Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.30 · now $8.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DUOT has typically landed between $5.77 and $12.19 — a range of −30.5% to +46.9% from the issuance price $8.30.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,845 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-04-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DUOT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.3 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.27 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.96–$9.57
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.77–$12.19
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2017-11-29 | −73.0% | −73.0% | +0.0% |
| 2017-12-08 | −68.4% | −69.0% | +0.0% |
| 2017-12-11 | −68.4% | −69.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2017-01-30 | +733.3% | +0.0% | +733.3% |
| 2017-02-07 | +654.3% | +0.0% | +705.9% |
| 2017-01-27 | +566.7% | +0.0% | +566.7% |
2,845 overlapping windows · 2015-04-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-23 | Goldfarb Adrian Graham | officer | Sale | 9,285 @ $7.77 | $72K | −95.1% of holding | −16.3% | −9.7% | 477 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Goldfarb Adrian Graham | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $7.85 | $10K | −11.8% of holding | −5.0% | +0.3% | 9,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
71 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Lonegro Frank A | director | Award / grant | 2,074 | 40,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | James Brian J. | director | Award / grant | 2,074 | 8,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ferry Charles Parker | director | Award / grant | 2,074 | 2,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | MAVROMMATIS NED | director | Award / grant | 1,659 | 65,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Nixon James Craig | director | Award / grant | 1,556 | 78,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Goldfarb Adrian Graham | officer | Award / grant | 1,532 | 2,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ferry Charles Parker | director | Other acquisition | 261,444 | 261,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ferry Charles Parker | director | Other acquisition | 261,444 | 261,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Lonegro Frank A | director | Award / grant | 3,735 | 38,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Nixon James Craig | director | Award / grant | 3,735 | 77,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | James Brian J. | director | Award / grant | 3,735 | 5,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | MAVROMMATIS NED | director | Award / grant | 2,988 | 53,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Nixon James Craig | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 73,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | MAVROMMATIS NED | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 50,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lonegro Frank A | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 34,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Brown Leah F. | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Brown Leah F. | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Nixon James Craig | director | Award / grant | 2,185 | 63,468 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Lonegro Frank A | director | Award / grant | 2,185 | 24,811 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | MAVROMMATIS NED | director | Award / grant | 1,748 | 40,896 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | James Brian J. | director | Award / grant | 1,638 | 2,221 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Goldfarb Adrian Graham | officer | Award / grant | 715 | 3,981 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Ferry Charles Parker | director | Award / grant | 648 | 5,044 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Brown Leah F. | officer | Award / grant | 228 | 228 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Nixon James Craig | director | Award / grant | 2,018 | 61,283 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Lonegro Frank A | director | Award / grant | 2,018 | 22,626 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | MAVROMMATIS NED | director | Award / grant | 1,346 | 39,148 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | James Brian J. | director | Award / grant | 583 | 583 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | King Christopher T. | officer | Disposition | 112,500 | 112,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | King Christopher T. | officer | Disposition | 112,500 | 112,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Goldfarb Adrian Graham | officer | Award / grant | 2,789 | 3,266 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Lonegro Frank A | director | Award / grant | 2,032 | 20,608 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Nixon James Craig | director | Award / grant | 2,032 | 59,265 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | MAVROMMATIS NED | director | Award / grant | 1,355 | 37,802 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Ferry Charles Parker | director | Award / grant | 662 | 4,396 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-09 | EHRMAN KENNETH S | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 91,768 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-09 | EHRMAN KENNETH S | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 91,768 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | MAVROMMATIS NED | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | EHRMAN KENNETH S | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | MAVROMMATIS NED | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.