DNUTKrispy Kreme, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.11 · now $3.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DNUT has typically landed between $2.46 and $3.79 — a range of −20.8% to +22.0% from the issuance price $3.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,287 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DNUT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.46worst · -20.8%$3.79best · +22.0%
  • now $3.11 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.07 (-1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.81–$3.34
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.46–$3.79
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,287 windows spanning 2021-07-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-02-24−40.6%−41.4%+0.0%
2025-02-20−40.6%−42.2%+0.0%
2025-02-11−39.7%−39.7%+4.4%
3 best
2025-06-25+72.0%+0.0%+72.0%
2025-06-24+65.8%−1.2%+66.2%
2025-06-23+64.9%−1.9%+64.9%

1,287 overlapping windows · 2021-07-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
20%
−8.7%
n=5
Feb
40%
−1.8%
n=5
Mar
40%
+1.3%
n=5
Apr
20%
−5.5%
n=5
May
20%
−9.8%
n=5
Jun
60%
−1.2%
n=5
Jul
60%
+4.7%
n=5
Aug
50%
−2.4%
n=6
Sep
17%
−4.9%
n=6
Oct
60%
+3.8%
n=5
Nov
80%
+7.1%
n=5
Dec
40%
−0.1%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$5$32026-06-05: 1 insider purchase, $87K — Hees Bernardo2026-06-04: 1 insider purchase, $493K — Hees Bernardo2026-06-03: 1 insider purchase, $571K — Hees Bernardo2026-06-02: 1 insider purchase, $800K — Hees Bernardo2026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $253K — Hees Bernardo2026-05-28: 1 insider purchase, $688K — Hees Bernardo2026-05-27: 1 insider purchase, $75K — Hees Bernardo2026-05-26: 1 insider purchase, $7K — Hees Bernardo2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $11K — Esposito Joseph J2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $11K2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $769K2026-06: 5 open-market purchases, $2.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Hees Bernardo — Purchase on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hees Bernardo — Purchase on 2026-06-04, filed same daydirector Hees Bernardo — Purchase on 2026-06-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hees Bernardo — Purchase on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hees Bernardo — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hees Bernardo — Purchase on 2026-05-28, filed same daydirector Hees Bernardo — Purchase on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hees Bernardo — Purchase on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Esposito Joseph J — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-05Hees BernardodirectorPurchase25,002 @ $3.49$87K+1.6% of holding−3.3%not yet — horizon still open1,574,635Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-04Hees BernardodirectorPurchase150,000 @ $3.29$493K+10.7% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open1,549,633Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-03Hees BernardodirectorPurchase170,596 @ $3.35$571K+13.9% of holding+5.6%not yet — horizon still open1,399,633Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02Hees BernardodirectorPurchase235,875 @ $3.39$800K+23.7% of holding+6.5%not yet — horizon still open1,229,037Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01Hees BernardodirectorPurchase73,640 @ $3.44$253K+8.0% of holding+6.8%not yet — horizon still open993,162Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-28Hees BernardodirectorPurchase200,989 @ $3.42$688K+28.0% of holding+3.0%not yet — horizon still open919,522Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-27Hees BernardodirectorPurchase22,114 @ $3.38$75K+3.2% of holding+6.4%not yet — horizon still open718,533Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26Hees BernardodirectorPurchase1,974 @ $3.30$7K+0.3% of holding+7.6%not yet — horizon still open696,419Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11Esposito Joseph JofficerSale2,641 @ $4.28$11K−2.4% of holding+0.7%−35.6%107,157Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-23JAB Indulgence B.V.tenPercentOwnerSale694,445 @ $4.32$3.0M−0.9% of holding−43.1%−35.5%74,190,990Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

126 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Suess Lori M.officerWithheld for tax8,391141,014Form 4
2026-07-01Esposito Joseph JofficerWithheld for tax7,998120,353Form 4
2026-06-12JAB Holdings B.V.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition7,069,9367,069,936Form 4
2026-06-12JAB Holdings B.V.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition7,069,9367,069,936Form 4
2026-06-12JAB Holdings B.V.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition7,069,9367,069,936Form 4
2026-06-12JAB Holdings B.V.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition7,069,9367,069,936Form 4
2026-06-12JAB Holdings B.V.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition7,069,9367,069,936Form 4
2026-06-12JAB Holdings B.V.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition7,069,9367,069,936Form 4
2026-06-12JAB Holdings B.V.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition7,069,9367,069,936Form 4
2026-06-10Yochem AngelaofficerAward / grant76,924289,946Form 4
2026-06-10Sundaram EaswarandirectorAward / grant33,33481,129Form 4
2026-06-10Shear David ChandirectorAward / grant39,65339,653Form 4
2026-06-10Werneck MelissadirectorAward / grant39,65339,653Form 4
2026-06-10Steele NicolaofficerAward / grant76,924388,858Form 4
2026-06-10Suess Lori M.officerAward / grant38,462149,405Form 4
2026-06-10Hees BernardodirectorAward / grant64,103149,516Form 4
2026-06-10Adams AtibaofficerAward / grant76,924273,858Form 4
2026-06-10Capel PatriciadirectorAward / grant64,103155,850Form 4
2026-06-10Charlesworth JoshdirectorAward / grant128,2061,155,035Form 4
2026-06-10Deno David J.directorAward / grant33,334184,845Form 4
2026-06-10Duvivier RaphaelofficerAward / grant96,154646,268Form 4
2026-06-10Esposito Joseph JofficerAward / grant25,642128,351Form 4
2026-06-10Grismer Patrick JdirectorAward / grant33,33481,129Form 4
2026-06-10Holder AlisonofficerAward / grant76,924399,305Form 4
2026-05-15Duvivier RaphaelofficerWithheld for tax2,493550,114Form 4
2026-05-08Steele NicolaofficerWithheld for tax8,137311,934Form 4
2026-05-08Duvivier RaphaelofficerWithheld for tax5,967552,607Form 4
2026-05-08Charlesworth JoshdirectorWithheld for tax4,2111,026,829Form 4
2026-05-08Holder AlisonofficerWithheld for tax3,692322,381Form 4
2026-05-08Esposito Joseph JofficerWithheld for tax3,467102,709Form 4
2026-05-08Suess Lori M.officerWithheld for tax667110,943Form 4
2026-05-01Charlesworth JoshdirectorWithheld for tax7,5691,031,040Form 4
2026-04-02Charlesworth JoshdirectorWithheld for tax1,9631,038,609Form 4
2026-04-02Duvivier RaphaelofficerWithheld for tax714558,819Form 4
2026-04-02Holder AlisonofficerWithheld for tax466326,073Form 4
2026-04-02Esposito Joseph JofficerWithheld for tax164106,176Form 4
2026-04-02Steele NicolaofficerWithheld for tax164320,071Form 4
2026-04-02Suess Lori M.officerWithheld for tax117111,610Form 4
2026-03-02JAB Holdings B.V.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition6,895,1206,895,120Form 4
2026-03-02JAB Holdings B.V.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition6,895,1206,895,120Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.