Issued 2026-09-16 at $112.40 · now $112.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DLTR has typically landed between $94.00 and $131.01 — a range of −16.4% to +16.6% from the issuance price $112.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($112.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DLTR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $112.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $112.4 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $113.94 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $104.95–$122.92
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $94–$131.01
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-08-05 | −34.1% | −34.1% | +4.2% |
| 2024-08-09 | −31.2% | −33.1% | +5.7% |
| 2024-08-07 | −30.0% | −33.1% | +5.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-10-26 | +39.7% | −0.4% | +39.7% |
| 2021-10-25 | +37.8% | −0.5% | +37.8% |
| 2021-10-27 | +35.0% | +0.0% | +40.3% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-28.14
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$156.44
- Analyst target · range $85.00–$165.00$125.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$112.40
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Stahl Stephanie | director | Sale | 1,185 @ $131.47 | $156K | −22.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,089 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | Aflatooni Robert | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $126.01 | $315K | −9.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,820 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 2,230,455 @ $111.31 | $248.3M | −17.6% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,476,208 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 190,199 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 78,711 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 33,981 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 900,360 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 2,501,339 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 6,231,104 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 70,259 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 21,499 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 146,571 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 178,586 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 237,336 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 190,199 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 78,711 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 33,981 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 900,360 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 2,501,339 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 6,231,104 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 70,259 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 21,499 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 146,571 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 178,586 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 237,336 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 190,199 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 78,711 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 33,981 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 900,360 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 2,501,339 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 6,231,104 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 70,259 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 21,499 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 146,571 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 178,586 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 237,336 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 190,199 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 78,711 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 33,981 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 900,360 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 2,501,339 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 6,231,104 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 70,259 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 21,499 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 146,571 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 178,586 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Sale | 237,336 | — | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Aflatooni Robert | officer | Sale | 175 @ $131.18 | $23K | −0.8% of holding | −6.0% | −15.1% | 21,227 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Beebe Brent A. | officer | Sale | 2,200 @ $124.65 | $274K | −13.8% of holding | +8.2% | −15.0% | 13,740 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | Aflatooni Robert | officer | Sale | 1,260 @ $94.70 | $119K | −5.6% of holding | +7.3% | +1.1% | 21,402 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Glendinning Stewart | officer | Purchase | 3,000 @ $97.46 | $292K | +6.0% of holding | −17.9% | +12.6% | 52,853 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Stahl Stephanie | director | Sale | 1,185 @ $100.32 | $119K | −22.5% of holding | −17.3% | +9.2% | 4,089 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Glendinning Stewart | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $99.50 | $50K | +1.0% of holding | −17.3% | +9.2% | 49,853 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Aflatooni Robert | officer | Sale | 175 @ $97.54 | $17K | −0.7% of holding | +10.5% | +14.4% | 23,205 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Maheshwari Aditya | officer | Purchase | 610 @ $98.19 | $60K | +14.4% of holding | +9.6% | +18.6% | 4,841 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | McNeely Richard L | officer | Sale | 21,026 @ $94.62 | $2.0M | −29.4% of holding | +6.4% | +14.5% | 50,419 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Glendinning Stewart | officer | Purchase | 13,000 @ $72.83 | $947K | +35.8% of holding | +10.8% | +9.2% | 49,353 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Glendinning Stewart | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $72.50 | $290K | +12.4% of holding | +7.8% | +6.1% | 36,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Maheshwari Aditya | officer | Sale | 1,238 @ $74.70 | $92K | −22.6% of holding | +7.8% | +6.1% | 4,231 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | Douglas William W III | director | Purchase | 6,799 @ $68.87 | $468K | +493.8% of holding | +19.9% | +8.5% | 8,176 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
136 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Maheshwari Aditya | officer | Withheld for tax | 127 | 5,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Stahl Stephanie | director | Conversion | 1,185 | 5,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Stahl Stephanie | director | Conversion | 1,185 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Stahl Stephanie | director | Conversion | 1,185 | 5,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Stahl Stephanie | director | Conversion | 1,185 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Schumacher Steven | officer | Withheld for tax | 282 | 22,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | KELLY EDWARD J III | director | Award / grant | 2,064 | 2,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SCOTT BERTRAM L | director | Award / grant | 1,238 | 1,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Douglas William W III | director | Award / grant | 1,238 | 1,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Stahl Stephanie | director | Award / grant | 1,238 | 1,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | JOHNSON TIMOTHY A | director | Award / grant | 1,238 | 3,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | HEINRICH DANIEL J | director | Award / grant | 1,238 | 12,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Randolph Diane | director | Award / grant | 1,238 | 5,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | GRISE CHERYL W | director | Award / grant | 1,238 | 2,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Stahl Stephanie | director | Award / grant | 371 | 371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | KELLY EDWARD J III | director | Award / grant | 310 | 2,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Randolph Diane | director | Conversion | 1,398 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Randolph Diane | director | Conversion | 1,398 | 4,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Randolph Diane | director | Conversion | 1,398 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Randolph Diane | director | Conversion | 1,398 | 4,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Other acquisition | 10,266,164 | 210,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Conversion | 602,170 | 12,706,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Conversion | 602,170 | 33,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Conversion | 602,170 | 12,706,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Conversion | 602,170 | 33,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Conversion | 602,170 | 12,706,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Conversion | 602,170 | 33,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Conversion | 602,170 | 12,706,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mantle Ridge LP | director | Conversion | 602,170 | 33,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Creedon Michael C Jr | director | Withheld for tax | 10,224 | 73,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Glendinning Stewart | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,864 | 47,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Aflatooni Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,810 | 18,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Schumacher Steven | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,981 | 15,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mitchell John S. JR | officer | Withheld for tax | 980 | 12,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Maheshwari Aditya | officer | Withheld for tax | 773 | 4,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Konrad Jocelyn Z | officer | Withheld for tax | 659 | 15,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Beebe Brent A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 631 | 13,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Stahl Stephanie | director | Award / grant | 414 | 414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | KELLY EDWARD J III | director | Award / grant | 345 | 345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Konrad Jocelyn Z | officer | Award / grant | 5,979 | 21,838 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2026-05-19 | 2026-04-09 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-28 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-02-11 | 2026-01-13 | $100–250K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2025-09-17 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-24 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-24 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-27 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-10 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-26 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-22 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-22 | $50–100K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.