DUKDuke Energy CorporationUtilities · Regulated Electricas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $117.76 · now $117.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DUK has typically landed between $109.48 and $127.19 — a range of −7.0% to +8.0% from the issuance price $117.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($117.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DUK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $117.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$109.48worst · -7.0%$127.19best · +8.0%
  • now $117.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $118.58 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $114.68–$122.48
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $109.48–$127.19
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−37.4%−37.4%+0.0%
2020-02-20−32.6%−32.6%+1.0%
2020-02-24−30.1%−37.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+35.9%+0.0%+41.0%
2020-03-20+24.9%−6.2%+32.2%
2020-03-24+19.1%+0.0%+26.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$101.8B
market cap
$6.53
EPS (TTM)
20.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$32.2B
'20'25
Net income$5.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$1.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.75
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $117.76$74.13$152.84
  • DCF (intrinsic)$79.56
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$147.41
  • Analyst target · range $134.00–$140.00$137.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$117.76

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
72%
+1.4%
n=18
Feb
42%
−1.3%
n=19
Mar
79%
+2.5%
n=19
Apr
79%
+1.6%
n=19
May
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.1%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
58%
−0.2%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.2%
n=19
Oct
72%
+1.9%
n=18
Nov
50%
+0.5%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$132$1122026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $438K — Renjel Louis E.2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — Sideris Harry K.2026-03-02: 3 insider sales, $2.5M — Ghartey-Tagoe Kodwo, Repko Regis T. …2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $123K — Repko Regis T.2026-02-23: 2 insider sales, $1.5M — Savoy Brian D …2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $557K — Repko Regis T.2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $868K — Renjel Louis E.2025-11-19: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Glenn Robert Alexander2025-11-18: 1 insider sale, $101K — Renjel Louis E.2025-08-20: 1 insider sale, $249K — Titone Bonnie B.2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $49K — Weintraub Alexander J.2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $833K — Gillespie Thomas Preston Jr.2025-08: 5 open-market sales, $1.5M2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-02: 5 open-market sales, $3.1M2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $2.5M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $2.9M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Renjel Louis E. — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Sideris Harry K. — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Ghartey-Tagoe Kodwo — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ghartey-Tagoe Kodwo — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Repko Regis T. — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Repko Regis T. — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Savoy Brian D — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Savoy Brian D — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Repko Regis T. — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Renjel Louis E. — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Glenn Robert Alexander — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Renjel Louis E. — Sale on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Titone Bonnie B. — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Weintraub Alexander J. — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gillespie Thomas Preston Jr. — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-11Renjel Louis E.officerSale3,500 @ $125.15$438K−14.0% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open21,415Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08Sideris Harry K.directorSale20,000 @ $124.37$2.5M−17.2% of holding+0.7%not yet — horizon still open96,102Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-02Ghartey-Tagoe KodwoofficerSale17,066 @ $131.54$2.2M−26.1% of holding+4.5%−20.5%48,197Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Ghartey-Tagoe KodwoofficerSale1,180 @ $132.06$156K−2.4% of holding+4.5%−20.5%47,017Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Repko Regis T.officerSale663 @ $131.00$87K−9.3% of holding+4.5%−20.5%6,501Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Repko Regis T.officerSale962 @ $127.86$123K−19.8% of holding+4.0%−16.5%3,896Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Savoy Brian DdirectorSale8,728 @ $127.49$1.1M−13.0% of holding+3.7%−16.2%58,384Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Savoy Brian DdirectorSale3,272 @ $128.23$420K−5.6% of