DMRCDigimarc Corp.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.93 · now $4.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DMRC has typically landed between $3.50 and $6.72 — a range of −29.1% to +36.4% from the issuance price $4.93.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DMRC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.5worst · -29.1%$6.72best · +36.4%
  • now $4.93 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.8 (-2.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.12–$5.49
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.5–$6.72
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−71.2%−71.2%+0.0%
2020-02-13−69.5%−69.5%+1.1%
2020-02-11−68.0%−68.0%+3.3%
3 best
2019-04-22+127.7%+0.0%+127.7%
2019-04-23+124.7%+0.0%+125.4%
2026-04-30+124.1%+0.0%+124.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
35%
+3.3%
n=20
Feb
35%
−4.5%
n=20
Mar
40%
−5.4%
n=20
Apr
55%
+4.0%
n=20
May
70%
+16.1%
n=20
Jun
60%
+3.2%
n=20
Jul
60%
−1.7%
n=20
Aug
25%
−3.9%
n=20
Sep
55%
+1.7%
n=20
Oct
45%
+2.8%
n=20
Nov
50%
+3.8%
n=20
Dec
55%
−0.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$16$42026-06-18: 1 insider sale, $256K — mccormack riley2026-06-17: 1 insider sale, $151K — mccormack riley2026-06-16: 2 insider sales, $790K — mccormack riley …2026-06: 4 open-market sales, $1.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector mccormack riley — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed same daydirector mccormack riley — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector mccormack riley — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 2 days after the tradedirector mccormack riley — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-18mccormack rileydirectorSale27,071 @ $9.46$256K−100.0% of holding−32.4%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-17mccormack rileydirectorSale15,003 @ $10.05$151K−35.7% of holding−36.5%not yet — horizon still open27,071Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-16mccormack rileydirectorSale69,363 @ $10.83$751K−62.2% of holding−42.2%not yet — horizon still open42,074Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-16mccormack rileydirectorSale3,512 @ $10.96$38K−100.0% of holding−42.2%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

140 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-15Quinn Carle AnnofficerWithheld for tax5,901177,553Form 4
2026-08-15Beck CharlesofficerWithheld for tax2,982119,712Form 4
2026-08-15Rodriguez TonyofficerWithheld for tax2,69799,299Form 4
2026-08-15Quinn Carle AnnofficerAward / grant2,617183,454Form 4
2026-08-15Beck CharlesofficerAward / grant2,617122,694Form 4
2026-08-15Sickles KenofficerAward / grant2,26873,861Form 4
2026-08-15Rodriguez TonyofficerAward / grant2,268101,996Form 4
2026-08-15Sickles KenofficerWithheld for tax1,35372,508Form 4
2026-08-03Thomas RonofficerAward / grant192,000192,000Form 4
2026-07-06CARREIRO PAULofficerAward / grant1,060,0001,060,000Form 4
2026-07-05mccormack rileydirectorAward / grant64,146128,805Form 4
2026-07-01Dadlani SandeepdirectorAward / grant1,52057,894Form 4
2026-07-01McIlwain DanadirectorAward / grant98837,765Form 4
2026-07-01Anderson-Williams LaShondadirectorAward / grant98841,951Form 4
2026-07-01Park MichaeldirectorAward / grant76039,433Form 4
2026-06-16mccormack rileydirectorOther acquisition2,275,7370Form 4
2026-06-16mccormack rileydirectorOther acquisition2,275,7370Form 4
2026-06-16mccormack rileydirectorOther acquisition2,275,7370Form 4
2026-06-16mccormack rileydirectorOther acquisition2,275,7370Form 4
2026-06-15Quinn Carle AnnofficerAward / grant3,126180,837Form 4
2026-06-15Beck CharlesofficerAward / grant2,767120,077Form 4
2026-06-01Quinn Carle AnnofficerAward / grant11,991177,711Form 4
2026-06-01Rodriguez TonyofficerAward / grant10,39399,728Form 4
2026-05-21mccormack rileydirectorAward / grant5005,603Form 4
2026-05-21mccormack rileydirectorAward / grant500500Form 4
2026-05-21mccormack rileydirectorOption exercise5000Form 4
2026-05-19mccormack rileydirectorAward / grant5,1035,103Form 4
2026-05-19mccormack rileydirectorAward / grant1,050,0001,050,000Form 4
2026-05-15Quinn Carle AnnofficerAward / grant26,796169,458Form 4
2026-05-15Beck CharlesofficerAward / grant26,796118,114Form 4
2026-05-15Rodriguez TonyofficerAward / grant22,71689,389Form 4
2026-05-15Sickles KenofficerAward / grant17,86871,243Form 4
2026-05-15Quinn Carle AnnofficerWithheld for tax4,055167,414Form 4
2026-05-15Quinn Carle AnnofficerAward / grant2,011171,469Form 4
2026-05-15Beck CharlesofficerAward / grant2,011120,125Form 4
2026-05-15Beck CharlesofficerWithheld for tax1,848117,310Form 4
2026-05-15Sickles KenofficerAward / grant1,74372,986Form 4
2026-05-15Rodriguez TonyofficerAward / grant1,74391,132Form 4
2026-05-15Quinn Carle AnnofficerWithheld for tax1,694165,720Form 4
2026-05-15Rodriguez TonyofficerWithheld for tax1,18089,335Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.