DRVN · TickerCove

DRVNDriven Brands Holdings Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Dealershipsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.07 · now $12.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DRVN has typically landed between $10.10 and $13.82 — a range of −16.3% to +14.5% from the issuance price $12.07.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,402 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-01-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$12.07 · 25% of range

$10.3 low$17.29 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.5%

typical move · IQR 12.2%

−16.3%worst (p90)+14.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where DRVN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $12.07 (+0.0%)
typical $12.13 (+0.5%)
middle 50% $11.4–$12.86
90% range $10.1–$13.82

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,402 windows spanning 2021-01-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-07-12	−47.4%	−47.4%	+0.7%
2023-07-11	−46.9%	−46.9%	+1.7%
2023-07-19	−46.1%	−46.1%	+0.2%
3 best
2026-03-13	+28.9%	+0.0%	+28.9%
2026-03-19	+27.5%	+0.0%	+27.5%
2023-11-01	+25.3%	+0.0%	+25.3%

1,402 overlapping windows · 2021-01-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

−2.0%

n=5

Feb

67%

−2.8%

n=6

Mar

50%

+2.3%

n=6

Apr

67%

+2.4%

n=6

May

67%

−3.6%

n=6

Jun

67%

+3.1%

n=6

Jul

67%

+2.2%

n=6

Aug

50%

−7.0%

n=6

Sep

−7.7%

n=6

Oct

60%

+2.0%

n=5

Nov

60%

+4.2%

n=5

Dec

60%

+0.9%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-01-21	O'Melia Scott L.	officer	Sale	46,875 @ $16.00	$750K	−12.5% of holding	+6.7%	−22.3%	326,944	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-15	Fitzpatrick Jonathan G.	director	Sale	110,000 @ $18.05	$2.0M	−4.6% of holding	−9.2%	−42.2%	2,279,453	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-12	Fitzpatrick Jonathan G.	director	Sale	75,000 @ $18.27	$1.4M	−3.0% of holding	−18.4%	−45.3%	2,389,453	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-03	Halligan Catherine Ann	director	Sale	4,242 @ $17.42	$74K	−19.3% of holding	+0.9%	+0.8%	17,791	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-21	O'Melia Scott L.	officer	Withheld for tax	28,892	346,523	Form 4
2026-08-07	Diamond Michael Fisher	officer	Withheld for tax	17,285	214,676	Form 4
2026-06-29	SWINBURN PETER S	director	Award / grant	12,595	249,961	Form 4
2026-06-29	PUCKETT RICK D	director	Award / grant	12,595	182,077	Form 4
2026-06-29	JOHNSON TIMOTHY A	director	Award / grant	12,595	12,595	Form 4
2026-06-29	Halligan Catherine Ann	director	Award / grant	12,595	39,195	Form 4
2026-06-29	Tomas Jose D.	director	Award / grant	12,595	40,073	Form 4
2026-06-29	Fitzpatrick Jonathan G.	director	Award / grant	16,794	2,280,730	Form 4
2026-06-29	O'Melia Scott L.	officer	Award / grant	57,252	375,415	Form 4
2026-06-29	Rivera Daniel R.	director	Award / grant	122,137	727,242	Form 4
2026-06-29	Harmon Damien	director	Award / grant	12,595	32,018	Form 4
2026-06-29	Khalid Muhammad	officer	Award / grant	54,866	199,220	Form 4
2026-06-29	Fondell Rebecca	officer	Award / grant	12,213	38,417	Form 4
2026-06-29	Stroup Karen B.	director	Award / grant	12,595	44,937	Form 4
2026-06-29	Diamond Michael Fisher	officer	Award / grant	66,794	231,961	Form 4
2026-06-17	Khalid Muhammad	officer	Withheld for tax	14,640	144,354	Form 4
2026-05-09	Rivera Daniel R.	director	Withheld for tax	7,731	605,105	Form 4
2026-05-09	Fondell Rebecca	officer	Withheld for tax	2,863	26,204	Form 4
2026-03-13	Diamond Michael Fisher	officer	Withheld for tax	4,048	163,165	Form 4
2026-03-13	O'Melia Scott L.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,326	318,163	Form 4
2026-03-13	Khalid Muhammad	officer	Withheld for tax	2,844	158,994	Form 4
2026-02-28	Fitzpatrick Jonathan G.	director	Withheld for tax	4,738	2,263,936	Form 4
2026-02-28	Rivera Daniel R.	director	Withheld for tax	1,810	612,836	Form 4
2026-02-28	O'Melia Scott L.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,383	321,489	Form 4
2026-02-28	Khalid Muhammad	officer	Withheld for tax	1,187	161,838	Form 4
2026-02-27	Fitzpatrick Jonathan G.	director	Withheld for tax	10,779	2,268,674	Form 4
2026-02-27	O'Melia Scott L.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,072	322,872	Form 4
2026-02-27	Rivera Daniel R.	director	Withheld for tax	4,045	614,646	Form 4
2026-02-27	Khalid Muhammad	officer	Withheld for tax	3,432	163,025	Form 4
2025-11-07	Khalid Muhammad	officer	Withheld for tax	10,655	166,457	Form 4
2025-08-22	O'Melia Scott L.	officer	Withheld for tax	30,589	343,230	Form 4
2025-08-07	Diamond Michael Fisher	officer	Withheld for tax	11,419	155,794	Form 4
2025-05-09	Fondell Rebecca	officer	Award / grant	29,067	29,067	Form 4
2025-05-09	Fitzpatrick Jonathan G.	director	Award / grant	11,627	2,464,453	Form 4
2025-05-09	Rivera Daniel R.	director	Award / grant	71,692	618,691	Form 4
2025-03-22	Fitzpatrick Jonathan G.	director	Withheld for tax	6,042	2,452,826	Form 4
2025-03-22	O'Melia Scott L.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,157	373,819	Form 4
2025-03-22	Rivera Daniel R.	director	Withheld for tax	898	546,999	Form 4
2025-03-13	Stroup Karen B.	director	Award / grant	8,809	32,342	Form 4
2025-03-13	PUCKETT RICK D	director	Award / grant	8,809	169,482	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i