DWTX · TickerCove

DWTXDogwood Therapeutics, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.70 · now $1.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DWTX has typically landed between $0.88 and $2.84 — a range of −48.1% to +66.9% from the issuance price $1.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,417 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$1.7 · 5% of range

$1.34 low$7.91 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−3.3%

typical move · IQR 32.7%

−48.1%worst (p90)+66.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where DWTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $1.7 (+0.0%)
typical $1.64 (-3.3%)
middle 50% $1.37–$1.92
90% range $0.8815–$2.84

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,417 windows spanning 2020-12-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-09-16	−96.5%	−96.5%	+0.0%
2022-09-15	−95.8%	−95.8%	+13.0%
2022-09-13	−95.5%	−95.7%	+9.9%
3 best
2024-12-19	+650.0%	−19.4%	+650.0%
2024-12-20	+543.6%	−20.1%	+643.6%
2024-12-27	+402.8%	−33.7%	+517.0%

1,417 overlapping windows · 2020-12-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+64.4%

n=6

Feb

17%

−15.4%

n=6

Mar

50%

+0.4%

n=6

Apr

33%

+9.0%

n=6

May

50%

+16.7%

n=6

Jun

17%

−2.3%

n=6

Jul

67%

+16.5%

n=6

Aug

50%

−0.7%

n=6

Sep

33%

−16.2%

n=6

Oct

20%

−19.4%

n=5

Nov

80%

−2.9%

n=5

Dec

40%

−11.2%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-16	De La Rosa Abel	director	Award / grant	16,800	16,800	Form 4
2026-06-16	Thomas John C	director	Award / grant	16,800	16,800	Form 4
2026-06-16	Whitley Richard James	director	Award / grant	16,800	16,800	Form 4
2026-06-16	Keefer David R	director	Award / grant	16,800	16,800	Form 4
2026-03-05	Walsh Angela	officer	Award / grant	82,500	82,500	Form 4
2026-03-05	Grosswald Ralph	officer	Award / grant	82,500	82,500	Form 4
2026-03-05	Gendreau Roger Michael	officer	Award / grant	82,500	82,500	Form 4
2026-03-05	Duncan Gregory Scott	director	Award / grant	330,000	330,000	Form 4
2025-12-04	Gendreau Roger Michael	officer	Award / grant	150,000	150,000	Form 4
2025-12-04	Walsh Angela	officer	Award / grant	150,000	150,000	Form 4
2025-12-04	Grosswald Ralph	officer	Award / grant	150,000	150,000	Form 4
2025-12-04	Duncan Gregory Scott	director	Award / grant	460,000	460,000	Form 4
2025-11-21	Sealbond Ltd	director	Conversion	284	0	Form 4
2025-11-21	Sealbond Ltd	director	Conversion	2,161	0	Form 4
2025-11-21	Sealbond Ltd	director	Conversion	21,610,950	21,822,333	Form 4
2025-11-21	Sealbond Ltd	director	Conversion	2,842,638	2,842,638	Form 4
2025-11-21	Sealbond Ltd	director	Conversion	21,610,950	21,822,333	Form 4
2025-11-21	Sealbond Ltd	director	Conversion	2,842,638	2,842,638	Form 4
2025-11-21	Sealbond Ltd	director	Conversion	21,610,950	21,822,333	Form 4
2025-11-21	Sealbond Ltd	director	Conversion	21,610,950	21,822,333	Form 4
2025-11-21	Sealbond Ltd	director	Conversion	2,842,638	2,842,638	Form 4
2025-11-21	Sealbond Ltd	director	Conversion	2,842,638	2,842,638	Form 4
2025-06-27	Gendreau Roger Michael	officer	Award / grant	12,075	12,075	Form 4
2025-06-27	Whitley Richard James	director	Award / grant	2,362	2,362	Form 4
2025-06-27	Keefer David R	director	Award / grant	2,362	2,362	Form 4
2025-06-27	Duncan Gregory Scott	director	Award / grant	40,000	40,000	Form 4
2025-06-27	De La Rosa Abel	director	Award / grant	2,362	2,362	Form 4
2025-06-27	Grosswald Ralph	officer	Award / grant	12,075	12,075	Form 4
2025-06-27	Thomas John C	director	Award / grant	2,362	2,362	Form 4
2025-06-27	Walsh Angela	officer	Award / grant	12,075	12,075	Form 4
2025-06-18	Whitley Richard James	director	Award / grant	210	420	Form 4
2025-06-18	Keefer David R	director	Award / grant	210	210	Form 4
2025-06-18	Keefer David R	director	Award / grant	210	420	Form 4
2025-06-18	Whitley Richard James	director	Award / grant	210	210	Form 4
2025-06-18	Thomas John C	director	Award / grant	210	210	Form 4
2025-06-18	Thomas John C	director	Award / grant	210	420	Form 4
2025-06-18	De La Rosa Abel	director	Award / grant	210	210	Form 4
2025-06-18	De La Rosa Abel	director	Award / grant	210	420	Form 4
2025-03-12	CK Life Sciences Intl (Holdings) Inc	director	Award / grant	284	284	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i