DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $301.30 · now $301.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DPZ has typically landed between $262.03 and $338.48 — a range of −13.0% to +12.3% from the issuance price $301.30.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($301.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DPZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $301.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$262.03worst · -13.0%$338.48best · +12.3%
  • now $301.3 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $300.44 (-0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $283.66–$317.22
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $262.03–$338.48
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−59.6%−59.6%+0.0%
2008-09-30−59.6%−59.6%+0.0%
2008-09-25−57.2%−57.2%+0.4%
3 best
2008-12-24+65.3%+0.0%+65.3%
2008-12-04+64.4%+0.0%+64.4%
2008-12-23+63.9%+0.0%+63.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$11.0B
market cap
$17.63
EPS (TTM)
18.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-13
next earnings
Revenue$4.9B
'20'25
Net income$602M
'20'25
Free cash flow$672M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-15.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-1.34
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $301.30$282.20$559.10
  • DCF (intrinsic)$359.87
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$419.97
  • Analyst target · range $315.00–$540.00$395.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$301.30

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
72%
+6.4%
n=18
Feb
68%
+3.6%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.7%
n=19
Apr
63%
+4.4%
n=19
May
53%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.3%
n=19
Jul
74%
+4.2%
n=19
Aug
42%
+0.1%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.3%
n=19
Oct
44%
−2.0%
n=18
Nov
83%
+3.5%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$458$2832026-07-22: 7 insider sales, $4.0M — GARCIA KELLY E …2026-07-17: 1 insider sale, $3.6M — WEINER RUSSELL J2026-07-16: 2 insider sales, $1.7M — JORDAN JOSEPH HUGH …2026-07-09: 1 insider sale, $145K — GARCIA KELLY E2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $152K — GARCIA KELLY E2026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $153K — GARCIA KELLY E2026-04-30: 1 insider sale, $162K — GARCIA KELLY E2026-03-13: 3 insider sales, $433K — HEADEN CYNTHIA A, Sandeep Reddy, PARRISH JESSICA L2026-03-12: 2 insider sales, $118K — Sandeep Reddy, PARRISH JESSICA L2026-03-11: 5 insider sales, $2.1M — Sandeep Reddy, HEADEN CYNTHIA A, PARRISH JESSICA L …2025-12-16: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — GARCIA KELLY E2025-08-18: 2 insider sales, $451K — GOLDMAN JAMES A …2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $451K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $2.1M2026-03: 10 open-market sales, $2.7M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $162K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $153K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $152K2026-07: 11 open-market sales, $9.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector GARCIA KELLY E — Sale on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GARCIA KELLY E — Sale on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GARCIA KELLY E — Sale on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GARCIA KELLY E — Sale on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GARCIA KELLY E — Sale on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GARCIA KELLY E — Sale on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GARCIA KELLY E — Sale on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WEINER RUSSELL J — Sale on 2026-07-17, filed 4 days after the tradedirector JORDAN JOSEPH HUGH — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed 4 days after the tradedirector JORDAN JOSEPH HUGH — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed 4 days after the tradedirector GARCIA KELLY E — Sale on 2026-07-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GARCIA KELLY E — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GARCIA KELLY E — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 5 days after the tradedirector GARCIA KELLY E — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer HEADEN CYNTHIA A — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Sandeep Reddy — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradeother PARRISH JESSICA L — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Sandeep Reddy — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradeother PARRISH JESSICA L — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Sandeep Reddy — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer HEADEN CYNTHIA A — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Sandeep Reddy — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 2 days after the tradeother PARRISH JESSICA L — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 2 days after the tradeother PARRISH JESSICA L — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector GARCIA KELLY E — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GOLDMAN JAMES A — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector GOLDMAN JAMES A — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale3,606 @ $320.80$1.2M−20.5% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open13,966Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale3,453 @ $322.01$1.1M−24.7% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open10,513Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale1,540 @ $322.88$497K−14.1% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open9,352Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale1,370 @ $322.87$442K−12.8% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open9,352Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale1,161 @ $322.84$375K−11.0% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open9,352Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale1,010 @ $322.92$326K−9.7% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open9,352Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale290 @ $323.18$94K−3.0% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open9,352Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-17WEINER RUSSELL JdirectorSale10,850 @ $330.83$3.6M−19.8% of holding+0.2%not yet — horizon still open43,829Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-16JORDAN JOSEPH HUGHdirectorSale3,100 @ $311.29$965K−22.1% of holding+1.6%not yet — horizon still open10,905Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-16JORDAN JOSEPH HUGHdirectorSale2,350 @ $311.29$732K−17.7% of holding+1.6%not yet — horizon still open10,905Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-09GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale487 @ $297.01$145K−4.9% of holding+13.8%not yet — horizon still open9,352Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale487 @ $311.74$152K−4.9% of holding−2.3%not yet — horizon still open9,352Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-21GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale488 @ $313.16$153K−5.0% of holding−9.0%not yet — horizon still open9,352Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-04-30GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale488 @ $332.31$162K−5.0% of holding−13.1%not yet — horizon still open9,352Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-13HEADEN CYNTHIA AofficerSale738 @ $396.50$293K−10.6% of holding−13.2%−34.9%6,208Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-13Sandeep ReddydirectorSale307 @ $396.50$122K−3.3% of holding−13.2%−34.9%8,889Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-13PARRISH JESSICA LotherSale47 @ $396.50$19K−1.4% of holding−13.2%−34.9%3,228Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-12Sandeep ReddydirectorSale253 @ $391.69$99K−2.7% of holding−9.7%−36.3%9,196Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12PARRISH JESSICA LotherSale47 @ $391.69$18K−1.4% of holding−9.7%−36.3%3,275Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-11Sandeep ReddydirectorSale2,351 @ $399.60$939K−19.5% of holding−7.2%−31.6%9,687Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-11HEADEN CYNTHIA AofficerSale1,745 @ $399.60$697K−19.8% of holding−7.2%−31.6%7,051Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-11Sandeep ReddydirectorSale608 @ $399.60$243K−4.8% of holding−7.2%−31.6%12,038Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-11PARRISH JESSICA LotherSale461 @ $399.60$184K−12.1% of holding−7.2%−31.6%3,342Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-11PARRISH JESSICA LotherSale110 @ $399.60$44K−2.8% of holding−7.2%−31.6%3,803Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-16GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale4,870 @ $434.06$2.1M−41.9% of holding−9.9%−38.1%6,744Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-18GOLDMAN JAMES AdirectorSale700 @ $451.28$316K−16.0% of holding−3.6%−20.5%3,684Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18GOLDMAN JAMES AdirectorSale300 @ $452.00$136K−8.1% of holding−3.6%−20.5%3,384Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-01BALLARD CHARLES ANDREWdirectorSale413 @ $483.42$200K−14.2% of holding−9.3%−37.9%2,495Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-30GOLDMAN JAMES AdirectorSale385 @ $484.79$187K−49.5% of holding−9.7%−41.3%392Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-02Sandeep ReddydirectorSale399 @ $462.18$184K−4.4% of holding+3.1%−26.4%8,756Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17HEADEN CYNTHIA AofficerSale244 @ $450.00$110K−5.0% of holding+9.1%−17.9%4,620Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13MORRIS KEVIN SCOTTofficerSale4,330 @ $437.00$1.9M−84.5% of holding+11.1%−13.6%793Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13MORRIS KEVIN SCOTTofficerSale1,086 @ $437.00$475K−57.8% of holding+11.1%−13.6%793Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12HEADEN CYNTHIA AofficerSale887 @ $433.56$385K−27.0% of holding+9.5%−13.5%2,394Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Sandeep ReddydirectorSale253 @ $433.56$110K−3.1% of holding+9.5%−13.5%7,828Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale1,576 @ $435.96$687K−20.2% of holding+7.4%−12.5%6,227Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11Sandeep ReddydirectorSale625 @ $443.20$277K−7.2% of holding+7.4%−12.5%8,081Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11GARCIA KELLY EdirectorSale528 @ $437.23$231K−8.5% of holding+7.4%−12.5%5,699Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11Sandeep ReddydirectorSale452 @ $443.20$200K−4.9% of holding+7.4%−12.5%8,706Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03BALSON ANDREWdirectorSale2,375 @ $492.60$1.2M−20.7% of holding+0.2%−13.0%9,076Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03BALSON ANDREWdirectorSale1,850 @ $493.81$914K−20.4% of holding+0.2%−13.0%7,226Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03BALSON ANDREWdirectorSale1,000 @ $491.29$491K−8.0% of holding+0.2%−13.0%11,451Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03BALSON ANDREWdirectorSale375 @ $489.33$183K−2.9% of holding+0.2%−13.0%12,751Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03BALSON ANDREWdirectorSale300 @ $490.24$147K−2.4% of holding+0.2%−13.0%12,451Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03BALSON ANDREWdirectorSale100 @ $494.18$49K−1.4% of holding+0.2%−13.0%7,126Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26GOLDMAN JAMES AdirectorSale682 @ $473.79$323K−12.6% of holding+3.1%−14.2%4,725Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26GOLDMAN JAMES AdirectorSale341 @ $475.89$162K−7.2% of holding+3.1%−14.2%4,384Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26GOLDMAN JAMES AdirectorSale341 @ $471.13$161K−5.9% of holding+3.1%−14.2%5,407Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

203 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise8,22017,572Form 4
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise1,37010,722Form 4
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise1,54010,892Form 4
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise1,01010,362Form 4
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise2909,642Form 4
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise2900Form 4
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise1,0100Form 4
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise1,3700Form 4
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise1,5400Form 4
2026-07-22GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise8,2200Form 4
2026-07-17WEINER RUSSELL JdirectorOption exercise10,85054,679Form 4
2026-07-17WEINER RUSSELL JdirectorOption exercise10,8500Form 4
2026-07-16JORDAN JOSEPH HUGHdirectorOption exercise3,10014,005Form 4
2026-07-16JORDAN JOSEPH HUGHdirectorOption exercise2,35013,255Form 4
2026-07-16JORDAN JOSEPH HUGHdirectorOption exercise3,1000Form 4
2026-07-16JORDAN JOSEPH HUGHdirectorOption exercise2,3500Form 4
2026-07-15Olson AnneliesedirectorAward / grant472472Form 4
2026-07-15Creedon Michael C JrdirectorAward / grant472472Form 4
2026-07-09GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise4879,839Form 4
2026-07-09GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise4870Form 4
2026-07-08PITTENGER MAUREENofficerWithheld for tax2293,289Form 4
2026-06-30TRUMBULL KATHERINE EofficerWithheld for tax1496,164Form 4
2026-06-30PANGBURN BRIAN JAMESotherWithheld for tax691,090Form 4
2026-06-30PANGBURN BRIAN JAMESotherAward / grant2771,367Form 4
2026-06-30BALSON ANDREWdirectorAward / grant1022,887Form 4
2026-06-11GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise4879,839Form 4
2026-06-11GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise487487Form 4
2026-05-21GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise4889,840Form 4
2026-05-21GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise488974Form 4
2026-04-30GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise4889,840Form 4
2026-04-30GARCIA KELLY EdirectorOption exercise4881,462Form 4
2026-04-21FEDERICO RICHARD LdirectorAward / grant5157,576Form 4
2026-04-21BRANDON DAVIDdirectorAward / grant51514,483Form 4
2026-04-21Cafritz Diane LdirectorAward / grant515907Form 4
2026-04-21LOPEZ PATRICIA EdirectorAward / grant5153,342Form 4
2026-04-21Kramer Stephen HowarddirectorAward / grant515859Form 4
2026-04-21BALSON ANDREWdirectorAward / grant5152,785Form 4
2026-04-21Barry Corie SdirectorAward / grant5153,586Form 4
2026-03-12WEINER RUSSELL JdirectorWithheld for tax48143,829Form 4
2026-03-12JORDAN JOSEPH HUGHdirectorWithheld for tax25210,905Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-05-082026-04-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-09-122025-08-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.