DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Discount Storesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $112.40 · now $112.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DLTR has typically landed between $94.00 and $131.01 — a range of −16.4% to +16.6% from the issuance price $112.40.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-022026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($112.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DLTR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $112.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$94worst · -16.4%$131.01best · +16.6%
  • now $112.4 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $113.94 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $104.95$122.92
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $94$131.01
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-08-05−34.1%−34.1%+4.2%
2024-08-09−31.2%−33.1%+5.7%
2024-08-07−30.0%−33.1%+5.8%
3 best
2021-10-26+39.7%−0.4%+39.7%
2021-10-25+37.8%−0.5%+37.8%
2021-10-27+35.0%+0.0%+40.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-022026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$23.1B
market cap
$6.40
EPS (TTM)
18.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-02
next earnings
Revenue$19.4B
'20'25
Net income$1.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr34.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.88
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $112.40$-43.59$180.45
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-28.14
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$156.44
  • Analyst target · range $85.00$165.00$125.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$112.40

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−1.2%
n=18
Feb
42%
+2.1%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.6%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.5%
n=19
May
58%
+2.5%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.6%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.6%
n=19
Aug
32%
−3.8%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.6%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.7%
n=18
Nov
83%
+8.1%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$141$852026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $156K — Stahl Stephanie2026-08-31: 1 insider sale, $315K — Aflatooni Robert2026-06-24: 45 insider sales, $248.3M — Mantle Ridge LP …2026-01-07: 1 insider sale, $23K — Aflatooni Robert2025-12-08: 1 insider sale, $274K — Beebe Brent A.2025-10-17: 1 insider sale, $119K — Aflatooni Robert2025-09-08: 1 insider purchase, $292K — Glendinning Stewart2025-09-05: 1 insider sale, $119K — Stahl Stephanie2025-09-05: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Glendinning Stewart2025-09: 2 open-market purchases, $342K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $119K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $119K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $274K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $23K2026-06: 45 open-market sales, $248.3M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $315K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $156K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Stahl Stephanie — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed same dayofficer Aflatooni Robert — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Aflatooni Robert — Sale on 2026-01-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Beebe Brent A. — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Aflatooni Robert — Sale on 2025-10-17, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Glendinning Stewart — Purchase on 2025-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Stahl Stephanie — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Glendinning Stewart — Purchase on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Stahl StephaniedirectorSale1,185 @ $131.47$156K−22.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,089Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-31Aflatooni RobertofficerSale2,500 @ $126.01$315K−9.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open24,820Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale2,230,455 @ $111.31$248.3M−17.6% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open10,476,208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale190,199−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale78,711−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale33,981−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale900,360−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale2,501,339−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale6,231,104−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale70,259−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale21,499−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale146,571−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale178,586−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale237,336−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale190,199−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale78,711−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale33,981−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale900,360−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale2,501,339−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale6,231,104−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale70,259−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale21,499−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale146,571−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale178,586−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale237,336−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale190,199−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale78,711−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale33,981−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale900,360−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale2,501,339−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale6,231,104−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale70,259−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale21,499−