EAFGrafTech International Ltd.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.11 · now $8.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EAF has typically landed between $5.35 and $11.52 — a range of −34.0% to +42.0% from the issuance price $8.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,081 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-04-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EAF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$5.35worst · -34.0%$11.52best · +42.0%
  • now $8.11 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.82 (-3.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.65–$8.99
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.35–$11.52
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,081 windows spanning 2018-04-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-01-16−65.9%−65.9%+0.0%
2026-01-22−65.2%−65.8%+0.0%
2026-01-21−65.1%−65.6%+0.7%
3 best
2024-09-06+179.4%−1.5%+179.4%
2024-09-05+169.1%+0.0%+169.1%
2024-09-09+155.2%+0.0%+183.6%

2,081 overlapping windows · 2018-04-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
25%
−3.8%
n=8
Feb
38%
−6.5%
n=8
Mar
13%
−9.5%
n=8
Apr
38%
+0.9%
n=8
May
44%
+5.4%
n=9
Jun
33%
−7.4%
n=9
Jul
56%
+4.7%
n=9
Aug
33%
−9.8%
n=9
Sep
78%
+13.6%
n=9
Oct
50%
+3.8%
n=8
Nov
75%
+4.1%
n=8
Dec
38%
−4.1%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$20$5↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-05-15Shivaram Sachin MdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $0.84$17K+66.7% of holding+50.8%+46.9%50,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-14Shivaram Sachin MdirectorPurchase30,000 @ $0.85$26Kownership Δ n/a+32.4%+55.9%30,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12Germain Jean-MarcdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $0.78$39K+125.0% of holding+55.8%+44.3%90,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-14Roegner Eric VdirectorPurchase226 @ $1.11$250ownership Δ n/a−32.3%−22.8%226Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-14Roegner Eric VdirectorPurchase100 @ $1.09$110ownership Δ n/a−32.3%−22.8%100Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-13Flanagan Timothy KdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $1.07$54K+212.1% of holding+6.1%+10.2%73,572Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13O'Donnell Rory F.officerPurchase50,000 @ $1.04$52K+100.0% of holding+6.1%+10.2%100,000Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

162 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03O'Donnell Rory F.officerWithheld for tax1,82725,546Form 4
2026-09-03O'Donnell Rory F.officerOption exercise6,1716,171Form 4
2026-09-03O'Donnell Rory F.officerOption exercise6,17127,373Form 4
2026-09-03O'Donnell Rory F.officerOption exercise6,17127,373Form 4
2026-09-03O'Donnell Rory F.officerOption exercise6,17127,373Form 4
2026-09-03O'Donnell Rory F.officerOption exercise6,17127,373Form 4
2026-06-30Germain Jean-MarcdirectorAward / grant5,07626,537Form 4
2026-06-30Roegner Eric VdirectorAward / grant4,86517,083Form 4
2026-06-30Shivaram Sachin MdirectorAward / grant4,86519,140Form 4
2026-05-07Keizer Henry R.directorAward / grant11,17330,849Form 4
2026-05-07Roegner Eric VdirectorAward / grant11,17322,701Form 4
2026-05-07Shivaram Sachin MdirectorAward / grant11,17324,853Form 4
2026-05-07Fine DebradirectorAward / grant11,17333,247Form 4
2026-05-07Germain Jean-MarcdirectorAward / grant11,17333,247Form 4
2026-03-31Roegner Eric VdirectorAward / grant4,24012,219Form 4
2026-03-31Germain Jean-MarcdirectorAward / grant4,42521,461Form 4
2026-03-31Shivaram Sachin MdirectorAward / grant4,24014,276Form 4
2026-03-12Flanagan Timothy KdirectorWithheld for tax4,52544,963Form 4
2026-03-12Clemens Jeremy JosephofficerWithheld for tax1,0598,361Form 4
2026-03-12Renacci Andrew JamesofficerWithheld for tax5268,891Form 4
2026-03-12Perez Ortiz InigoofficerOption exercise10,14410,144Form 4
2026-03-12Flanagan Timothy KdirectorOption exercise15,28415,284Form 4
2026-03-12Clemens Jeremy JosephofficerOption exercise2,9872,987Form 4
2026-03-12Renacci Andrew JamesofficerOption exercise1,8001,800Form 4
2026-03-12Renacci Andrew JamesofficerOption exercise1,8009,417Form 4
2026-03-12Perez Ortiz InigoofficerOption exercise10,14446,226Form 4
2026-03-12Flanagan Timothy KdirectorOption exercise15,28449,488Form 4
2026-03-12Clemens Jeremy JosephofficerOption exercise2,9879,420Form 4
2026-03-12Perez Ortiz InigoofficerOption exercise10,14446,226Form 4
2026-03-12Renacci Andrew JamesofficerOption exercise1,8009,417Form 4
2026-03-12Clemens Jeremy JosephofficerOption exercise2,9879,420Form 4
2026-03-12Flanagan Timothy KdirectorOption exercise15,28449,488Form 4
2026-02-25Flanagan Timothy KdirectorWithheld for tax5,32834,204Form 4
2026-02-25O'Donnell Rory F.officerWithheld for tax2,90421,202Form 4
2026-02-25Renacci Andrew JamesofficerWithheld for tax2,4727,617Form 4
2026-02-25Clemens Jeremy JosephofficerWithheld for tax1,3366,433Form 4
2026-02-25Flanagan Timothy KdirectorWithheld for tax46721,532Form 4
2026-02-25Flanagan Timothy KdirectorWithheld for tax31120,425Form 4
2026-02-25Clemens Jeremy JosephofficerWithheld for tax2033,999Form 4
2026-02-25Renacci Andrew JamesofficerWithheld for tax1502,145Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
David PerdueSenatesale2020-05-082020-04-14$1–15K
David PerdueSenatepurchase2020-04-052020-03-10$1–15K
David PerdueSenatesale2019-11-052019-09-30$1–15K
David PerdueSenatepurchase2019-06-042019-05-29$1–15K
David PerdueSenatepurchase2019-06-042019-05-28$1–15K
David PerdueSenatepurchase2019-06-042019-05-24$1–15K
David PerdueSenatepurchase2019-06-042019-05-23$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.