DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $208.08 · now $208.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DRI has typically landed between $189.04 and $229.97 — a range of −9.2% to +10.5% from the issuance price $208.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($208.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DRI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $208.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$189.04worst · -9.2%$229.97best · +10.5%
  • now $208.08 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $210.23 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $201.11–$219.34
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $189.04–$229.97
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−71.7%−71.7%+0.5%
2020-02-20−67.7%−71.7%+0.3%
2020-02-21−66.1%−71.8%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+109.6%+0.0%+110.8%
2008-11-21+94.0%+0.0%+99.6%
2008-11-19+91.0%−9.4%+91.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$22.5B
market cap
$10.39
EPS (TTM)
18.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-17
next earnings
Revenue$13.2B
'21'26
Net income$1.2B
'21'26
Free cash flow$1.1B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr9.1%
'21'26
ROE · by yr54.7%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr2.74
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $208.08$191.77$398.14
  • DCF (intrinsic)$383.91
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$247.50
  • Analyst target · range $206.00–$245.00$229.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$208.08

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+1.9%
n=18
Feb
79%
+3.3%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.8%
n=19
Apr
47%
+2.2%
n=19
May
58%
+1.0%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Jul
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.2%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.5%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.7%
n=18
Dec
61%
+4.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$228$1652026-08-05: 2 insider sales, $1.8M — Wilkerson John W. …2026-07-31: 2 insider sales, $318K — Williamson Laura B …2026-07-29: 4 insider sales, $3.2M — Vennam Rajesh, King Sarah H., Connelly Susan M. …2026-07-28: 4 insider sales, $8.2M — Cardenas Ricardo …2026-07-07: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — Connelly Susan M.2026-04-17: 1 insider sale, $732K — Milanes Douglas J.2026-04-07: 1 insider sale, $58K — Koren Lindsay L.2026-04-06: 1 insider sale, $998K — Martin Melvin John2026-03-23: 1 insider sale, $468K — Simon William S2026-01-23: 1 insider sale, $641K — SONSTEBY CHARLES M2026-01-22: 2 insider sales, $952K — King Sarah H. …2026-01-16: 1 insider sale, $481K — Wilkerson John W.2026-01-15: 2 insider sales, $1.5M — Vennam Rajesh …2026-01-14: 1 insider sale, $546K — Connelly Susan M.2026-01-13: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Burrowes Todd2026-01-06: 1 insider sale, $237K — Martin Melvin John2025-10-14: 1 insider sale, $314K — Martin Melvin John2025-10-06: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Broad Matthew R2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-01: 9 open-market sales, $5.8M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $468K2026-04: 3 open-market sales, $1.8M2026-07: 11 open-market sales, $13.7M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.8M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Wilkerson John W. — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wilkerson John W. — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Williamson Laura B — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Williamson Laura B — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Vennam Rajesh — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer King Sarah H. — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Connelly Susan M. — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer King Sarah H. — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Cardenas Ricardo — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Cardenas Ricardo — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Cardenas Ricardo — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Cardenas Ricardo — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Connelly Susan M. — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Milanes Douglas J. — Sale on 2026-04-17, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Koren Lindsay L. — Sale on 2026-04-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Martin Melvin John — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Simon William S — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SONSTEBY CHARLES M — Sale on 2026-01-23, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer King Sarah H. — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer King Sarah H. — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Wilkerson John W. — Sale on 2026-01-16, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Vennam Rajesh — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Vennam Rajesh — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Connelly Susan M. — Sale on 2026-01-14, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Burrowes Todd — Sale on 2026-01-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Martin Melvin John — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Martin Melvin John — Sale on 2025-10-14, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Broad Matthew R — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-05Wilkerson John W.officerSale6,364 @ $208.30$1.3M−25.3% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open18,794Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05Wilkerson John W.officerSale2,500 @ $208.41$521K−9.0% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open25,158Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-31Williamson Laura BofficerSale1,110 @ $204.32$227K−9.4% of holding+2.6%not yet — horizon still open10,754Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-31Williamson Laura BofficerSale443 @ $204.89$91K−7.4% of holding+2.6%not yet — horizon still open5,536Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-29Vennam RajeshdirectorSale8,478 @ $210.00$1.8M−49.7% of holding−6.2%not yet — horizon still open8,569Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29King Sarah H.officerSale2,873 @ $210.83$606K−79.5% of holding−6.2%not yet — horizon still open743Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29Connelly