.	officer	Award / grant	1,830	4,072	Form 4
2026-02-27	Thiede Jeffrey S	director	Award / grant	12,011	129,493	Form 4
2026-02-27	Hunke Jon B.	officer	Award / grant	929	12,923	Form 4
2026-02-27	Sznewajs Timothy Ryan	officer	Award / grant	1,424	14,878	Form 4
2026-02-27	Sanderson Paul R.	director	Award / grant	2,456	26,442	Form 4
2026-02-27	Marcy Maximillian J	officer	Award / grant	2,774	8,282	Form 4
2026-02-27	Nosbusch Thomas D.	officer	Award / grant	3,889	28,661	Form 4
2025-11-28	Rosenthal Dale	director	Award / grant	144	11,901	Form 4
2025-08-21	Hernandez Helena Mercedes	director	Award / grant	1,860	1,860	Form 4
2025-06-30	Rosenthal Dale	director	Award / grant	216	11,757	Form 4
2025-05-22	Sznewajs Timothy Ryan	officer	Award / grant	2,480	13,454	Form 4
2025-05-22	WYNN BETTY R.	director	Award / grant	2,887	3,278	Form 4
2025-05-22	WYNN BETTY R.	director	Award / grant	1,099	4,377	Form 4
2025-05-22	Wood Clark A.	director	Award / grant	2,887	3,278	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i