Issued 2026-09-16 at $31.50 · now $31.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DMC has typically landed between $27.63 and $35.70 — a range of −12.3% to +13.3% from the issuance price $31.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($31.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DMC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $31.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $31.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $31.43 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $29.75–$33.12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $27.63–$35.7
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-02-05 | −48.5% | −48.5% | +3.0% |
| 2009-02-06 | −46.2% | −50.0% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-09 | −44.3% | −49.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-10-27 | +56.1% | +0.0% | +56.1% |
| 2009-07-10 | +52.4% | +0.0% | +52.4% |
| 2008-10-24 | +51.5% | −2.6% | +51.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Dumas Danny | officer | Sale | 245 @ $32.03 | $8K | −7.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,262 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Abbas Mohammed | officer | Purchase | 12,000 @ $29.89 | $359K | +20.0% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
4 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Dumas Danny | officer | Option exercise | 884 | 3,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | Dumas Danny | officer | Option exercise | 884 | 884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | Dumas Danny | officer | Option exercise | 63 | 3,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | Dumas Danny | officer | Option exercise | 64 | 560 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.