Susan M.officerSale2,226 @ $208.17$463K−34.8% of holding−6.2%not yet — horizon still open4,165Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29King Sarah H.officerSale1,500 @ $209.63$314K−29.3% of holding−6.2%not yet — horizon still open3,616Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28Cardenas RicardodirectorSale15,290 @ $209.00$3.2M−15.1% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open86,146Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Cardenas RicardodirectorSale12,802 @ $208.79$2.7M−11.2% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open101,436Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Cardenas RicardodirectorSale7,241 @ $209.41$1.5M−6.0% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open114,238Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Cardenas RicardodirectorSale3,801 @ $209.58$797K−3.0% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open121,479Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-07Connelly Susan M.officerSale9,930 @ $206.21$2.0M−70.4% of holding−0.0%not yet — horizon still open4,165Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-17Milanes Douglas J.officerSale3,620 @ $202.16$732K−93.0% of holding−7.7%not yet — horizon still open274Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-07Koren Lindsay L.directorSale300 @ $194.32$58K−15.6% of holding−7.9%not yet — horizon still open1,617Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-06Martin Melvin JohnofficerSale5,091 @ $196.04$998K−22.8% of holding−10.1%not yet — horizon still open17,270Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23Simon William SdirectorSale2,333 @ $200.64$468K−27.1% of holding−5.8%not yet — horizon still open6,281Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-23SONSTEBY CHARLES MdirectorSale3,123 @ $205.32$641K−13.9% of holding+4.0%−7.2%19,351Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-22King Sarah H.officerSale4,405 @ $206.62$910K−86.8% of holding+5.4%−10.6%671Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-22King Sarah H.officerSale200 @ $207.28$41K−3.8% of holding+5.4%−10.6%5,076Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-16Wilkerson John W.officerSale2,258 @ $213.00$481K−11.3% of holding+1.6%−17.2%17,784Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-01-15Vennam RajeshdirectorSale3,592 @ $214.12$769K−28.4% of holding+3.4%−15.4%9,040Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-01-15Vennam RajeshdirectorSale3,182 @ $214.12$681K−20.1% of holding+3.4%−15.4%12,632Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-01-14Connelly Susan M.officerSale2,635 @ $207.36$546K−39.1% of holding+3.0%−11.2%4,098Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-13Burrowes ToddofficerSale7,103 @ $207.12$1.5M−13.8% of holding+4.9%−9.8%44,252Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-06Martin Melvin JohnofficerSale1,200 @ $197.47$237K−6.5% of holding+9.5%−6.9%17,229Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-14Martin Melvin JohnofficerSale1,700 @ $184.58$314K−8.5% of holding−9.3%+0.2%18,386Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-06Broad Matthew RofficerSale5,661 @ $193.40$1.1M−28.9% of holding−6.5%+1.6%13,916Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-30Williamson Laura BofficerSale1,157 @ $204.70$237K−9.8% of holding−0.5%−10.4%10,632Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-30Williamson Laura BofficerSale523 @ $204.65$107K−8.8% of holding−0.5%−10.4%5,423Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-29Kiernan Daniel J.officerSale85 @ $203.91$17K−26.0% of holding−0.1%−11.7%242Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

269 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-30Kenningham DaryldirectorAward / grant150150Form 4
2026-08-30WILMOTT TIMOTHY JdirectorAward / grant1536,337Form 4
2026-08-30Kenningham DaryldirectorOption exercise1500Form 4
2026-08-30Kenningham DaryldirectorOption exercise1501,924Form 4
2026-08-05Wilkerson John W.officerOption exercise6,36427,658Form 4
2026-08-05Wilkerson John W.officerOption exercise6,3640Form 4
2026-07-29Williamson Laura BofficerAward / grant368368Form 4
2026-07-29Burrowes ToddofficerAward / grant1,9971,997Form 4
2026-07-29Burrowes ToddofficerAward / grant5,8905,890Form 4
2026-07-29Cardenas RicardodirectorAward / grant12,79212,792Form 4
2026-07-29Cardenas RicardodirectorAward / grant37,73537,735Form 4
2026-07-29Connelly Susan M.officerAward / grant749749Form 4
2026-07-29Connelly Susan M.officerAward / grant2,2092,209Form 4
2026-07-29King Sarah H.officerAward / grant1,8101,810Form 4
2026-07-29King Sarah H.officerAward / grant5,3385,338Form 4
2026-07-29Milanes Douglas J.officerAward / grant2,7612,761Form 4
2026-07-29Madonna John W.officerAward / grant624624Form 4
2026-07-29Madonna John W.officerAward / grant1,8411,841Form 4
2026-07-29Vennam RajeshdirectorAward / grant3,7443,744Form 4
2026-07-29Vennam RajeshdirectorAward / grant11,04411,044Form 4
2026-07-29Martin Melvin JohnofficerAward / grant1,9971,997Form 4
2026-07-29Martin Melvin JohnofficerAward / grant5,8905,890Form 4
2026-07-29Wilkerson John W.officerAward / grant1,6221,622Form 4
2026-07-29Wilkerson John W.officerAward / grant4,7864,786Form 4
2026-07-29Koren Lindsay L.directorAward / grant1,3731,373Form 4
2026-07-29Koren Lindsay L.directorAward / grant4,0504,050Form 4
2026-07-29Williamson Laura BofficerAward / grant1,1541,154Form 4
2026-07-29Williamson Laura BofficerAward / grant3,4053,405Form 4
2026-07-29Williamson Laura BofficerAward / grant125125Form 4
2026-07-29Milanes Douglas J.officerAward / grant936936Form 4
2026-07-28Cardenas RicardodirectorOption exercise19,091125,280Form 4
2026-07-28Cardenas RicardodirectorOption exercise19,0910Form 4
2026-07-27Cardenas RicardodirectorWithheld for tax8,432106,189Form 4
2026-07-27Vennam RajeshdirectorWithheld for tax2,86817,047Form 4
2026-07-27Burrowes ToddofficerWithheld for tax2,36150,741Form 4
2026-07-27Martin Melvin JohnofficerWithheld for tax2,36123,728Form 4
2026-07-27King Sarah H.officerWithheld for tax1,3375,116Form 4
2026-07-27Wilkerson John W.officerWithheld for tax1,10521,291Form 4
2026-07-27Connelly Susan M.officerWithheld for tax8446,391Form 4
2026-07-27Milanes Douglas J.officerWithheld for tax7683,834Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2026-05-192026-04-09$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Rick LarsenHousepurchase2026-01-142026-01-07$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-10-222025-09-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.