DVADaVita Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Care Facilitiesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $193.86 · now $193.86 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DVA has typically landed between $166.63 and $224.95 — a range of −14.0% to +16.0% from the issuance price $193.86.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($193.86) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DVA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $193.86 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$166.63worst · -14.0%$224.95best · +16.0%
  • now $193.86 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $195.1 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $183.35–$206.86
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $166.63–$224.95
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-09-13−27.0%−27.0%+2.2%
2026-07-31−26.7%−27.6%+0.0%
2026-07-23−25.8%−25.8%+2.9%
3 best
2026-01-28+47.6%+0.0%+47.6%
2026-01-27+44.4%+0.0%+44.4%
2026-01-29+43.6%+0.0%+45.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$15.1B
market cap
$9.94
EPS (TTM)
23.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$13.6B
'20'25
Net income$747M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr5.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-114.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-23.12
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $193.86$187.55$279.07
  • DCF (intrinsic)$205.40
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$272.76
  • Analyst target · range $218.00–$270.00$235.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$193.86

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+3.3%
n=18
Feb
53%
+2.7%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.2%
n=19
Apr
68%
+1.5%
n=19
May
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
58%
+3.2%
n=19
Jul
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Aug
42%
−2.2%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Oct
44%
−2.7%
n=18
Nov
67%
+5.8%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$241$1042026-07-31: 1 insider sale, $36.5M — BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC2026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $8.2M — Rodriguez Javier2026-06-15: 3 insider sales, $9.5M — Rodriguez Javier, Waters Kathleen Alyce …2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $2.9M — HEARTY JAMES O2026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $2.7M — Maughan David Paul2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Maughan David Paul2026-05-07: 1 insider sale, $9.9M — ACKERMAN JOEL2026-05-06: 1 insider sale, $382K — HEARTY JAMES O2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $182.9M — BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC2026-01-29: 1 insider sale, $199.9M — BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC2025-10-27: 1 insider sale, $54.3M — BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $54.3M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $199.9M2026-05: 6 open-market sales, $200.1M2026-06: 4 open-market sales, $17.7M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $36.5M↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Rodriguez Javier — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Rodriguez Javier — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Waters Kathleen Alyce — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Waters Kathleen Alyce — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer HEARTY JAMES O — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Maughan David Paul — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Maughan David Paul — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ACKERMAN JOEL — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer HEARTY JAMES O — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC — Sale on 2026-01-29, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale182,980 @ $199.55$36.5M−0.6% of holding−29.4%not yet — horizon still open28,697,229Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-16Rodriguez JavierdirectorSale39,407 @ $209.28$8.2M−4.5% of holding+14.1%not yet — horizon still open840,408Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15Rodriguez JavierdirectorSale30,000 @ $209.50$6.3M−3.3% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open879,815Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Waters Kathleen AlyceofficerSale8,950 @ $207.84$1.9M−7.2% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open115,649Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Waters Kathleen AlyceofficerSale6,455 @ $209.17$1.4M−5.6% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open109,194Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15HEARTY JAMES OofficerSale15,000 @ $193.98$2.9M−40.1% of holding+3.1%not yet — horizon still open22,389Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-12Maughan David PaulofficerSale13,456 @ $199.25$2.7M−12.5% of holding+1.7%not yet — horizon still open94,105Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Maughan David PaulofficerSale7,073 @ $199.15$1.4M−6.2% of holding+1.7%not yet — horizon still open107,561Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-07ACKERMAN JOELdirectorSale51,471 @ $192.10$9.9M−28.0% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open132,434Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-06HEARTY JAMES OofficerSale2,184 @ $174.87$382K−5.7% of holding−1.4%not yet — horizon still open35,953Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale1,220,376 @ $149.84$182.9M−4.1% of holding+18.5%not yet — horizon still open28,880,209Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-29BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale1,658,480 @ $120.56$199.9M−5.2% of holding+44.7%+115.7%30,100,585Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-27BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale401,514 @ $135.36$54.3M−1.2% of holding−4.8%+12.9%31,759,065Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-31BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale1,635,962 @ $140.61$230.0M−4.8% of holding−3.9%−32.2%32,160,579Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-23HEARTY JAMES OofficerSale2,351 @ $150.00$353K−8.3% of holding−9.3%−37.1%26,038Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale71,966 @ $139.56$10.0M−0.2% of holding−3.0%−28.4%33,808,519Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-27BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale19,330 @ $138.59$2.7M−0.1% of holding−3.0%−28.4%33,880,485Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-27BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale11,978 @ $140.18$1.7M−0.0% of holding−3.0%−28.4%33,796,541Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-23BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale36,094 @ $138.19$5.0M−0.1% of holding−3.6%−27.4%33,900,615Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-23BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale27,172 @ $137.28$3.7M−0.1% of holding−3.6%−27.4%33,936,709Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-23BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale800 @ $138.60$111K−0.0% of holding−3.6%−27.4%33,899,815Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-22BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale31,404 @ $138.94$4.4M−0.1% of holding−2.6%−29.3%33,965,137Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-22BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale1,256 @ $139.88$176K−0.0% of holding−2.6%−29.3%33,963,881Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-08BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale1,145,938 @ $147.11$168.6M−3.3% of holding−10.2%−34.7%33,996,541Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-19BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale65,482 @ $153.60$10.1M−0.2% of holding+3.9%−16.0%35,206,935Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-19BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale54,979 @ $154.47$8.5M−0.2% of holding+3.9%−16.0%35,151,956Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-19BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale9,477 @ $155.25$1.5M−0.0% of holding+3.9%−16.0%35,142,479Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-18BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale50,016 @ $154.72$7.7M−0.1% of holding+3.9%−17.1%35,302,932Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale39,531 @ $153.69$6.1M−0.1% of holding+3.9%−17.1%35,352,948Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale28,515 @ $155.41$4.4M−0.1% of holding+3.9%−17.1%35,274,417Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale1,800 @ $158.01$284K−0.0% of holding+3.9%−17.1%35,272,417Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale200 @ $156.11$31K−0.0% of holding+3.9%−17.1%35,274,217Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-14BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale91,987 @ $154.70$14.2M−0.3% of holding+2.9%−21.5%35,623,831Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale77,665 @ $153.66$11.9M−0.2% of holding+2.9%−21.5%35,715,818Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale70,460 @ $155.54$11.0M−0.2% of holding+2.9%−21.5%35,553,371Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale66,208 @ $156.68$10.4M−0.2% of holding+2.9%−21.5%35,487,163Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale65,483 @ $157.74$10.3M−0.2% of holding+2.9%−21.5%35,421,680Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale34,789 @ $152.70$5.3M−0.1% of holding+2.9%−21.5%35,793,483Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale34,132 @ $150.78$5.1M−0.1% of holding+2.9%−21.5%35,858,347Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale30,075 @ $151.60$4.6M−0.1% of holding+2.9%−21.5%35,828,272Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale27,901 @ $158.41$4.4M−0.1% of holding+2.9%−21.5%35,393,779Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale1,300 @ $159.16$207K−0.0% of holding+2.9%−21.5%35,392,479Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-11BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerSale203,091 @ $156.01$31.7M−0.6% of holding−9.9%−29.7%35,892,479Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

141 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-15Hollar Jason M.directorAward / grant2786,883Form 4
2026-08-15Arway Pamela MdirectorAward / grant27827,223Form 4
2026-08-15YALE PHYLLIS RdirectorAward / grant2789,803Form 4
2026-08-15Schoppert Wendy LeedirectorAward / grant278278Form 4
2026-08-15Pullin Dennis WdirectorAward / grant2782,949Form 4
2026-08-15Moore Gregory J.directorAward / grant2788,091Form 4
2026-08-15Schechter Adam HdirectorAward / grant2785,970Form 4
2026-08-15DESOER BARBARA JdirectorAward / grant278278Form 4
2026-05-26YALE PHYLLIS RdirectorGift5,0389,525Form 4
2026-05-15Arway Pamela MdirectorAward / grant25026,945Form 4
2026-05-15Moore Gregory J.directorAward / grant2507,813Form 4
2026-05-15Schechter Adam HdirectorAward / grant2505,692Form 4
2026-05-15Schoppert Wendy LeedirectorAward / grant250250Form 4
2026-05-15YALE PHYLLIS RdirectorAward / grant25014,563Form 4
2026-05-15Pullin Dennis WdirectorAward / grant2502,671Form 4
2026-05-15Hollar Jason M.directorAward / grant2506,605Form 4
2026-05-15DESOER BARBARA JdirectorAward / grant250250Form 4
2026-05-14HEARTY JAMES OofficerDisposition3,23138,506Form 4
2026-05-14HEARTY JAMES OofficerOption exercise5,78441,737Form 4
2026-05-14HEARTY JAMES OofficerWithheld for tax1,11737,389Form 4
2026-05-14HEARTY JAMES OofficerOption exercise5,7840Form 4
2026-03-15ACKERMAN JOELdirectorWithheld for tax33,693189,670Form 4
2026-03-15Waters Kathleen AlyceofficerWithheld for tax26,118129,887Form 4
2026-03-15HEARTY JAMES OofficerWithheld for tax8,98439,962Form 4
2026-03-15Maughan David PaulofficerWithheld for tax7,768114,467Form 4
2026-03-15ACKERMAN JOELdirectorWithheld for tax5,765183,905Form 4
2026-03-15Maughan David PaulofficerWithheld for tax5,339122,235Form 4
2026-03-15Waters Kathleen AlyceofficerWithheld for tax4,348124,599Form 4
2026-03-15ACKERMAN JOELdirectorWithheld for tax3,362223,363Form 4
2026-03-15Waters Kathleen AlyceofficerWithheld for tax2,457156,005Form 4
2026-03-15HEARTY JAMES OofficerWithheld for tax1,52538,137Form 4
2026-03-15Waters Kathleen AlyceofficerWithheld for tax940128,947Form 4
2026-03-15HEARTY JAMES OofficerWithheld for tax76948,946Form 4
2026-03-15HEARTY JAMES OofficerWithheld for tax30039,662Form 4
2026-03-15Rodriguez JavierdirectorAward / grant20,900909,815Form 4
2026-03-15ACKERMAN JOELdirectorAward / grant5,706226,725Form 4
2026-03-15Waters Kathleen AlyceofficerAward / grant8,6108,610Form 4
2026-03-15YALE PHYLLIS RdirectorAward / grant33214,313Form 4
2026-03-15Moore Gregory J.directorAward / grant3327,563Form 4
2026-03-15Schechter Adam HdirectorAward / grant3325,442Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-10-072025-09-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-06-102025-05-28$1–15K
Jerry MoranSenatesale2024-01-172023-12-14$1–15K
Jerry MoranSenatesale2024-01-172023-12-14$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2024-01-122023-12-12$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2023-07-142023-06-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-07-112023-06-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-06-122023-05-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-04-072023-03-24$1–15K
Jerry MoranSenatesale2022-01-212021-12-21$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2020-01-292019-12-05$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2020-01-292019-12-08$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.