Issued 2026-09-16 at $87.34 · now $87.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DXCM has typically landed between $70.71 and $105.19 — a range of −19.0% to +20.4% from the issuance price $87.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($87.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DXCM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $87.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $87.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $87.42 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $80.71–$94.14
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $70.71–$105.19
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −66.3% | −66.3% | +9.7% |
| 2008-10-23 | −62.3% | −65.9% | +10.8% |
| 2008-10-21 | −60.4% | −60.4% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-04-02 | +97.0% | +0.0% | +100.0% |
| 2008-03-28 | +96.1% | −2.2% | +96.1% |
| 2008-04-01 | +93.5% | +0.0% | +100.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$45.08
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$64.21
- Analyst target · range $64.00–$95.00$86.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$87.34
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | AUGUSTINOS NICHOLAS | director | Sale | 6,539 @ $84.04 | $550K | −18.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $84.04 | $143K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 99,885 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | AUGUSTINOS NICHOLAS | director | Sale | 1,550 @ $84.02 | $130K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,832 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Sylvain Jereme M | officer | Sale | 3,638 @ $83.27 | $303K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 146,828 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Stern Sadie | officer | Sale | 2,565 @ $88.37 | $227K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 126,043 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | SAYER KEVIN R | director | Sale | 19,308 @ $89.71 | $1.7M | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 309,662 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | SAYER KEVIN R | director | Sale | 7,351 @ $90.78 | $667K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 302,311 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | SAYER KEVIN R | director | Sale | 97 @ $91.41 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 302,214 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $91.93 | $156K | −1.6% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,953 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Heller Bridgette P | director | Sale | 1,012 @ $88.29 | $89K | −3.3% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,570 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $85.32 | $171K | −3.9% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $80.00 | $160K | −3.8% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,852 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | SAYER KEVIN R | director | Sale | 26,756 @ $76.32 | $2.0M | −7.5% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 328,970 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $74.42 | $127K | −1.6% of holding | +22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,653 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | SAYER KEVIN R | director | Sale | 26,756 @ $72.00 | $1.9M | −7.0% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 355,726 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Sale | 3,801 @ $74.10 | $282K | −6.7% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,051 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $75.55 | $128K | −1.6% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Sale | 199 @ $74.82 | $15K | −0.4% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Coleman Jon | officer | Sale | 4,911 @ $74.13 | $364K | −4.9% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Coleman Jon | officer | Sale | 4,912 @ $73.00 | $359K | −4.7% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,361 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | SAYER KEVIN R | director | Sale | 26,759 @ $72.00 | $1.9M | −6.5% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 382,482 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $59.91 | $102K | −1.5% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,504 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Heller Bridgette P | director | Sale | 1,012 @ $60.01 | $61K | −3.9% of holding | +23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,007 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $63.04 | $107K | −1.5% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 111,204 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $64.85 | $110K | −1.5% of holding | −12.1% | +16.5% | 112,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Heller Bridgette P | director | Sale | 1,012 @ $68.01 | $69K | −3.7% of holding | +3.7% | +23.3% | 26,019 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Collins Richard Alexander | director | Sale | 2,906 @ $59.05 | $172K | −7.6% of holding | +13.3% | +5.5% | 35,088 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Heller Bridgette P | director | Sale | 1,012 @ $58.07 | $59K | −3.6% of holding | +12.6% | −5.4% | 27,031 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Leach Jacob Steven | director | Purchase | 15,700 @ $54.98 | $863K | +5.0% of holding | +22.3% | −2.8% | 329,197 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Collins Richard Alexander | director | Sale | 3,948 @ $55.17 | $218K | −9.4% of holding | +22.3% | −2.8% | 37,994 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Leach Jacob Steven | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $55.43 | $139K | +0.8% of holding | +22.3% | −2.8% | 331,697 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | Malady Kyle | director | Sale | 667 @ $80.86 | $54K | −2.9% of holding | −21.6% | −20.0% | 22,667 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Stern Sadie | officer | Sale | 1,466 @ $80.00 | $117K | −1.4% of holding | −20.4% | −19.9% | 105,223 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Sylvain Jereme M | officer | Sale | 4,824 @ $74.17 | $358K | −3.9% of holding | −15.8% | −9.5% | 118,657 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Sale | 2,555 @ $81.02 | $207K | −4.7% of holding | −8.0% | −19.7% | 51,316 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Sale | 500 @ $80.29 | $40K | −0.5% of holding | −8.0% | −19.7% | 94,102 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Sale | 195 @ $81.54 | $16K | −0.4% of holding | −8.0% | −19.7% | 51,121 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Stern Sadie | officer | Sale | 1,466 @ $88.99 | $130K | −1.4% of holding | −16.3% | −27.5% | 106,689 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Sale | 2,742 @ $85.17 | $234K | −4.8% of holding | −9.3% | −29.3% | 53,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Sale | 500 @ $86.03 | $43K | −0.5% of holding | −9.3% | −29.3% | 94,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Sale | 8 @ $86.03 | $688 | −0.0% of holding | −9.3% | −29.3% | 53,871 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | Stern Sadie | officer | Sale | 1,466 @ $85.06 | $125K | −1.3% of