DX · TickerCove

DXDynex Capital, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.16 · now $12.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DX has typically landed between $10.81 and $13.38 — a range of −11.1% to +10.0% from the issuance price $12.16.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$12.16 · 54% of range

$10.43 low$13.63 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.1%

typical move · IQR 7.2%

−11.1%worst (p90)+10.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where DX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $12.16 (+0.0%)
typical $12.29 (+1.1%)
middle 50% $11.85–$12.72
90% range $10.81–$13.38

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-24	−54.6%	−54.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−50.4%	−50.4%	+2.7%
2020-03-05	−49.0%	−52.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-24	+59.9%	+0.0%	+64.5%
2020-04-01	+50.1%	−0.9%	+60.8%
2020-04-03	+49.9%	+0.0%	+62.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

65%

+2.0%

n=20

Feb

60%

+1.4%

n=20

Mar

65%

−0.3%

n=20

Apr

55%

+2.2%

n=20

May

40%

−0.6%

n=20

Jun

75%

+2.7%

n=20

Jul

50%

+0.5%

n=20

Aug

65%

−0.9%

n=20

Sep

40%

−1.4%

n=20

Oct

55%

+0.7%

n=20

Nov

65%

+2.4%

n=20

Dec

65%

+2.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-27	Popenoe Smriti Laxman	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $12.19	$24K	+0.4% of holding	−2.3%	−14.5%	550,626	Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade
2025-09-26	Popenoe Smriti Laxman	director	Purchase	4,200 @ $12.16	$51K	+1.0% of holding	+10.2%	+15.0%	407,278	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-26	COLLIGAN ROBERT S	officer	Purchase	4,200 @ $12.12	$51K	+3.6% of holding	+10.2%	+15.0%	120,857	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-26	Popenoe Smriti Laxman	director	Purchase	60 @ $12.12	$727	+0.0% of holding	+10.2%	+15.0%	407,338	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

53 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-08	Popenoe Smriti Laxman	director	Withheld for tax	19,528	531,098	Form 4
2026-09-08	BOSTON BYRON L	director	Withheld for tax	15,667	883,567	Form 4
2026-06-15	Neal Douglas E	director	Award / grant	10,372	10,372	Form 4
2026-05-22	Coronado Julia Lynn	director	Award / grant	11,400	57,070	Form 4
2026-05-22	Gray Andrew I.	director	Award / grant	11,400	33,131	Form 4
2026-05-22	Chandoha Marie A	director	Award / grant	11,400	31,826	Form 4
2026-05-22	Crawford Alexander I.	director	Award / grant	11,400	33,131	Form 4
2026-03-04	Childress Jeffrey L	officer	Award / grant	18,275	37,554	Form 4
2026-03-04	Sartori Michael Andrew	officer	Award / grant	25,054	35,579	Form 4
2026-03-04	BOSTON BYRON L	director	Award / grant	136,006	899,234	Form 4
2026-03-04	Popenoe Smriti Laxman	director	Award / grant	136,006	548,626	Form 4
2026-02-28	BOSTON BYRON L	director	Withheld for tax	34,069	792,230	Form 4
2026-02-28	Popenoe Smriti Laxman	director	Withheld for tax	32,514	441,111	Form 4
2026-02-28	BOSTON BYRON L	director	Withheld for tax	29,002	763,228	Form 4
2026-02-28	Popenoe Smriti Laxman	director	Withheld for tax	28,491	412,620	Form 4
2026-02-28	Sartori Michael Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	1,593	10,525	Form 4
2026-02-28	Childress Jeffrey L	officer	Withheld for tax	769	19,716	Form 4
2026-02-28	Childress Jeffrey L	officer	Withheld for tax	437	19,279	Form 4
2026-02-28	Popenoe Smriti Laxman	director	Award / grant	66,287	473,625	Form 4
2026-02-28	BOSTON BYRON L	director	Award / grant	86,579	826,299	Form 4
2025-09-08	Popenoe Smriti Laxman	director	Withheld for tax	18,954	403,078	Form 4
2025-09-08	BOSTON BYRON L	director	Withheld for tax	15,206	739,720	Form 4
2025-05-28	COLLIGAN ROBERT S	officer	Award / grant	45,596	116,657	Form 4
2025-05-28	Popenoe Smriti Laxman	director	Award / grant	18,479	422,032	Form 4
2025-05-28	BOSTON BYRON L	director	Award / grant	18,479	754,926	Form 4
2025-05-28	Childress Jeffrey L	officer	Award / grant	3,734	20,485	Form 4
2025-05-23	Gray Andrew I.	director	Award / grant	1,665	21,731	Form 4
2025-05-23	Chandoha Marie A	director	Award / grant	10,549	10,549	Form 4
2025-05-23	Chandoha Marie A	director	Award / grant	9,877	20,426	Form 4
2025-05-23	Coronado Julia Lynn	director	Award / grant	10,549	40,148	Form 4
2025-05-23	Coronado Julia Lynn	director	Award / grant	5,522	45,670	Form 4
2025-05-23	Crawford Alexander I.	director	Award / grant	10,549	20,066	Form 4
2025-05-23	Crawford Alexander I.	director	Award / grant	1,665	21,731	Form 4
2025-05-23	Gray Andrew I.	director	Award / grant	10,549	20,066	Form 4
2025-05-23	Palmer Joy D	director	Award / grant	10,549	40,148	Form 4
2025-05-23	Palmer Joy D	director	Award / grant	5,522	45,670	Form 4
2025-03-10	BOSTON BYRON L	director	Withheld for tax	13,199	736,447	Form 4
2025-03-10	Popenoe Smriti Laxman	director	Withheld for tax	10,519	403,553	Form 4
2025-03-10	COLLIGAN ROBERT S	officer	Withheld for tax	4,966	71,061	Form 4
2025-03-08	Childress Jeffrey L	officer	Withheld for tax	374	16,751	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i