Issued 2026-09-16 at $210.61 · now $210.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EAT has typically landed between $171.80 and $267.38 — a range of −18.4% to +27.0% from the issuance price $210.61.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($210.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EAT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $210.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $210.61 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $216.18 (+2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $195.85–$236.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $171.8–$267.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −81.0% | −81.0% | +0.5% |
| 2020-02-14 | −79.1% | −79.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −76.8% | −81.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-21 | +155.5% | +0.0% | +185.9% |
| 2020-03-30 | +119.0% | −10.9% | +119.0% |
| 2008-11-20 | +116.6% | −16.0% | +140.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+3.9%
n=20
Feb
65%
+3.0%
n=20
Mar
55%
−0.5%
n=20
Apr
55%
+6.9%
n=20
May
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Jun
50%
−2.0%
n=20
Jul
50%
+1.5%
n=20
Aug
45%
+1.8%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Oct
45%
−1.2%
n=20
Nov
75%
+5.7%
n=20
Dec
60%
+4.7%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Katzman James C | director | Sale | 650 @ $220.09 | $143K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Allen Frances L. | director | Sale | 500 @ $234.50 | $117K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,707 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Ware Michaela M | officer | Sale | 3,030 @ $233.48 | $707K | −14.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,494 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | DePinto Joseph Michael | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $230.39 | $5.8M | −24.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 77,812 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Fuller Daniel S | officer | Sale | 1,909 @ $253.54 | $484K | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,177 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Butler James M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $240.37 | $2.4M | −52.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,064 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Hochman Kevin | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $243.15 | $9.7M | −21.7% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 144,090 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Fuller Daniel S | officer | Sale | 9,960 @ $243.43 | $2.4M | −23.7% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,086 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Fuller Daniel S | officer | Sale | 1,837 @ $245.86 | $452K | −4.2% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,046 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | White Aaron M | officer | Sale | 16,220 @ $236.22 | $3.8M | −27.5% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,756 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Felix George S | officer | Sale | 14,349 @ $237.47 | $3.4M | −69.5% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,293 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Comings Douglas N. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $236.29 | $1.2M | −22.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,527 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Hochman Kevin | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $241.41 | $9.7M | −30.8% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,824 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Fuller Daniel S | officer | Sale | 3,964 @ $239.63 | $950K | −9.9% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,123 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Davis Cindy L | director | Sale | 1,775 @ $248.92 | $442K | −16.5% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,973 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Allen Frances L. | director | Sale | 1,999 @ $143.46 | $287K | −13.3% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,041 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Allen Frances L. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $143.60 | $144K | −6.2% of holding | +29.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,040 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Allen Frances L. | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $139.25 | $181K | −7.5% of holding | +30.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,040 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Allen Frances L. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $135.78 | $136K | −5.1% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,588 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Katzman James C | director | Sale | 547 @ $128.11 | $70K | −1.9% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,862 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Katzman James C | director | Sale | 447 @ $164.19 | $73K | −1.5% of holding | −9.2% | +30.3% | 28,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Comings Douglas N. | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $171.48 | $223K | −10.5% of holding | −13.2% | +17.7% | 11,077 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Fuller Daniel S | officer | Sale | 4,042 @ $167.64 | $678K | −9.2% of holding | −15.3% | +22.2% | 40,087 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Ware Michaela M | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $162.40 | $812K | −20.1% of holding | −14.5% | +25.5% | 19,923 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | White Aaron M | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $165.00 | $1.2M | −14.1% of holding | −14.8% | +27.6% | 42,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Felix George S | officer | Sale | 10,431 @ $161.00 | $1.7M | −56.4% of holding | −12.9% | +26.0% | 8,064 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Hood Ramona | director | Sale | 400 @ $161.32 | $65K | −4.2% of holding | −13.4% | +23.1% | 9,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Hochman Kevin | director | Sale | 66,000 @ $160.31 | $10.6M | −33.7% of holding | −10.2% | +24.8% | 129,824 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | EDELMAN HARRIET | director | Sale | 8,400 @ $159.00 | $1.3M | −28.6% of holding | −10.2% | +24.8% | 21,004 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Ranade Prashant | director | Sale | 637 @ $152.70 | $97K | −5.9% of holding | −2.6% | −17.6% | 10,160 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Katzman James C | director | Sale | 428 @ $112.83 | $48K | −1.5% of holding | +27.3% | +11.9% | 28,865 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Comings Douglas N. | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $156.48 | $2.5M | −55.3% of holding | −25.5% | −11.9% | 12,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Ranade Prashant | director | Sale | 511 @ $159.64 | $82K | −4.7% of holding | −24.1% | −18.4% | 10,467 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Hochman Kevin | director | Sale | 44,000 @ $157.82 | $6.9M | −17.1% of holding | −18.0% | −11.8% | 212,867 