EBS · TickerCove

EBSEmergent BioSolutions Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.75 · now $6.75 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EBS has typically landed between $4.35 and $9.51 — a range of −35.6% to +40.9% from the issuance price $6.75.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,965 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-11-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.75 · 24% of range

$4.45 low$13.9 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−4.6%

typical move · IQR 30.3%

−35.6%worst (p90)+40.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where EBS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.75 (+0.0%)
typical $6.44 (-4.6%)
middle 50% $5.42–$7.46
90% range $4.35–$9.51

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,965 windows spanning 2006-11-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2007-10-17	−52.3%	−52.3%	+3.5%
2007-10-25	−52.0%	−52.0%	+2.2%
2007-10-22	−51.9%	−53.1%	+0.3%
3 best
2024-05-01	+216.6%	+0.0%	+216.6%
2024-04-18	+211.8%	+0.0%	+211.8%
2024-04-30	+203.2%	+0.0%	+208.5%

4,965 overlapping windows · 2006-11-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

70%

+4.2%

n=20

Feb

40%

−1.4%

n=20

Mar

45%

−3.3%

n=20

Apr

45%

−3.4%

n=20

May

60%

+11.1%

n=20

Jun

60%

+0.7%

n=20

Jul

55%

+9.4%

n=20

Aug

45%

−2.5%

n=20

Sep

40%

−2.7%

n=20

Oct

58%

+3.0%

n=19

Nov

58%

−0.2%

n=19

Dec

60%

+4.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-01	Williams Paul Anthony	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $8.40	$25K	−1.9% of holding	−13.0%	not yet — horizon still open	159,098	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-01	Zoon Kathryn C	director	Sale	16,145 @ $8.36	$135K	−16.6% of holding	−8.5%	not yet — horizon still open	80,998	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01	DeGolyer Donald W	director	Sale	14,527 @ $8.36	$121K	−10.0% of holding	−8.5%	not yet — horizon still open	130,675	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01	Dayal Sujata Tyagi	director	Sale	12,781 @ $8.36	$107K	−11.2% of holding	−8.5%	not yet — horizon still open	101,543	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01	Zoon Kathryn C	director	Sale	1,057 @ $8.97	$9K	−1.3% of holding	−8.5%	not yet — horizon still open	79,941	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01	Dayal Sujata Tyagi	director	Sale	980 @ $8.94	$9K	−1.0% of holding	−8.5%	not yet — horizon still open	100,563	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01	DeGolyer Donald W	director	Sale	954 @ $8.96	$9K	−0.7% of holding	−8.5%	not yet — horizon still open	129,721	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-30	Katkin Keith	director	Sale	15,481 @ $8.28	$128K	−13.9% of holding	−2.4%	not yet — horizon still open	96,294	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-01	Williams Paul Anthony	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $8.44	$34K	−6.0% of holding	−8.9%	not yet — horizon still open	62,681	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-05	Richard Ronald	director	Sale	14,884 @ $11.90	$177K	−13.1% of holding	+15.9%	−41.3%	98,417	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05	Richard Ronald	director	Sale	7,100 @ $12.11	$86K	−6.7% of holding	+15.9%	−41.3%	98,417	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-10	DeGolyer Donald W	director	Sale	17,801 @ $10.54	$188K	−12.9% of holding	+4.3%	−33.8%	119,858	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Dayal Sujata Tyagi	director	Sale	8,552 @ $10.00	$86K	−8.8% of holding	+12.6%	−27.0%	88,980	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-07	Glessner Coleen	officer	Sale	30,608 @ $10.00	$306K	−17.5% of holding	+3.0%	−17.0%	144,319	Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2025-08-15	Zoon Kathryn C	director	Sale	7,086 @ $8.87	$63K	−9.0% of holding	−14.0%	+14.3%	71,799	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-12	DeGolyer Donald W	director	Sale	7,844 @ $8.65	$68K	−5.4% of holding	−10.0%	+15.5%	137,659	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-23	Katkin Keith	director	Sale	7,844 @ $6.30	$49K	−8.3% of holding	−0.1%	+42.4%	86,431	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-13	PAPA JOSEPH C	director	Purchase	60,000 @ $5.83	$350K	+21.2% of holding	+9.4%	+68.0%	342,500	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12	Fowler Neal Franklin	director	Sale	35,000 @ $5.83	$204K	−25.7% of holding	−24.9%	+15.4%	101,100	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-12	Zoon Kathryn C	director	Sale	10,000 @ $5.73	$57K	−18.4% of holding	−24.9%	+15.4%	44,482	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

