Issued 2026-09-16 at $123.65 · now $123.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DKS has typically landed between $105.03 and $145.80 — a range of −15.1% to +17.9% from the issuance price $123.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($123.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DKS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $123.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $123.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $124.55 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $116.04–$133.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $105.03–$145.8
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −61.2% | −61.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −60.6% | −61.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −59.1% | −60.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +60.0% | +0.0% | +66.5% |
| 2020-03-20 | +56.8% | +0.0% | +64.1% |
| 2020-04-01 | +53.0% | +0.0% | +76.9% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | COLOMBO WILLIAM J | director | Purchase | 913 @ $133.19 | $122K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 181,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Barrenechea Mark J | director | Purchase | 17,000 @ $130.72 | $2.2M | +189.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,977 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | COLOMBO WILLIAM J | director | Purchase | 1,100 @ $129.00 | $142K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,087 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | COLOMBO WILLIAM J | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $128.72 | $644K | +2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 178,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $128.69 | $515K | +58.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | MATHRANI SANDEEP | director | Purchase | 1,550 @ $128.89 | $200K | +16.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,136 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Sale | 13,292 @ $228.34 | $3.0M | −4.0% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 321,763 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Sale | 6,791 @ $227.69 | $1.5M | −2.0% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 335,055 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Lodge-Jarrett Julie | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $221.13 | $553K | −8.7% of holding | −10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,397 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Lodge-Jarrett Julie | officer | Sale | 1,640 @ $227.26 | $373K | −6.2% of holding | −10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,757 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Sale | 86,848 @ $197.84 | $17.2M | −1.3% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,587,688 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Sale | 73,136 @ $197.01 | $14.4M | −1.1% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,674,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Sale | 22,722 @ $198.65 | $4.5M | −0.3% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,564,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Sale | 15,940 @ $200.02 | $3.2M | −0.2% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,549,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Sale | 11,832 @ $195.77 | $2.3M | −0.2% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,747,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Sale | 10,699 @ $219.98 | $2.4M | −3.3% of holding | +1.0% | −7.3% | 309,374 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Sale | 7,364 @ $220.87 | $1.6M | −2.4% of holding | +1.0% | −7.3% | 302,010 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Sale | 1,017 @ $221.69 | $225K | −0.3% of holding | +1.0% | −7.3% | 300,993 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Sale | 776 @ $226.40 | $176K | −0.3% of holding | +1.0% | −7.3% | 300,017 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Sale | 200 @ $223.91 | $45K | −0.1% of holding | +1.0% | −7.3% | 300,793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Sale | 27 @ $227.90 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | +1.0% | −7.3% | 299,990 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Gupta Navdeep | director | Sale | 13,334 @ $225.00 | $3.0M | −15.2% of holding | −3.4% | −17.1% | 74,444 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Gupta Navdeep | director | Sale | 9,303 @ $215.00 | $2.0M | −9.6% of holding | −3.4% | −8.8% | 87,778 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Baran Elizabeth H. | officer | Sale | 1,330 @ $204.69 | $272K | −9.6% of holding | −0.0% | −13.6% | 12,465 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-02 | Baran Elizabeth H. | officer | Sale | 500 @ $204.54 | $102K | −3.5% of holding | −0.0% | −13.6% | 13,795 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-27 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Sale | 26,778 @ $204.26 | $5.5M | −7.9% of holding | +2.6% | −8.1% | 313,378 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Sale | 13,388 @ $205.21 | $2.7M | −4.3% of holding | +2.6% | −8.1% | 299,990 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | Lodge-Jarrett Julie | officer | Sale | 1,026 @ $203.50 | $209K | −5.4% of holding | +2.6% | −8.1% | 18,139 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-26 | Lodge-Jarrett Julie | officer | Sale | 3,541 @ $187.00 | $662K | −15.6% of holding | +8.0% | −5.0% | 19,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Purchase | 1,280 @ $194.99 | $250K | +26.8% of holding | +8.0% | −5.0% | 6,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Purchase | 1,357 @ $185.31 | $251K | +39.8% of holding | +12.0% | −0.7% | 4,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Lodge-Jarrett Julie | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $227.68 | $683K | −14.0% of holding | −1.3% | −10.6% | 18,504 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Lodge-Jarrett