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | White Aaron M | officer | Sale | 1,080 @ $157.16 | $170K | −2.0% of holding | −18.0% | −11.8% | 52,366 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Felix George S | officer | Sale | 11,769 @ $159.19 | $1.9M | −33.3% of holding | −20.1% | −13.8% | 23,596 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Ranade Prashant | director | Sale | 1,882 @ $154.06 | $290K | −14.9% of holding | −13.0% | −13.1% | 10,729 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | EDELMAN HARRIET | director | Sale | 8,325 @ $157.00 | $1.3M | −22.4% of holding | −5.8% | −4.4% | 28,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | DePinto Joseph Michael | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $170.36 | $1.7M | −9.1% of holding | −3.8% | −32.1% | 99,297 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Ware Michaela M | officer | Sale | 5,712 @ $170.30 | $973K | −22.0% of holding | −1.7% | −29.4% | 20,212 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Bertolone Dominique | officer | Sale | 3,969 @ $153.85 | $611K | −22.9% of holding | +9.2% | −27.1% | 13,346 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | White Aaron M | officer | Sale | 3,590 @ $150.90 | $542K | −9.2% of holding | +14.0% | −41.6% | 35,253 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Comings Douglas N. | officer | Sale | 2,350 @ $135.91 | $319K | −10.2% of holding | +16.1% | −44.6% | 20,591 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Hood Ramona | director | Sale | 777 @ $135.23 | $105K | −8.3% of holding | +16.8% | −46.9% | 8,568 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Comings Douglas N. | officer | Sale | 12,931 @ $159.57 | $2.1M | −33.9% of holding | −4.6% | −7.4% | 25,233 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Comings Douglas N. | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $167.10 | $1.3M | −21.9% of holding | −5.7% | −14.6% | 26,752 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-07 | Ranade Prashant | director | Sale | 5,700 @ $177.09 | $1.0M | −32.0% of holding | −9.2% | −18.1% | 12,137 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Comings Douglas N. | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $187.90 | $1.4M | −18.0% of holding | −15.5% | −22.3% | 34,252 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Davis Cindy L | director | Sale | 5,802 @ $187.86 | $1.1M | −34.3% of holding | −18.1% | −21.8% | 11,107 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-31 | Allen Frances L. | director | Sale | 400 @ $185.53 | $74K | −2.2% of holding | −12.0% | −17.3% | 18,014 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Allen Frances L. | director | Sale | 1,626 @ $180.18 | $293K | −8.1% of holding | −9.9% | −17.9% | 18,414 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
170 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Hochman Kevin | director | Withheld for tax | 7,214 | 144,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | White Aaron M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,203 | 42,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Felix George S | officer | Withheld for tax | 922 | 5,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Comings Douglas N. | officer | Withheld for tax | 762 | 16,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Butler James M | officer | Withheld for tax | 762 | 8,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fuller Daniel S | officer | Withheld for tax | 722 | 29,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ware Michaela M | officer | Withheld for tax | 497 | 20,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Hochman Kevin | director | Withheld for tax | 7,237 | 151,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | White Aaron M | officer | Withheld for tax | 884 | 43,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Felix George S | officer | Withheld for tax | 669 | 6,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Comings Douglas N. | officer | Withheld for tax | 652 | 17,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Fuller Daniel S | officer | Withheld for tax | 633 | 30,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Butler James M | officer | Withheld for tax | 516 | 9,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Ware Michaela M | officer | Withheld for tax | 423 | 21,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Caldwell Christopher M | officer | Withheld for tax | 370 | 4,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Allen Frances L. | director | Award / grant | 166 | 13,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Katzman James C | director | Award / grant | 289 | 25,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | GILES WILLIAM T | director | Award / grant | 308 | 56,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | DePinto Joseph Michael | director | Award / grant | 460 | 102,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | White Aaron M | officer | Award / grant | 1,543 | 44,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | EDELMAN HARRIET | director | Award / grant | 166 | 21,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Davis Cindy L | director | Award / grant | 166 | 9,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Liberio Frank D | director | Award / grant | 166 | 2,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | JOHNSON TIMOTHY A | director | Award / grant | 166 | 1,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Hood Ramona | director | Award / grant | 166 | 9,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Ware Michaela M | officer | Award / grant | 1,543 | 21,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Hochman Kevin | director | Award / grant | 14,964 | 159,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Fuller Daniel S | officer | Award / grant | 1,029 | 31,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Felix George S | officer | Award / grant | 1,286 | 7,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Comings Douglas N. | officer | Award / grant | 1,029 | 18,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Butler James M | officer | Award / grant | 814 | 9,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Caldwell Christopher M | officer | Award / grant | 1,029 | 5,321 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Comings Douglas N. | officer | Gift | 500 | 17,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Hochman Kevin | director | Withheld for tax | 60,152 | 184,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | White Aaron M | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,516 | 58,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Felix George S | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,152 | 20,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Comings Douglas N. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,422 | 22,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Butler James M | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,802 | 19,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Fuller Daniel S | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,480 | 43,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Katzman James C | director | Gift | 3,900 | 25,455 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.