118 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-08	LINDAHL RICHARD S	director	Withheld for tax	3,964	374,083	Form 4
2026-06-08	Glessner Coleen	officer	Withheld for tax	2,018	202,201	Form 4
2026-06-08	Hartzel William	officer	Withheld for tax	1,741	185,558	Form 4
2026-06-08	Williams Paul Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	694	162,098	Form 4
2026-04-30	Dayal Sujata Tyagi	director	Award / grant	11,296	11,296	Form 4
2026-04-30	FOWLER JOHN D JR	director	Award / grant	11,296	11,296	Form 4
2026-04-30	FOWLER JOHN D JR	director	Award / grant	25,344	30,350	Form 4
2026-04-30	Harsanyi Zsolt	director	Award / grant	11,296	11,296	Form 4
2026-04-30	Harsanyi Zsolt	director	Award / grant	25,344	149,076	Form 4
2026-04-30	Fowler Neal Franklin	director	Award / grant	11,296	11,296	Form 4
2026-04-30	Fowler Neal Franklin	director	Award / grant	25,344	160,847	Form 4
2026-04-30	White Marvin L	director	Award / grant	11,296	11,296	Form 4
2026-04-30	White Marvin L	director	Award / grant	25,344	113,839	Form 4
2026-04-30	Zoon Kathryn C	director	Award / grant	25,344	97,143	Form 4
2026-04-30	Zoon Kathryn C	director	Award / grant	11,296	11,296	Form 4
2026-04-30	Katkin Keith	director	Award / grant	25,344	111,775	Form 4
2026-04-30	Katkin Keith	director	Award / grant	11,296	11,296	Form 4
2026-04-30	Richard Ronald	director	Award / grant	25,344	123,761	Form 4
2026-04-30	Richard Ronald	director	Award / grant	11,296	11,296	Form 4
2026-04-30	Dayal Sujata Tyagi	director	Award / grant	25,344	114,324	Form 4
2026-04-30	DeGolyer Donald W	director	Award / grant	25,344	145,202	Form 4
2026-04-30	DeGolyer Donald W	director	Award / grant	11,296	11,296	Form 4
2026-04-29	Williams Paul Anthony	officer	Award / grant	100,111	162,792	Form 4
2026-04-29	PAPA JOSEPH C	director	Award / grant	187,708	493,153	Form 4
2026-04-29	Perl Jessica	officer	Award / grant	104,282	165,286	Form 4
2026-04-29	Glessner Coleen	officer	Award / grant	100,111	204,219	Form 4
2026-04-29	Hartzel William	officer	Award / grant	100,111	187,299	Form 4
2026-04-29	LINDAHL RICHARD S	director	Award / grant	162,680	378,047	Form 4
2026-04-29	Lowry Simon C	officer	Award / grant	100,111	177,914	Form 4
2026-03-05	PAPA JOSEPH C	director	Withheld for tax	37,055	305,445	Form 4
2026-03-05	LINDAHL RICHARD S	director	Withheld for tax	23,650	215,367	Form 4
2026-03-05	Lowry Simon C	officer	Withheld for tax	10,636	77,803	Form 4
2026-03-05	Hartzel William	officer	Withheld for tax	9,493	87,188	Form 4
2026-03-05	Williams Paul Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	9,397	66,681	Form 4
2026-03-05	Glessner Coleen	officer	Withheld for tax	8,199	104,108	Form 4
2026-03-05	Perl Jessica	officer	Withheld for tax	6,465	61,004	Form 4
2026-03-03	FOWLER JOHN D JR	director	Award / grant	5,006	5,006	Form 4
2026-03-03	Hartzel William	officer	Award / grant	44,834	259,545	Form 4
2026-03-03	Perl Jessica	officer	Award / grant	46,702	142,647	Form 4
2026-03-03	Williams Paul Anthony	officer	Award / grant	44,834	254,948	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i