Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.71 · now $1.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DOUG has typically landed between $1.27 and $2.22 — a range of −25.8% to +30.0% from the issuance price $1.71.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,161 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-12-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DOUG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.71 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.64 (-3.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.45–$1.84
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.27–$2.22
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-26 | −42.5% | −42.5% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-16 | −42.4% | −42.4% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-15 | −42.3% | −42.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-07-05 | +92.4% | +0.0% | +96.2% |
| 2024-07-08 | +90.3% | +0.0% | +90.3% |
| 2023-11-27 | +90.2% | +0.0% | +90.2% |
1,161 overlapping windows · 2021-12-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-12 | BARTELS PATRICK J JR | director | Purchase | 58,104 @ $1.92 | $111K | +42.8% of holding | +37.1% | +20.0% | 193,975 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-09 | BARTELS PATRICK J JR | director | Purchase | 61,696 @ $1.85 | $114K | +83.2% of holding | +38.2% | +14.5% | 135,871 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | BARTELS PATRICK J JR | director | Purchase | 15,200 @ $1.84 | $28K | +25.8% of holding | +36.8% | +14.4% | 74,175 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
41 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Feldman Justyn | director | Award / grant | 74,627 | 74,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Lee Sanghyun | director | Award / grant | 74,627 | 74,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Brodie Bradley Harris | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,593 | 400,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Brodie Bradley Harris | officer | Award / grant | 175,000 | 425,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | WHITE WILSON | director | Award / grant | 90,910 | 299,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Weitz Perry | director | Award / grant | 90,910 | 149,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | ZEITCHICK MARK | director | Award / grant | 90,910 | 388,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | LAMPEN RICHARD | director | Award / grant | 90,910 | 1,244,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | KIRKLAND J BRYANT III | officer | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 1,877,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Liebowitz Michael | director | Award / grant | 1,250,000 | 2,290,780 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | KIRKLAND J BRYANT III | officer | Withheld for tax | 75,256 | 877,274 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Larkin Stephen T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,118 | 91,249 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | SELIGMAN LISA M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,876 | 70,153 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Weitz Perry | director | Award / grant | 58,594 | 58,594 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Liebowitz Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 196,750 | 1,344,030 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Disposition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-13 | Brodie Bradley Harris | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-28 | Vogel Scott D. | director | Award / grant | 61,983 | 108,256 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-28 | WHITE WILSON | director | Award / grant | 61,983 | 208,380 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-28 | BARTELS PATRICK J JR | director | Award / grant | 61,983 | 255,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-28 | Kennedy Lewis GP III LLC | director | Award / grant | 61,983 | 120,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-28 | LAMPEN RICHARD | director | Award / grant | 61,983 | 1,153,537 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-15 | KIRKLAND J BRYANT III | officer | Withheld for tax | 76,369 | 952,530 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-15 | Larkin Stephen T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,118 | 112,367 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-15 | SELIGMAN LISA M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,876 | 83,029 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-15 | Sachar Daniel A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,198 | 102,607 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-13 | LAMPEN RICHARD | director | Disposition | 1,181,250 | 1,091,554 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.