DLTHDuluth Holdings Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.14 · now $4.14 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DLTH has typically landed between $3.31 and $5.01 — a range of −20.0% to +21.1% from the issuance price $4.14.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,698 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-11-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.14) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DLTH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.14 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.31worst · -20.0%$5.01best · +21.1%
  • now $4.14 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.04 (-2.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.71–$4.36
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.31–$5.01
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,698 windows spanning 2015-11-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-04−52.7%−52.7%+0.0%
2020-03-05−52.1%−52.1%+0.0%
2020-03-03−50.3%−50.3%+2.4%
3 best
2020-05-15+126.7%+0.0%+169.0%
2020-05-08+123.9%−17.0%+123.9%
2020-05-14+117.9%+0.0%+169.7%

2,698 overlapping windows · 2015-11-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
36%
+0.2%
n=11
Feb
27%
−4.3%
n=11
Mar
64%
+1.0%
n=11
Apr
36%
−3.1%
n=11
May
55%
+0.1%
n=11
Jun
55%
+12.5%
n=11
Jul
45%
−2.4%
n=11
Aug
64%
+4.5%
n=11
Sep
45%
+5.2%
n=11
Oct
60%
+1.8%
n=10
Nov
50%
+3.1%
n=10
Dec
36%
−11.8%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$5$22025-12-24: 1 insider purchase, $23K — Schlecht Richard W2025-12-23: 1 insider purchase, $39K — Schlecht Richard W2025-09-26: 1 insider purchase, $35K — AGRAWAL HEENA2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $35K2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $62K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Schlecht Richard W — Purchase on 2025-12-24, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Schlecht Richard W — Purchase on 2025-12-23, filed 6 days after the tradeofficer AGRAWAL HEENA — Purchase on 2025-09-26, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-12-24Schlecht Richard WofficerPurchase10,502 @ $2.22$23K+3.1% of holding+12.6%+105.4%352,233Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-23Schlecht Richard WofficerPurchase18,052 @ $2.17$39K+5.6% of holding+9.8%+86.6%341,731Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-09-26AGRAWAL HEENAofficerPurchase10,000 @ $3.50$35K+4.2% of holding−15.4%−14.4%248,093Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-16AGRAWAL HEENAofficerPurchase13,000 @ $1.90$25K+5.8% of holding+14.8%+54.7%238,093Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-11AGRAWAL HEENAofficerPurchase9,000 @ $1.84$17K+4.2% of holding−9.4%+64.1%225,093Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-03Paschke Brett LeedirectorPurchase50,000 @ $1.81$91K+114.2% of holding−10.8%+88.4%93,801Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-03FINCH DAVID COLEdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $1.90$9K+3.1% of holding−10.8%+88.4%164,926Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-02Kennedy Janet HdirectorAward / grant3,695143,226Form 4
2026-08-02Williams Scott KdirectorAward / grant4,434169,376Form 4
2026-08-02Williams Scott KdirectorAward / grant4,434169,376Form 4
2026-08-02Kennedy Janet HdirectorAward / grant3,695143,226Form 4
2026-07-25Weber Garth N.officerWithheld for tax422169,962Form 4
2026-06-03Robinson RonalddirectorAward / grant22,85897,831Form 4
2026-06-03Williams Scott KdirectorAward / grant22,858164,942Form 4
2026-06-03FINCH DAVID COLEdirectorAward / grant22,858230,338Form 4
2026-06-03Kennedy Janet HdirectorAward / grant22,858139,531Form 4
2026-06-03Paschke Brett LeedirectorAward / grant22,858159,213Form 4
2026-06-03Robinson RonalddirectorAward / grant22,85897,831Form 4
2026-06-03Williams Scott KdirectorAward / grant22,858164,942Form 4
2026-06-03RILEY SUSAN JdirectorAward / grant22,858105,414Form 4
2026-06-03FINCH DAVID COLEdirectorAward / grant22,858230,338Form 4
2026-06-03Kennedy Janet HdirectorAward / grant22,858139,531Form 4
2026-06-03Paschke Brett LeedirectorAward / grant22,858159,213Form 4
2026-06-03RILEY SUSAN JdirectorAward / grant22,858105,414Form 4
2026-05-05PUGLIESE STEPHANIE L.directorWithheld for tax181,9352,265,225Form 4
2026-05-03Kennedy Janet HdirectorAward / grant4,545116,673Form 4
2026-05-03Kennedy Janet HdirectorAward / grant4,545116,673Form 4
2026-05-03Williams Scott KdirectorAward / grant5,455142,084Form 4
2026-04-08Homolka DavidofficerWithheld for tax3,425376,174Form 4
2026-04-08Schlecht Richard WofficerWithheld for tax3,162400,059Form 4
2026-04-08Weber Garth N.officerWithheld for tax1,674170,384Form 4
2026-04-04Homolka DavidofficerWithheld for tax1,312379,599Form 4
2026-04-04Schlecht Richard WofficerWithheld for tax1,211403,221Form 4
2026-03-31Schlecht Richard WofficerAward / grant1,000404,432Form 4
2026-03-31Homolka DavidofficerAward / grant1,000380,911Form 4
2026-03-23AGRAWAL HEENAofficerAward / grant165,325396,152Form 4
2026-03-23Schlecht Richard WofficerAward / grant71,195403,432Form 4
2026-03-23AGRAWAL HEENAofficerAward / grant165,325396,152Form 4
2026-03-23PUGLIESE STEPHANIE L.directorAward / grant730,1592,447,160Form 4
2026-03-23Homolka DavidofficerAward / grant126,244379,911Form 4
2026-03-23Schlecht Richard WofficerAward / grant71,195403,432Form 4
2026-03-23Weber Garth N.officerAward / grant69,746172,058Form 4
2026-03-23PUGLIESE STEPHANIE L.directorAward / grant730,1592,447,160Form 4
2026-03-23Homolka DavidofficerAward / grant126,244379,911Form 4
2026-03-23Weber Garth N.officerAward / grant69,746172,058Form 4
2026-03-17AGRAWAL HEENAofficerWithheld for tax17,266230,827Form 4
2026-03-17Homolka DavidofficerWithheld for tax13,331253,667Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.