holding+3.7%−16.2%55,112Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20Repko Regis T.officerSale4,376 @ $127.18$557K−45.5% of holding+5.1%−16.3%5,242Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-12Renjel Louis E.officerSale6,800 @ $127.67$868K−23.6% of holding+8.5%−14.6%22,007Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19Glenn Robert AlexanderofficerSale8,200 @ $123.80$1.0M−41.9% of holding−8.5%−8.6%11,367Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18Renjel Louis E.officerSale800 @ $125.65$101K−3.8% of holding−7.5%−10.7%20,332Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20Titone Bonnie B.officerSale2,000 @ $124.38$249K−9.3% of holding−7.0%−5.1%19,608Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-19Weintraub Alexander J.officerSale400 @ $121.64$49K−4.8% of holding−6.2%−3.7%7,860Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12Gillespie Thomas Preston Jr.officerSale6,700 @ $124.26$833K−12.6% of holding−3.4%−5.9%46,422Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07MCKEE E MARIEdirectorSale1,610 @ $124.88$201K−99.9% of holding−6.4%−11.4%1Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Renjel Louis E.officerSale1,580 @ $125.56$198K−7.0% of holding−6.4%−11.4%21,132Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28Ghartey-Tagoe KodwoofficerSale9,007 @ $117.10$1.1M−16.5% of holding+9.4%−3.1%45,709Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-26JANSON JULIA SofficerSale10,000 @ $116.09$1.2M−12.5% of holding+5.5%−1.2%69,768Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Renjel Louis E.officerSale3,404 @ $111.50$380K−14.4% of holding+14.9%+8.4%20,161Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Renjel Louis E.officerSale1,070 @ $111.47$119K−4.3% of holding+14.9%+8.4%23,961Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Renjel Louis E.officerSale396 @ $111.49$44K−1.7% of holding+14.9%+8.4%23,565Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

205 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-02Kesner Idalene FaydirectorAward / grant26615,191Form 4
2026-05-20Weintraub Alexander J.officerDiscretionary3943,011Form 4
2026-05-19Weintraub Alexander J.officerDiscretionary3,2653,265Form 4
2026-05-18CRAVER THEODORE F JRdirectorGift2,40219,193Form 4
2026-05-07CRAVER THEODORE F JRdirectorAward / grant2,40219,193Form 4
2026-05-07FANANDAKIS NICHOLAS CdirectorAward / grant1,6024,742Form 4
2026-05-07Davis Robert MdirectorAward / grant1,60214,262Form 4
2026-05-07Webster William E. Jr.directorAward / grant1,60219,708Form 4
2026-05-07SKAINS THOMAS EdirectorAward / grant1,6029,276Form 4
2026-05-07DORSA CAROLINEdirectorAward / grant1,60212,723Form 4
2026-05-07CLAYTON ANNETTE KdirectorAward / grant1,60220,271Form 4
2026-05-07Dunbar Webster RoydirectorAward / grant1,6027,347Form 4
2026-05-07Herron John TdirectorAward / grant1,60234,525Form 4
2026-05-07GULDNER JEFFREY B.directorAward / grant1,6021,022Form 4
2026-05-07Burks DerrickdirectorAward / grant1,6027,681Form 4
2026-05-07Pacilio Michael J.directorAward / grant1,6027,347Form 4
2026-05-07Kesner Idalene FaydirectorAward / grant1,60212,938Form 4
2026-04-06Kesner Idalene FaydirectorAward / grant25712,933Form 4
2026-04-01Sideris Harry K.directorWithheld for tax2,016116,102Form 4
2026-04-01Titone Bonnie B.officerWithheld for tax28529,011Form 4
2026-04-01Weintraub Alexander J.officerWithheld for tax13912,187Form 4
2026-04-01Batson Scott L.officerWithheld for tax3833,481Form 4
2026-02-26Sideris Harry K.directorWithheld for tax3,642118,118Form 4
2026-02-26Ghartey-Tagoe KodwoofficerWithheld for tax1,06665,316Form 4
2026-02-26Savoy Brian DdirectorWithheld for tax1,02761,764Form 4
2026-02-26Gillespie Thomas Preston Jr.officerWithheld for tax92560,150Form 4
2026-02-26Renjel Louis E.officerWithheld for tax91024,959Form 4
2026-02-26Glenn Robert AlexanderofficerWithheld for tax70122,949Form 4
2026-02-26Titone Bonnie B.officerWithheld for tax70129,296Form 4
2026-02-26Batson Scott L.officerWithheld for tax50033,764Form 4
2026-02-26Repko Regis T.officerWithheld for tax3687,164Form 4
2026-02-26Batson Scott L.officerWithheld for tax24533,519Form 4
2026-02-26Weintraub Alexander J.officerWithheld for tax18012,326Form 4
2026-02-26McDonald Olivia Cameron D.officerWithheld for tax1787,566Form 4
2026-02-26Lee Cynthia S.officerWithheld for tax9210,016Form 4
2026-02-26Ghartey-Tagoe KodwoofficerWithheld for tax5365,263Form 4
2026-02-26Renjel Louis E.officerWithheld for tax4424,915Form 4
2026-02-26Glenn Robert AlexanderofficerWithheld for tax3422,915Form 4
2026-02-26McDonald Olivia Cameron D.officerWithheld for tax287,538Form 4
2026-02-26Sideris Harry K.directorAward / grant30,540121,760Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2026-07-172026-07-10$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2026-07-162026-06-08$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132024-10-23$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-09-272025-09-11$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2025-05-152025-04-15$15–50K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-05-062025-05-05$1–15K
Virginia FoxxHousepurchase2025-01-062024-12-06$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor Mrs GreeneHousepurchase2024-12-272024-12-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.