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale146,571−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale178,586−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale237,336−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale190,199−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale78,711−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale33,981−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale900,360−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale2,501,339−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale6,231,104−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale70,259−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale21,499−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale146,571−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale178,586−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale237,336−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-07Aflatooni RobertofficerSale175 @ $131.18$23K−0.8% of holding−6.0%−15.1%21,227Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-08Beebe Brent A.officerSale2,200 @ $124.65$274K−13.8% of holding+8.2%−15.0%13,740Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-17Aflatooni RobertofficerSale1,260 @ $94.70$119K−5.6% of holding+7.3%+1.1%21,402Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-08Glendinning StewartofficerPurchase3,000 @ $97.46$292K+6.0% of holding−17.9%+12.6%52,853Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-05Stahl StephaniedirectorSale1,185 @ $100.32$119K−22.5% of holding−17.3%+9.2%4,089Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-05Glendinning StewartofficerPurchase500 @ $99.50$50K+1.0% of holding−17.3%+9.2%49,853Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-20Aflatooni RobertofficerSale175 @ $97.54$17K−0.7% of holding+10.5%+14.4%23,205Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-18Maheshwari AdityaofficerPurchase610 @ $98.19$60K+14.4% of holding+9.6%+18.6%4,841Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-06McNeely Richard LofficerSale21,026 @ $94.62$2.0M−29.4% of holding+6.4%+14.5%50,419Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-15Glendinning StewartofficerPurchase13,000 @ $72.83$947K+35.8% of holding+10.8%+9.2%49,353Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-14Glendinning StewartofficerPurchase4,000 @ $72.50$290K+12.4% of holding+7.8%+6.1%36,353Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-14Maheshwari AdityaofficerSale1,238 @ $74.70$92K−22.6% of holding+7.8%+6.1%4,231Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-03Douglas William W IIIdirectorPurchase6,799 @ $68.87$468K+493.8% of holding+19.9%+8.5%8,176Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

136 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-02Maheshwari AdityaofficerWithheld for tax1275,896Form 4
2026-08-01Stahl StephaniedirectorConversion1,1855,274Form 4
2026-08-01Stahl StephaniedirectorConversion1,1850Form 4
2026-08-01Stahl StephaniedirectorConversion1,1855,274Form 4
2026-08-01Stahl StephaniedirectorConversion1,1850Form 4
2026-07-05Schumacher StevenofficerWithheld for tax28222,178Form 4
2026-07-01KELLY EDWARD J IIIdirectorAward / grant2,0642,064Form 4
2026-07-01SCOTT BERTRAM LdirectorAward / grant1,2381,238Form 4
2026-07-01Douglas William W IIIdirectorAward / grant1,2381,238Form 4
2026-07-01Stahl StephaniedirectorAward / grant1,2381,610Form 4
2026-07-01JOHNSON TIMOTHY AdirectorAward / grant1,2383,391Form 4
2026-07-01HEINRICH DANIEL JdirectorAward / grant1,23812,538Form 4
2026-07-01Randolph DianedirectorAward / grant1,2385,352Form 4
2026-07-01GRISE CHERYL WdirectorAward / grant1,2382,238Form 4
2026-07-01Stahl StephaniedirectorAward / grant371371Form 4
2026-07-01KELLY EDWARD J IIIdirectorAward / grant3102,373Form 4
2026-07-01Randolph DianedirectorConversion1,3980Form 4
2026-07-01Randolph DianedirectorConversion1,3984,114Form 4
2026-07-01Randolph DianedirectorConversion1,3980Form 4
2026-07-01Randolph DianedirectorConversion1,3984,114Form 4
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorOther acquisition10,266,164210,044Form 4
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorConversion602,17012,706,663Form 4
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorConversion602,17033,981Form 4
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorConversion602,17012,706,663Form 4
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorConversion602,17033,981Form 4
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorConversion602,17012,706,663Form 4
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorConversion602,17033,981Form 4
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorConversion602,17012,706,663Form 4
2026-06-24Mantle Ridge LPdirectorConversion602,17033,981Form 4
2026-04-01Creedon Michael C JrdirectorWithheld for tax10,22473,370Form 4
2026-04-01Glendinning StewartofficerWithheld for tax4,86447,989Form 4
2026-04-01Aflatooni RobertofficerWithheld for tax2,81018,581Form 4
2026-04-01Schumacher StevenofficerWithheld for tax1,98115,561Form 4
2026-04-01Mitchell John S. JRofficerWithheld for tax98012,619Form 4
2026-04-01Maheshwari AdityaofficerWithheld for tax7734,068Form 4
2026-04-01Konrad Jocelyn ZofficerWithheld for tax65915,859Form 4
2026-04-01Beebe Brent A.officerWithheld for tax63113,021Form 4
2026-04-01Stahl StephaniedirectorAward / grant414414Form 4
2026-04-01KELLY EDWARD J IIIdirectorAward / grant345345Form 4
2026-04-01Konrad Jocelyn ZofficerAward / grant5,97921,838Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2026-05-192026-04-09$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-02-132026-01-28$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-02-112026-01-13$100–250K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-09-17$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-11-102025-10-24$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-24$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-27$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-11-102025-10-10$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-10-102025-09-26$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-22$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-22$50–100K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.