Issued 2026-09-16 at $287.38 · now $287.38 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DY has typically landed between $245.00 and $355.29 — a range of −14.7% to +23.6% from the issuance price $287.38.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($287.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $287.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $287.38 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $297.28 (+3.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $274.53–$320.03
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $245–$355.29
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −69.6% | −69.6% | +2.4% |
| 2020-02-19 | −66.9% | −70.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −64.4% | −70.0% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +110.5% | +0.0% | +121.8% |
| 2020-03-12 | +85.1% | −14.6% | +89.0% |
| 2009-03-06 | +81.7% | −1.3% | +81.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Peyovich Daniel S | officer | Purchase | 850 @ $296.76 | $252K | +1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 61,343 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | Fallon David Joseph | director | Purchase | 700 @ $286.92 | $201K | +204.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,043 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-09 | Gertel Eitan | director | Sale | 3,645 @ $345.62 | $1.3M | −18.6% of holding | +21.4% | +14.7% | 15,997 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-10 | Pruitt Peter T Jr | director | Sale | 2,900 @ $175.08 | $508K | −16.6% of holding | +6.2% | +34.2% | 14,533 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-18 | Fritzsche Jennifer M | director | Sale | 430 @ $173.11 | $74K | −4.6% of holding | +10.2% | +37.4% | 8,873 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
82 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Lenz Michael C. | director | Award / grant | 343 | 343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fallon David Joseph | director | Award / grant | 343 | 343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Sykes Richard K | director | Award / grant | 114 | 21,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | GALLAGHER PHILIP R | director | Award / grant | 48 | 872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | LeClair Stephen O | director | Award / grant | 42 | 797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fritzsche Jennifer M | director | Award / grant | 32 | 9,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Skillern Raejeanne | director | Award / grant | 29 | 489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fritzsche Jennifer M | director | Gift | 100 | 9,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | LeClair Stephen O | director | Award / grant | 331 | 755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sykes Richard K | director | Award / grant | 331 | 21,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sykes Richard K | director | Award / grant | 142 | 21,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Pruitt Peter T Jr | director | Award / grant | 331 | 15,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fritzsche Jennifer M | director | Award / grant | 331 | 10,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sabater Carmen M | director | Award / grant | 331 | 6,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Skillern Raejeanne | director | Award / grant | 331 | 460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | GALLAGHER PHILIP R | director | Award / grant | 331 | 824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Gertel Eitan | director | Award / grant | 331 | 16,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Skillern Raejeanne | director | Award / grant | 41 | 129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | LeClair Stephen O | director | Award / grant | 28 | 424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | GALLAGHER PHILIP R | director | Award / grant | 28 | 493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Fritzsche Jennifer M | director | Award / grant | 25 | 9,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Peyovich Daniel S | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,862 | 60,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | DeFerrari H Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,176 | 170,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | URNESS RYAN F | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,440 | 39,978 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Ramshaw Jill L | officer | Withheld for tax | 637 | 5,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Floyd Heather M | officer | Withheld for tax | 342 | 5,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Peyovich Daniel S | officer | Award / grant | 13,370 | 68,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Floyd Heather M | officer | Award / grant | 809 | 5,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | URNESS RYAN F | officer | Award / grant | 6,042 | 44,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | DeFerrari H Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 9,313 | 177,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Wetherington Kevin M | officer | Award / grant | 3,604 | 20,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Ramshaw Jill L | officer | Award / grant | 1,177 | 6,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Floyd Heather M | officer | Award / grant | 1,918 | 4,574 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Skillern Raejeanne | director | Award / grant | 88 | 88 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Peyovich Daniel S | officer | Award / grant | 6,899 | 54,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Ramshaw Jill L | officer | Award / grant | 1,124 | 5,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | URNESS RYAN F | officer | Award / grant | 1,695 | 38,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Wetherington Kevin M | officer | Award / grant | 3,942 | 16,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | DeFerrari H Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 2,582 | 167,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Ramshaw Jill L | officer | Withheld for tax | 114 | 3,896 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.