Issued 2026-09-16 at $79.16 · now $79.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DK has typically landed between $64.41 and $101.18 — a range of −18.6% to +27.8% from the issuance price $79.16.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($79.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $79.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $79.16 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $80.94 (+2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $72.7–$89.18
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $64.41–$101.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-11 | −68.3% | −68.3% | +1.3% |
| 2020-02-13 | −65.2% | −68.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-12 | −63.4% | −68.6% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-12 | +96.3% | +0.0% | +109.0% |
| 2009-03-05 | +85.0% | +0.0% | +87.8% |
| 2009-03-02 | +72.9% | −1.1% | +88.8% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+2.2%
n=20
Feb
50%
+4.8%
n=20
Mar
65%
+7.0%
n=20
Apr
45%
+2.4%
n=20
May
55%
+4.3%
n=20
Jun
45%
−0.6%
n=20
Jul
65%
+2.8%
n=20
Aug
40%
+1.5%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.2%
n=20
Oct
50%
−0.8%
n=20
Nov
60%
+2.5%
n=20
Dec
35%
−1.3%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Russell Amber | officer | Sale | 5,392 @ $75.50 | $407K | −13.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,670 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | FINNERTY WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 1,602 @ $77.59 | $124K | −5.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,405 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | FINNERTY WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 1,341 @ $76.67 | $103K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,007 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Sutil Vicky | director | Sale | 6,397 @ $71.50 | $457K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,407 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Spiegel Reuven | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $73.20 | $512K | −19.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,435 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Spiegel Reuven | director | Sale | 500 @ $73.36 | $37K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,935 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Sullivan Gary M Jr. | director | Sale | 27,688 @ $69.01 | $1.9M | −46.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,004 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Marcogliese Richard J | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $71.05 | $142K | −13.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,880 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | FINNERTY WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 1,457 @ $64.70 | $94K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,348 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Spiegel Reuven | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $68.21 | $682K | −21.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,435 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Soreq Avigal | director | Sale | 57,700 @ $66.62 | $3.8M | −19.1% of holding | +20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 244,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Hobbs Mark Wayne | officer | Sale | 15,124 @ $64.36 | $973K | −12.2% of holding | +20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Soreq Avigal | director | Sale | 13,074 @ $67.20 | $879K | −5.3% of holding | +20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 231,486 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Hobbs Mark Wayne | officer | Sale | 4,876 @ $65.28 | $318K | −4.5% of holding | +20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Soreq Avigal | director | Sale | 4,623 @ $65.35 | $302K | −1.5% of holding | +20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 302,260 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Soreq Avigal | director | Sale | 4,603 @ $64.38 | $296K | −1.5% of holding | +20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 306,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 82,224 @ $67.74 | $5.6M | −21.0% of holding | +11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 309,617 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 61,822 @ $68.27 | $4.2M | −20.0% of holding | +11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 247,795 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 38,388 @ $66.64 | $2.6M | −8.9% of holding | +11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 391,841 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 17,566 @ $65.75 | $1.2M | −3.9% of holding | +11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 430,229 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | FINNERTY WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $51.50 | $258K | −12.6% of holding | +27.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,805 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Sutil Vicky | director | Sale | 1,871 @ $48.00 | $90K | −6.0% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,368 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Sutil Vicky | director | Sale | 3,061 @ $46.00 | $141K | −8.9% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,239 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Sutil Vicky | director | Sale | 1,848 @ $45.00 | $83K | −5.1% of holding | +15.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,300 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sutil Vicky | director | Sale | 1,849 @ $44.03 | $81K | −4.9% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,148 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Spiegel Reuven | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $44.36 | $444K | −17.1% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,372 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Tolson Laurie Z. | director | Sale | 4,921 @ $46.30 | $228K | −21.3% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,226 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Wright Robert G. | officer | Sale | 10,720 @ $47.07 | $505K | −18.2% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,148 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 34,026 @ $47.29 | $1.6M | −7.1% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 447,795 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 577 @ $47.03 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 481,941 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 120 @ $47.03 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 210,161 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-29 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 44,997 @ $46.91 | $2.1M | −8.5% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 482,518 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 36,669 @ $46.07 | $1.7M | −6.5% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 527,515 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 9,367 @ $46.91 | $439K | −4.3% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 210,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 7,633 @ $46.07 | $352K | −3.4% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 219,648 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 5,467 @ $44.86 | $245K | −1.0% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 564,184 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 1,138 @ $44.86 | $51K | −0.5% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 227,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | FINNERTY WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $47.50 | $238K | −12.1% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,369 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Zohar Shlomo | director | Sale | 7,343 @ $46.00 | $338K | −52.5% of holding | −22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,646 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 