Julie | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $228.46 | $457K | −10.8% of holding | −1.3% | −10.6% | 16,504 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Sale | 114,609 @ $228.47 | $26.2M | −1.3% of holding | +3.5% | −10.4% | 8,408,119 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Sale | 28,938 @ $229.23 | $6.6M | −0.3% of holding | +3.5% | −10.4% | 8,379,181 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Sale | 13,692 @ $235.16 | $3.2M | −0.2% of holding | +3.5% | −10.4% | 8,362,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Sale | 1,290 @ $232.52 | $300K | −0.0% of holding | +3.5% | −10.4% | 8,376,420 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Sale | 1,171 @ $230.26 | $270K | −0.0% of holding | +3.5% | −10.4% | 8,378,010 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Sale | 600 @ $233.71 | $140K | −0.0% of holding | +3.5% | −10.4% | 8,375,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Sale | 300 @ $231.44 | $69K | −0.0% of holding | +3.5% | −10.4% | 8,377,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | SCHORR LAWRENCE J | director | Sale | 2,663 @ $232.64 | $620K | −4.6% of holding | +1.8% | −14.1% | 55,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | SCHORR LAWRENCE J | director | Sale | 2,302 @ $231.39 | $533K | −4.1% of holding | +1.8% | −14.1% | 53,365 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | SCHORR LAWRENCE J | director | Sale | 2,188 @ $230.58 | $505K | −4.1% of holding | +1.8% | −14.1% | 51,177 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | SCHORR LAWRENCE J | director | Sale | 180 @ $229.33 | $41K | −0.4% of holding | +1.8% | −14.1% | 50,997 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
106 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Baran Elizabeth H. | officer | Withheld for tax | 68 | 14,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Withheld for tax | 442,692 | 7,082,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Option exercise | 958,466 | 7,524,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Option exercise | 958,466 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Ralls-Morrison Desiree | director | Award / grant | 838 | 7,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Fink Anne | director | Award / grant | 838 | 18,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Fitzgerald Larry Jr. | director | Award / grant | 838 | 13,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Barrenechea Mark J | director | Award / grant | 838 | 1,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | CHIRICO EMANUEL | director | Award / grant | 838 | 47,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | COLOMBO WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 838 | 838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SCHORR LAWRENCE J | director | Award / grant | 838 | 51,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | MATHRANI SANDEEP | director | Award / grant | 838 | 2,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Award / grant | 838 | 6,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Option exercise | 20,083 | 341,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Option exercise | 20,083 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Lodge-Jarrett Julie | officer | Gift | 150 | 24,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Lodge-Jarrett Julie | officer | Option exercise | 4,140 | 28,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Lodge-Jarrett Julie | officer | Option exercise | 4,140 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Withheld for tax | 28,211 | 6,566,448 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Withheld for tax | 20,619 | 321,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Gupta Navdeep | director | Withheld for tax | 3,767 | 78,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Rak Vladimir | director | Withheld for tax | 3,533 | 35,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Sliva Raymond A. Jr. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,341 | 36,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Lodge-Jarrett Julie | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,122 | 24,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Baran Elizabeth H. | officer | Withheld for tax | 438 | 15,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Stack Michael E. | tenPercentOwner | Withheld for tax | 327 | 38,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Stack Michael E. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 1,630 | 38,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Gupta Navdeep | director | Award / grant | 4,890 | 82,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Award / grant | 20,861 | 342,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Rak Vladimir | director | Award / grant | 3,260 | 38,953 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Lodge-Jarrett Julie | officer | Award / grant | 5,868 | 26,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Freeman Ann | director | Award / grant | 3,912 | 8,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Sliva Raymond A. Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 3,260 | 38,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Baran Elizabeth H. | officer | Award / grant | 1,630 | 15,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Barnes Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 3,912 | 8,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Award / grant | 45,633 | 6,594,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Option exercise | 210,478 | 6,759,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | STACK EDWARD W | director | Option exercise | 210,478 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Baran Elizabeth H. | officer | Award / grant | 1,436 | 13,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Stack Michael E. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 1,436 | 36,753 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.