holding | +1.2% | −34.2% | 108,155 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | AUGUSTINOS NICHOLAS | director | Sale | 3,672 @ $82.80 | $304K | −9.9% of holding | −3.2% | −34.4% | 33,411 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Sale | 2,750 @ $83.13 | $229K | −4.6% of holding | −3.2% | −34.4% | 56,621 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Sale | 500 @ $82.80 | $41K | −0.5% of holding | −3.2% | −34.4% | 95,102 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | AUGUSTINOS NICHOLAS | director | Sale | 2,618 @ $81.69 | $214K | −6.6% of holding | −2.3% | −33.2% | 37,083 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Stern Sadie | officer | Sale | 6,184 @ $85.11 | $526K | −5.3% of holding | −4.1% | −40.9% | 109,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $84.28 | $843K | −9.5% of holding | −4.9% | −43.2% | 95,602 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Heller Bridgette P | director | Sale | 352 @ $70.33 | $25K | −1.5% of holding | +2.0% | −9.8% | 22,997 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | SAYER KEVIN R | director | Sale | 32,498 @ $70.38 | $2.3M | −8.0% of holding | +1.0% | −11.0% | 372,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Leach Jacob Steven | director | Sale | 14,076 @ $70.38 | $991K | −4.3% of holding | +1.0% | −11.0% | 313,497 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Sale | 13,000 @ $70.38 | $915K | −11.0% of holding | +1.0% | −11.0% | 105,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Sylvain Jereme M | officer | Sale | 12,001 @ $70.38 | $845K | −8.9% of holding | +1.0% | −11.0% | 123,481 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Stern Sadie | officer | Sale | 11,176 @ $70.38 | $787K | −8.8% of holding | +1.0% | −11.0% | 115,805 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Sylvain Jereme M | officer | Sale | 3,203 @ $74.04 | $237K | −2.3% of holding | −3.0% | −5.8% | 136,609 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Sylvain Jereme M | officer | Sale | 2,670 @ $73.22 | $195K | −1.9% of holding | −3.0% | −5.8% | 139,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Sylvain Jereme M | officer | Sale | 1,127 @ $74.70 | $84K | −0.8% of holding | −3.0% | −5.8% | 135,482 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-29 | SAYER KEVIN R | director | Sale | 33,359 @ $86.91 | $2.9M | −9.5% of holding | +3.5% | −12.2% | 319,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-29 | Leach Jacob Steven | director | Sale | 2,634 @ $86.91 | $229K | −1.0% of holding | +3.5% | −12.2% | 268,644 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-29 | Stern Sadie | officer | Sale | 2,093 @ $86.91 | $182K | −2.7% of holding | +3.5% | −12.2% | 74,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
88 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Boehnlein Glenn S | director | Award / grant | 5,841 | 5,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Leach Jacob Steven | director | Withheld for tax | 1,451 | 418,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,451 | 101,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Stern Sadie | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,451 | 128,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Sylvain Jereme M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,451 | 150,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | AUGUSTINOS NICHOLAS | director | Gift | 1,075 | 37,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ashley Euan A. | director | Award / grant | 5,565 | 12,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Collins Richard Alexander | director | Award / grant | 5,605 | 5,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | GALA RENEE D | director | Award / grant | 5,605 | 12,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | AUGUSTINOS NICHOLAS | director | Award / grant | 5,575 | 5,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Osterloh Albert Frederick IV | director | Award / grant | 1,630 | 8,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | ALTMAN STEVEN R | director | Award / grant | 5,565 | 5,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Driscoll Rimma | director | Award / grant | 5,605 | 17,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Award / grant | 6,331 | 6,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Malady Kyle | director | Award / grant | 5,575 | 28,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Heller Bridgette P | director | Award / grant | 5,575 | 30,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Coleman Jon | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,362 | 105,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Leach Jacob Steven | director | Withheld for tax | 1,451 | 420,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,451 | 108,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Stern Sadie | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,451 | 130,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Sylvain Jereme M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,451 | 151,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Gift | 5,731 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Gift | 5,731 | 56,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Collins Richard Alexander | director | Gift | 5,074 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Collins Richard Alexander | director | Gift | 5,074 | 40,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | AUGUSTINOS NICHOLAS | director | Gift | 5,046 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | AUGUSTINOS NICHOLAS | director | Gift | 5,046 | 38,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | ALTMAN STEVEN R | director | Gift | 5,037 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | ALTMAN STEVEN R | director | Gift | 5,037 | 63,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | SAYER KEVIN R | director | Withheld for tax | 32,498 | 409,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,325 | 114,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Leach Jacob Steven | director | Withheld for tax | 19,757 | 421,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sylvain Jereme M | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,950 | 153,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Stern Sadie | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,199 | 131,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Coleman Jon | officer | Award / grant | 43,897 | 112,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | SAYER KEVIN R | director | Award / grant | 32,749 | 441,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Stern Sadie | officer | Award / grant | 39,019 | 148,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Brown Michael Jon | officer | Award / grant | 39,019 | 137,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sylvain Jereme M | officer | Award / grant | 48,774 | 172,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Leach Jacob Steven | director | Award / grant | 104,516 | 441,567 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Tina Smith | Senate | sale | 2026-05-10 | 2026-04-29 | $100–250K |
| Tina Smith | Senate | sale | 2026-05-10 | 2026-05-07 | $100–250K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.