Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.53 · now $24.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DMRA has typically landed between $16.30 and $36.82 — a range of −33.6% to +50.1% from the issuance price $24.53.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,451 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DMRA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $24.53 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.11 (-1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.73–$27.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.3–$36.82
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-07-27 | −81.6% | −81.6% | +1.3% |
| 2023-07-26 | −81.5% | −81.5% | +0.0% |
| 2023-07-31 | −81.1% | −81.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-07 | +494.9% | +0.0% | +494.9% |
| 2025-09-09 | +471.7% | +0.0% | +471.7% |
| 2025-11-06 | +377.5% | −14.9% | +378.4% |
1,451 overlapping windows · 2020-10-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Winslow Garrett | officer | Sale | 245 @ $29.98 | $7K | −9.7% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,289 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
12 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Cheng Andrew | director | Award / grant | 30,350 | 30,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Winslow Garrett | officer | Option exercise | 680 | 640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Winslow Garrett | officer | Option exercise | 680 | 2,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Winslow Garrett | officer | Option exercise | 680 | 2,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 1,500,000 | 1,500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Winslow Garrett | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 37,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Landsittel Michael | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 37,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Bruno Julianne | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 37,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | CAIN CHRISTOPHER W. | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 37,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Turtle Cameron | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 37,313 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.