DVNDevon Energy CorporationEnergy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $48.44 · now $48.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DVN has typically landed between $41.38 and $56.97 — a range of −14.6% to +17.6% from the issuance price $48.44.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($48.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DVN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $48.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$41.38worst · -14.6%$56.97best · +17.6%
  • now $48.44 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $49.12 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $45.9–$52.35
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $41.38–$56.97
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−75.4%−75.4%+2.5%
2020-02-20−72.3%−75.4%+0.0%
2020-02-14−71.4%−71.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-30+98.7%+0.0%+98.7%
2020-10-28+82.5%+0.0%+88.9%
2020-03-31+80.6%−1.6%+82.8%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$28.0B
market cap
$3.59
EPS (TTM)
12.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$17.2B
'20'25
Net income$2.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr17.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.57
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $48.44$40.64$103.85
  • DCF (intrinsic)$99.49
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$72.78
  • Analyst target · range $45.00–$68.00$62.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$48.44

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.2%
n=18
Feb
63%
−0.2%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.5%
n=19
Apr
68%
+8.2%
n=19
May
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.2%
n=19
Jul
58%
+0.0%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.4%
n=19
Oct
39%
−0.8%
n=18
Nov
56%
+4.3%
n=18
Dec
56%
−0.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$52$312026-09-14: 1 insider sale, $344K — Lowe Robert Ferrall III2026-09-14: 1 insider purchase, $200K — Gaspar Clay M2026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $841K — Alexander Andrea2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Vela Adam M2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $3.3M — Ritenour Jeffrey L2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $257K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $4.4M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $841K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $200K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $344K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Lowe Robert Ferrall III — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed same daydirector Gaspar Clay M — Purchase on 2026-09-14, filed same dayofficer Alexander Andrea — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Vela Adam M — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ritenour Jeffrey L — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Lowe Robert Ferrall IIIdirectorSale6,756 @ $50.95$344K−8.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open72,720Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-14Gaspar Clay MdirectorPurchase3,913 @ $51.08$200K+0.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open619,152Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-10Alexander AndreaofficerSale18,000 @ $46.74$841K−11.5% of holding−9.0%not yet — horizon still open138,529Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-14Vela Adam MofficerSale24,342 @ $47.21$1.1M−15.7% of holding−8.1%not yet — horizon still open130,540Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Ritenour Jeffrey LofficerSale70,029 @ $46.66$3.3M−14.0% of holding+1.6%not yet — horizon still open428,452Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11KINDICK KELTdirectorSale7,685 @ $33.46$257K−19.5% of holding+5.5%+24.6%31,801Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

199 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Gaspar Clay MdirectorAward / grant53,979615,239Form 4
2026-07-01JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorGift7,6840Form 4
2026-07-01JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorGift7,6842,416,436Form 4
2026-06-30Brock Amanda MdirectorAward / grant5,56761,301Form 4
2026-06-30Kurz Karl FdirectorAward / grant5,56794,315Form 4
2026-06-30Hernandez Jacinto JdirectorAward / grant5,56712,368Form 4
2026-06-30Fox Ann GdirectorAward / grant5,56749,243Form 4
2026-06-30KINDICK KELTdirectorAward / grant5,56737,368Form 4
2026-06-30SMOLIK BRENT JdirectorAward / grant5,56712,662Form 4
2026-06-30WATTS MARCUS AdirectorAward / grant5,56761,301Form 4
2026-06-30Shellebarger Jeffrey EarledirectorAward / grant5,56712,082Form 4
2026-06-30JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorAward / grant7,6847,684Form 4
2026-06-30Williams ValeriedirectorAward / grant5,56752,034Form 4
2026-06-10Lowe Robert Ferrall IIIdirectorAward / grant30,04379,476Form 4
2026-05-15JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorWithheld for tax52,806468,042Form 4
2026-05-15JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorWithheld for tax52,806365,564Form 4
2026-05-15JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorWithheld for tax49,672418,370Form 4
2026-05-15JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorWithheld for tax49,672315,892Form 4
2026-05-15JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorGift315,8922,408,753Form 4
2026-05-15JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorGift315,8920Form 4
2026-05-07Alexander AndreaofficerAward / grant22,951132,130Form 4
2026-05-07Alexander AndreaofficerAward / grant24,399156,529Form 4
2026-05-07Brock Amanda MdirectorAward / grant55,73455,734Form 4
2026-05-07JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorAward / grant2,092,8612,092,861Form 4
2026-05-07JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorAward / grant260,424260,424Form 4
2026-05-07JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorAward / grant126,230386,654Form 4
2026-05-07JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorAward / grant134,194520,848Form 4
2026-05-07Conaway Gregory FofficerAward / grant18,36118,361Form 4
2026-05-07Conaway Gregory FofficerAward / grant18,36118,361Form 4
2026-05-07DeShazer Michael D.officerAward / grant63,77963,779Form 4
2026-05-07DeShazer Michael D.officerAward / grant70,271134,050Form 4
2026-05-07DeShazer Michael D.officerAward / grant36,722170,772Form 4
2026-05-07DeShazer Michael D.officerAward / grant33,549204,321Form 4
2026-05-07Hernandez Jacinto JdirectorAward / grant6,8016,801Form 4
2026-05-07Shellebarger Jeffrey EarledirectorAward / grant6,5056,515Form 4
2026-05-07JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorAward / grant2,092,8612,092,861Form 4
2026-05-07JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorAward / grant260,424260,424Form 4
2026-05-07JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorAward / grant126,230386,654Form 4
2026-05-07JORDEN THOMAS EdirectorAward / grant134,194520,848Form 4
2026-05-07SIRGO BLAKE AofficerAward / grant58,49758,497Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-24$50–100K
Kevin HernHouseexchange2026-06-022026-05-08$15–50K
Kevin HernHouseexchange2026-06-022026-05-08$15–50K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2026-05-082026-04-09$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-12-08$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-06-222025-05-08$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-05-082025-04-07$15–50K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-05-062025-05-05$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-04-112025-04-09$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-03-092025-02-24$15–50K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-02-142025-02-12$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-01-272025-01-21$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.