30,525 @ $43.73 | $1.3M | −5.1% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 569,651 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 12,969 @ $44.20 | $573K | −2.1% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 600,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 8,325 @ $43.73 | $364K | −3.5% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 228,419 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | FINNERTY WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $45.50 | $228K | −10.8% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,369 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 3,537 @ $44.20 | $156K | −1.5% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 236,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | McWatters Denise Clark | officer | Sale | 11,988 @ $41.33 | $495K | −13.9% of holding | −10.8% | +64.7% | 74,196 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Zohar Shlomo | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $41.47 | $207K | −26.3% of holding | +6.6% | +76.8% | 13,989 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Zohar Shlomo | director | Sale | 7,343 @ $45.50 | $334K | −27.9% of holding | +4.1% | +49.1% | 18,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Zohar Shlomo | director | Sale | 7,343 @ $45.00 | $330K | −21.8% of holding | +4.1% | +49.1% | 26,332 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Zohar Shlomo | director | Sale | 7,343 @ $44.00 | $323K | −17.9% of holding | +4.1% | +49.1% | 33,675 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 66,511 @ $43.17 | $2.9M | −9.8% of holding | +8.3% | +54.7% | 613,145 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Israel Joseph | officer | Sale | 38,000 @ $40.65 | $1.5M | −40.6% of holding | +8.3% | +54.7% | 55,623 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Spiegel Reuven | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $42.84 | $857K | −29.2% of holding | +8.3% | +54.7% | 48,530 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Sale | 18,139 @ $43.17 | $783K | −7.0% of holding | +8.3% | +54.7% | 240,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Zohar Shlomo | director | Sale | 7,343 @ $43.00 | $316K | −15.2% of holding | +8.3% | +54.7% | 41,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | FINNERTY WILLIAM J | director | Sale | 5,392 @ $42.75 | $231K | −10.4% of holding | +8.3% | +54.7% | 46,369 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Soreq Avigal | director | Sale | 34,332 @ $40.90 | $1.4M | −11.9% of holding | +11.9% | +68.3% | 253,578 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Soreq Avigal | director | Sale | 13,768 @ $41.71 | $574K | −4.6% of holding | +11.9% | +68.3% | 287,910 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Soreq Avigal | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $39.85 | $76K | −0.7% of holding | +11.9% | +68.3% | 251,678 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Israel Joseph | officer | Sale | 4,380 @ $40.94 | $179K | −7.3% of holding | −16.0% | +2.3% | 55,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Wright Robert G. | officer | Sale | 2,303 @ $40.43 | $93K | −5.6% of holding | −16.0% | +2.3% | 38,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
115 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Soreq Avigal | director | Withheld for tax | 5,626 | 225,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Russell Amber | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,736 | 41,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Hobbs Mark Wayne | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,227 | 103,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Spiegel Reuven | director | Withheld for tax | 969 | 27,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Wright Robert G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 311 | 45,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Soreq Avigal | director | Withheld for tax | 3,810 | 311,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | McWatters Denise Clark | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,496 | 70,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Yemin Ezra Uzi | director | Award / grant | 3,436 | 213,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Schwartzstein Christine Benson | director | Award / grant | 3,436 | 18,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Tolson Laurie Z. | director | Award / grant | 3,436 | 21,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Zohar Shlomo | director | Award / grant | 3,436 | 10,082 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sutil Vicky | director | Award / grant | 3,436 | 32,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sullivan Gary M Jr. | director | Award / grant | 3,436 | 59,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Moreno Leonardo | director | Award / grant | 3,436 | 26,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | FINNERTY WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 3,436 | 39,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Marcogliese Richard J | director | Award / grant | 3,436 | 55,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Spiegel Reuven | director | Withheld for tax | 1,937 | 46,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Wright Robert G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 846 | 46,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hobbs Mark Wayne | officer | Withheld for tax | 823 | 124,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Wright Robert G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,024 | 47,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Russell Amber | officer | Award / grant | 42,798 | 42,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Soreq Avigal | director | Withheld for tax | 25,722 | 315,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | McWatters Denise Clark | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,883 | 86,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Wright Robert G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,562 | 58,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Hobbs Mark Wayne | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,206 | 125,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Soreq Avigal | director | Award / grant | 27,682 | 341,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | McWatters Denise Clark | officer | Award / grant | 10,510 | 96,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Hobbs Mark Wayne | officer | Award / grant | 10,510 | 124,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Hobbs Mark Wayne | officer | Award / grant | 6,151 | 130,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Soreq Avigal | director | Award / grant | 52,552 | 313,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Wright Robert G. | officer | Award / grant | 3,075 | 68,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Wright Robert G. | officer | Award / grant | 12,934 | 65,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Spiegel Reuven | director | Award / grant | 9,842 | 58,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Soreq Avigal | director | Withheld for tax | 5,909 | 260,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | McWatters Denise Clark | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,723 | 85,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Hobbs Mark Wayne | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,182 | 113,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Israel Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 353 | 57,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Hobbs Mark Wayne | officer | Award / grant | 3,003 | 114,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | McWatters Denise Clark | officer | Award / grant | 3,003 | 87,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Soreq Avigal | director | Award / grant | 15,015 | 266,693 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.