DOWDow Inc.Basic Materials · Chemicalsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $30.08 · now $30.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DOW has typically landed between $25.71 and $34.14 — a range of −14.5% to +13.5% from the issuance price $30.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,863 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-03-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($30.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DOW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $30.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$25.71worst · -14.5%$34.14best · +13.5%
  • now $30.08 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $30.06 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.47–$31.65
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $25.71–$34.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,863 windows spanning 2019-03-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−53.7%−53.7%+0.9%
2020-02-11−50.7%−50.7%+1.2%
2020-02-12−47.1%−51.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-12+48.9%−7.1%+54.5%
2020-03-16+46.5%+0.0%+66.2%
2020-05-07+42.2%−1.5%+42.2%

1,863 overlapping windows · 2019-03-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$21.6B
market cap
$-1.82
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$40.0B
'20'25
Net income−$2.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$1.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-6.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-16.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.22
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $30.08$24.56$74.51
  • DCF (intrinsic)$71.06
  • Analyst target · range $28.00–$45.00$35.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$30.08

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
43%
+2.0%
n=7
Feb
43%
+2.9%
n=7
Mar
57%
+2.1%
n=7
Apr
38%
+2.5%
n=8
May
50%
−3.1%
n=8
Jun
38%
−5.3%
n=8
Jul
63%
+1.0%
n=8
Aug
50%
+0.8%
n=8
Sep
38%
−2.3%
n=8
Oct
43%
−0.8%
n=7
Nov
71%
+5.1%
n=7
Dec
57%
+0.6%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$41$20↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-02-07Dial Debra L.directorPurchase675 @ $38.81$26K+33.3% of holding+4.3%−50.0%2,700Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-13Banister Gaurdie E. JR.directorPurchase7,339 @ $40.87$300K+204.7% of holding+1.8%−26.7%10,924Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12Fitterling James RdirectorPurchase14,200 @ $41.52$590K+6.1% of holding−0.6%−25.1%247,541Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12Fitterling James RdirectorPurchase11,400 @ $41.45$473K+10.7% of holding−0.6%−25.1%117,837Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12DAVIS RICHARD KdirectorPurchase6,025 @ $41.45$250K+16.3% of holding−0.6%−25.1%43,026Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Carter Karen SdirectorAward / grant126,640126,640Form 4
2026-07-01Carter Karen SdirectorAward / grant24,150174,481Form 4
2026-04-09DEVARD JERRIdirectorAward / grant5,12721,850Form 4
2026-04-09Moreno Mejia Luis AlbertodirectorAward / grant5,12724,716Form 4
2026-04-09Hinman Jacqueline C.directorAward / grant5,12733,157Form 4
2026-04-09ALLEN SAMUEL RdirectorAward / grant5,12732,522Form 4
2026-04-09BUSH WESLEY GdirectorAward / grant5,12733,800Form 4
2026-04-09Banister Gaurdie E. JR.directorAward / grant5,12727,492Form 4
2026-04-09Wyant Jill SdirectorAward / grant5,12729,777Form 4
2026-04-09Yohannes DanieldirectorAward / grant5,12734,880Form 4
2026-04-09FETTIG JEFF MdirectorAward / grant5,12733,157Form 4
2026-04-09DAVIS RICHARD KdirectorAward / grant5,12755,299Form 4
2026-04-09Dial Debra L.directorAward / grant5,12724,716Form 4
2026-02-26Wilson Amy EdirectorDisposition3,718113,133Form 4
2026-02-26SAMPSON JOHN MAURICEofficerDisposition3,016134,544Form 4
2026-02-26Carter Karen SdirectorDisposition2,969150,331Form 4
2026-02-26Bryant LisaofficerDisposition1,76333,099Form 4
2026-02-26Argenton AndreofficerDisposition68850,919Form 4
2026-02-26Cleason KeithofficerDisposition68657,052Form 4
2026-02-26Lange Philo BrendyofficerDisposition62123,161Form 4
2026-02-26Dominowski Andrea LofficerDisposition28224,150Form 4
2026-02-26Argenton AndreofficerDisposition10311,879Form 4
2026-02-12Wilson Amy EdirectorAward / grant13,000102,731Form 4
2026-02-12Wilson Amy EdirectorAward / grant14,120116,851Form 4
2026-02-12Wilson Amy EdirectorAward / grant76,80076,800Form 4
2026-02-12Cleason KeithofficerAward / grant10,42057,738Form 4
2026-02-12ten Bruggencate MarcoofficerAward / grant1,45325,771Form 4
2026-02-12ten Bruggencate MarcoofficerAward / grant9,17034,941Form 4
2026-02-12ten Bruggencate MarcoofficerAward / grant49,88049,880Form 4
2026-02-12Fitterling James RdirectorAward / grant60,732182,619Form 4
2026-02-12Fitterling James RdirectorAward / grant68,230250,849Form 4
2026-02-12Fitterling James RdirectorAward / grant371,250371,250Form 4
2026-02-12Cleason KeithofficerAward / grant2,02347,318Form 4
2026-02-12Cleason KeithofficerAward / grant56,70056,700Form 4
2026-02-12Dominowski Andrea LofficerAward / grant83120,812Form 4
2026-02-12Bryant LisaofficerAward / grant6,16427,062Form 4
2026-02-12Bryant LisaofficerAward / grant7,80034,862Form 4
2026-02-12Bryant LisaofficerAward / grant42,45042,450Form 4
2026-02-12Dominowski Andrea LofficerAward / grant3,62024,432Form 4
2026-02-12Dominowski Andrea LofficerAward / grant19,68019,680Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-07-072025-06-09$100–250K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.