DOVDover CorporationIndustrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $188.36 · now $188.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DOV has typically landed between $169.51 and $208.55 — a range of −10.0% to +10.7% from the issuance price $188.36.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($188.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DOV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $188.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$169.51worst · -10.0%$208.55best · +10.7%
  • now $188.36 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $189.78 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $179.85–$199.71
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $169.51–$208.55
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−45.0%−45.0%+0.0%
2020-02-20−44.2%−44.2%+0.3%
2020-02-18−41.5%−41.5%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-11+34.3%+0.0%+34.3%
2009-03-05+32.2%−1.6%+32.2%
2020-03-23+32.0%+0.0%+37.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$27.2B
market cap
$8.28
EPS (TTM)
24.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$8.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr14.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.51
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $188.36$135.80$279.94
  • DCF (intrinsic)$145.74
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$253.81
  • Analyst target · range $224.00–$270.00$235.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$188.36

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.9%
n=18
Feb
68%
+1.9%
n=19
Mar
63%
+0.0%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.6%
n=19
May
68%
+0.3%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.3%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.4%
n=18
Nov
72%
+4.3%
n=18
Dec
72%
+1.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$232$1602026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $17.9M — Tobin Richard J2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $933K — Cabrera Ivonne M2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $346K — Juneja Girish2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $502K — Cabrera Ivonne M2025-11-28: 1 insider sale, $303K — Woenker Christopher B.2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $303K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $502K2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $19.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Tobin Richard J — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cabrera Ivonne M — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Juneja Girish — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cabrera Ivonne M — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Woenker Christopher B. — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-19Tobin Richard JdirectorSale76,997 @ $232.70$17.9M−26.1% of holding−4.8%−25.6%217,979Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Cabrera Ivonne MofficerSale4,000 @ $233.23$933K−5.3% of holding−5.7%−25.5%72,188Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Juneja GirishofficerSale1,500 @ $230.77$346K−15.1% of holding−8.0%−23.9%8,422Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04Cabrera Ivonne MofficerSale2,630 @ $190.80$502K−3.5% of holding+5.4%+5.3%72,968Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-28Woenker Christopher B.officerSale1,627 @ $186.04$303K−38.9% of holding+5.9%+3.1%2,553Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

121 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-01Yehle JeffreyofficerWithheld for tax1732,640Form 4
2026-03-13Tobin Richard JdirectorWithheld for tax1,835214,410Form 4
2026-03-13Tobin Richard JdirectorWithheld for tax1,734216,245Form 4
2026-03-13Tobin Richard JdirectorWithheld for tax1,555212,855Form 4
2026-03-13Cabrera Ivonne MofficerWithheld for tax27771,553Form 4
2026-03-13Cabrera Ivonne MofficerWithheld for tax18372,005Form 4
2026-03-13Cabrera Ivonne MofficerWithheld for tax17571,830Form 4
2026-03-13Juneja GirishofficerWithheld for tax9710,553Form 4
2026-03-13Woenker Christopher B.officerWithheld for tax974,005Form 4
2026-03-13Juneja GirishofficerWithheld for tax9210,461Form 4
2026-03-13Juneja GirishofficerWithheld for tax8310,378Form 4
2026-03-13Yehle JeffreyofficerWithheld for tax632,813Form 4
2026-03-13Woenker Christopher B.officerWithheld for tax434,102Form 4
2026-03-13Woenker Christopher B.officerWithheld for tax394,145Form 4
2026-03-13Paulson RyanofficerWithheld for tax373,481Form 4
2026-03-13Paulson RyanofficerWithheld for tax323,518Form 4
2026-03-13Paulson RyanofficerWithheld for tax303,451Form 4
2026-03-13Moran James MofficerWithheld for tax2710,537Form 4
2026-03-13Moran James MofficerWithheld for tax2610,511Form 4
2026-03-13Moran James MofficerWithheld for tax2010,491Form 4
2026-02-19Tobin Richard JdirectorDisposition72,422356,215Form 4
2026-02-19Tobin Richard JdirectorWithheld for tax61,239294,976Form 4
2026-02-19Tobin Richard JdirectorOption exercise210,6580Form 4
2026-02-19Tobin Richard JdirectorOption exercise210,658428,637Form 4
2026-02-13Tobin Richard JdirectorAward / grant25,788228,756Form 4
2026-02-13Tobin Richard JdirectorWithheld for tax10,777217,979Form 4
2026-02-13Cabrera Ivonne MofficerWithheld for tax1,22176,188Form 4
2026-02-13Juneja GirishofficerWithheld for tax62810,650Form 4
2026-02-13Woenker Christopher B.officerWithheld for tax2624,184Form 4
2026-02-13Paulson RyanofficerWithheld for tax2273,550Form 4
2026-02-13Moran James MofficerWithheld for tax17910,564Form 4
2026-02-13Yehle JeffreyofficerAward / grant5,7565,756Form 4
2026-02-13Cabrera Ivonne MofficerAward / grant1,72774,695Form 4
2026-02-13Cabrera Ivonne MofficerAward / grant2,71477,409Form 4
2026-02-13Cabrera Ivonne MofficerAward / grant15,35015,350Form 4
2026-02-13Paulson RyanofficerAward / grant2593,098Form 4
2026-02-13Paulson RyanofficerAward / grant6793,777Form 4
2026-02-13Paulson RyanofficerAward / grant2,3032,303Form 4
2026-02-13Woenker Christopher B.officerAward / grant1,0793,632Form 4
2026-02-13Woenker Christopher B.officerAward / grant8144,446Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132025-04-11$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-30$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-09-112025-08-14$1–15K
James ComerHousesale2025-08-112025-07-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-15$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.