Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.63 · now $6.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DTIL has typically landed between $4.54 and $8.97 — a range of −31.5% to +35.4% from the issuance price $6.63.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,857 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-03-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DTIL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.63 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.23 (-6.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.41–$7.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.54–$8.97
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-29 | −47.7% | −47.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-28 | −46.3% | −46.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-01-10 | −45.9% | −45.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-10-29 | +180.6% | +0.0% | +180.6% |
| 2019-10-30 | +171.7% | −0.8% | +178.0% |
| 2019-11-05 | +169.0% | +0.0% | +169.0% |
1,857 overlapping windows · 2019-03-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- November 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: PBGENE-DMD Phase 1/2a Safety and Preliminary Efficacy Study in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (FUNCTION-DMD) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | Amoroso Michael | director | Sale | 20,559 @ $3.84 | $79K | −7.8% of holding | +78.4% | +108.1% | 243,392 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Kelly John Alexander | officer | Sale | 8,149 @ $3.84 | $31K | −6.1% of holding | +78.4% | +108.1% | 125,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | SMITH J. JEFFERSON | officer | Sale | 4,925 @ $3.84 | $19K | −3.9% of holding | +78.4% | +108.1% | 121,926 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Scimeca Dario | officer | Sale | 4,925 @ $3.84 | $19K | −8.0% of holding | +78.4% | +108.1% | 56,457 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Amoroso Michael | director | Sale | 34,799 @ $4.17 | $145K | −15.1% of holding | −6.1% | +63.7% | 196,154 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-21 | Kelly John Alexander | officer | Sale | 15,213 @ $4.03 | $61K | −12.5% of holding | −6.1% | +74.5% | 106,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | SMITH J. JEFFERSON | officer | Sale | 10,200 @ $4.03 | $41K | −8.5% of holding | −6.1% | +74.5% | 110,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Scimeca Dario | officer | Sale | 8,854 @ $4.03 | $36K | −16.5% of holding | −6.1% | +74.5% | 44,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Germano Geno J | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $4.72 | $14K | +14.4% of holding | −18.2% | +30.4% | 23,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Frankel Stanley | director | Purchase | 2,700 @ $4.70 | $13K | +16.1% of holding | −18.2% | +30.4% | 19,478 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Brown Melinda | director | Purchase | 1,381 @ $4.97 | $7K | +6.3% of holding | −20.7% | +26.0% | 23,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Amoroso Michael | director | Sale | 3,409 @ $6.49 | $22K | −2.9% of holding | −31.3% | −5.8% | 115,575 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Kelly John Alexander | officer | Sale | 1,303 @ $6.49 | $8K | −1.7% of holding | −31.3% | −5.8% | 77,298 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Scimeca Dario | officer | Sale | 665 @ $6.49 | $4K | −2.3% of holding | −31.3% | −5.8% | 28,258 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Frankel Stanley | director | Purchase | 2,700 @ $4.97 | $13K | +19.2% of holding | +38.4% | +11.1% | 16,778 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Brown Melinda | director | Purchase | 1,400 @ $4.89 | $7K | +6.8% of holding | +43.2% | +33.2% | 21,965 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Kelly John Alexander | officer | Sale | 14,827 @ $4.26 | $63K | −16.8% of holding | +10.6% | −15.4% | 73,485 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | Buehler Kevin | director | Purchase | 5,076 @ $4.16 | $21K | +22.0% of holding | +16.5% | −12.1% | 28,137 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | Brown Melinda | director | Purchase | 1,682 @ $4.14 | $7K | +8.9% of holding | +16.5% | −12.1% | 20,565 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Buehler Kevin | director | Purchase | 4,523 @ $4.67 | $21K | +51.9% of holding | +20.8% | −7.6% | 13,235 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Brown Melinda | director | Purchase | 1,839 @ $4.75 | $9K | +25.5% of holding | +20.8% | −7.6% | 9,057 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | Germano Geno J | director | Purchase | 3,250 @ $5.30 | $17K | +41.6% of holding | +13.1% | −14.8% | 11,057 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Amoroso Michael | director | Sale | 964 @ $5.56 | $5K | −0.9% of holding | +7.4% | −29.7% | 109,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Scimeca Dario | officer | Sale | 272 @ $4.91 | $1K | −1.1% of holding | −6.0% | −13.0% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | SMITH J. JEFFERSON | officer | Sale | 154 @ $4.91 | $756 | −0.2% of holding | −6.0% | −13.0% | 87,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | SMITH J. JEFFERSON | officer | Sale | 10,287 @ $4.79 | $49K | −10.5% of holding | +20.4% | −4.6% | 87,440 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-22 | Scimeca Dario | officer | Sale | 8,928 @ $4.79 | $43K | −26.8% of holding | +20.4% | −4.6% | 24,353 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-21 | Amoroso Michael | director | Sale | 36,838 @ $4.67 | $172K | −25.6% of holding | +28.0% | +2.5% | 107,087 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | Germano Geno J | director | Purchase | 3,605 @ $4.49 | $16K | +85.8% of holding | +15.3% | −5.1% | 7,807 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-27 | Buehler Kevin | director | Purchase | 4,320 @ $4.88 | $21K | +98.4% of holding | +10.4% | −13.3% | 8,712 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-27 | Kelly John Alexander | officer | Purchase | 2,113 @ $4.75 | $10K | +5.5% of holding | +10.4% | −13.3% | 40,186 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-26 | Brown Melinda | director | Purchase | 3,016 @ $4.55 | $14K | +71.8% of holding | +3.9% | −15.8% | 7,218 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
126 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Buehler Kevin | director | Award / grant | 20,979 | 20,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Pire Shari Lisa | director | Award / grant | 20,979 | 20,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Germano Geno J | director | Award / grant | 20,979 | 20,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Frankel Stanley | director | Award / grant | 20,979 | 20,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Brown Melinda | director | Award / grant | 20,979 | 20,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SMITH J. JEFFERSON | officer | Award / grant | 57,389 | 57,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Scimeca Dario | officer | Award / grant | 107,604 | 107,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Amoroso Michael | director | Award / grant | 573,888 | 573,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kelly John Alexander | officer | Award / grant | 193,688 | 193,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Pire Shari Lisa | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Brown Melinda | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Germano Geno J | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Buehler Kevin | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Frankel Stanley | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Pire Shari Lisa | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 35,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Frankel Stanley | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 40,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Buehler Kevin | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 49,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Germano Geno J | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 44,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Pire Shari Lisa | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 35,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Brown Melinda | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 44,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Frankel Stanley | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 40,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Brown Melinda | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 44,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Buehler Kevin | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 49,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Germano Geno J | director | Option exercise | 21,000 | 44,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Scimeca Dario | officer | Option exercise | 16,667 | 61,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Scimeca Dario | officer | Option exercise | 16,667 | 33,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Kelly John Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 27,584 | 134,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Kelly John Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 27,584 | 55,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | SMITH J. JEFFERSON | officer | Option exercise | 16,667 | 126,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | SMITH J. JEFFERSON | officer | Option exercise | 16,667 | 33,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Amoroso Michael | director | Option exercise | 67,797 | 263,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Amoroso Michael | director | Option exercise | 67,797 | 135,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | SMITH J. JEFFERSON | officer | Option exercise | 16,219 | 120,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | SMITH J. JEFFERSON | officer | Option exercise | 16,219 | 120,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Kelly John Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 3,888 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Amoroso Michael | director | Option exercise | 8,888 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Amoroso Michael | director | Option exercise | 37,069 | 37,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Amoroso Michael | director | Option exercise | 69,421 | 69,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Kelly John Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 13,900 | 13,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Kelly John Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 26,575 | 26,575 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.