DISThe Walt Disney CompanyCommunication Services · Entertainmentas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $106.99 · now $106.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DIS has typically landed between $92.50 and $122.17 — a range of −13.5% to +14.2% from the issuance price $106.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($106.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DIS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $106.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$92.5worst · -13.5%$122.17best · +14.2%
  • now $106.99 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $105.42 (-1.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $99.84–$111
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $92.5–$122.17
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−38.8%−38.8%+0.0%
2020-02-21−38.3%−38.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−36.2%−36.2%+1.5%
3 best
2025-04-16+37.0%+0.0%+37.0%
2025-04-21+33.8%+0.0%+35.0%
2025-04-14+33.4%−2.2%+33.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$164.7B
market cap
$6.26
EPS (TTM)
15.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$94.4B
'20'25
Net income$12.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$10.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.41
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 17 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $106.99$93.51$169.22
  • DCF (intrinsic)$98.73
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.0× · n=17$100.33
  • Analyst target · range $110.00–$164.00$131.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$106.99

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.2%
n=18
Feb
63%
+2.2%
n=19
Mar
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.0%
n=19
May
42%
+0.3%
n=19
Jun
42%
−1.1%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.3%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.6%
n=19
Sep
37%
−1.7%
n=19
Oct
44%
+1.7%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.6%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$117$922026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $388K — WOODFORD BRENT2026-08-19: 1 insider sale, $382K — Roeder Paul M2026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $762K — WOODFORD BRENT2026-02-12: 1 insider purchase, $99K — Chang Amy2026-01-22: 1 insider sale, $282K — Coleman Sonia L2025-12-24: 1 insider sale, $277K — Coleman Sonia L2025-12-12: 1 insider purchase, $2.0M — GORMAN JAMES P2025-08-25: 1 insider sale, $234K — Coleman Sonia L2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $234K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $2.0M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $277K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $282K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $99K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $388K↑ buys↓ salesofficer WOODFORD BRENT — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Roeder Paul M — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer WOODFORD BRENT — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Chang Amy — Purchase on 2026-02-12, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Coleman Sonia L — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Coleman Sonia L — Sale on 2025-12-24, filed 5 days after the tradedirector GORMAN JAMES P — Purchase on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Coleman Sonia L — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01WOODFORD BRENTofficerSale3,618 @ $107.13$388K−5.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open62,328Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19Roeder Paul MofficerSale3,596 @ $106.32$382K−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14WOODFORD BRENTofficerSale7,238 @ $105.31$762K−10.4% of holding+2.0%not yet — horizon still open62,323Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-12Chang AmydirectorPurchase916 @ $107.85$99K+6.6% of holding−1.8%−9.4%14,720Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-01-22Coleman Sonia LofficerSale2,473 @ $114.00$282K−99.9% of holding−6.8%−23.4%2Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-24Coleman Sonia LofficerSale2,431 @ $114.00$277K−100.0% of holding−4.1%−21.8%0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-12GORMAN JAMES PdirectorPurchase18,000 @ $111.89$2.0M+90.0% of holding+0.9%−19.3%38,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-25Coleman Sonia LofficerSale1,971 @ $118.57$234K−100.0% of holding−6.8%−18.7%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13WOODFORD BRENTofficerSale1,000 @ $110.84$111K−2.1% of holding+3.6%−13.5%46,831Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-22Coleman Sonia LofficerSale689 @ $108.76$75K−100.0% of holding+0.9%+7.3%0Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

290 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise3,61865,946Form 4
2026-09-01WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise3,61810,854Form 4
2026-08-14WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise7,23869,561Form 4
2026-08-14WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise7,23814,472Form 4
2026-07-17Coleman Sonia LofficerWithheld for tax5593,757Form 4
2026-07-17WOODFORD BRENTofficerWithheld for tax36262,323Form 4
2026-07-17Roeder Paul MofficerWithheld for tax3433,593Form 4
2026-07-17Roeder Paul MofficerOption exercise9550Form 4
2026-07-17WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise1,1620Form 4
2026-07-17Coleman Sonia LofficerOption exercise1,1810Form 4
2026-07-17Coleman Sonia LofficerOption exercise1,1814,316Form 4
2026-07-17Roeder Paul MofficerOption exercise9553,936Form 4
2026-07-17WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise1,16262,685Form 4
2026-07-17WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise1,16262,685Form 4
2026-07-17Roeder Paul MofficerOption exercise9553,936Form 4
2026-07-17Coleman Sonia LofficerOption exercise1,1814,316Form 4
2026-07-15Roeder Paul MofficerWithheld for tax5922,981Form 4
2026-07-15Roeder Paul MofficerWithheld for tax5271,924Form 4
2026-07-15WOODFORD BRENTofficerWithheld for tax47760,108Form 4
2026-07-15WOODFORD BRENTofficerWithheld for tax45661,523Form 4
2026-07-15Roeder Paul MofficerOption exercise1,6498,251Form 4
2026-07-15Roeder Paul MofficerOption exercise1,4664,403Form 4
2026-07-15WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise1,9565,868Form 4
2026-07-15WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise1,8719,359Form 4
2026-07-15Roeder Paul MofficerOption exercise1,4662,451Form 4
2026-07-15Roeder Paul MofficerOption exercise1,4662,451Form 4
2026-07-15Roeder Paul MofficerOption exercise1,6493,573Form 4
2026-07-15WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise1,95660,585Form 4
2026-07-15WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise1,87161,979Form 4
2026-07-15WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise1,95660,585Form 4
2026-07-15WOODFORD BRENTofficerOption exercise1,87161,979Form 4
2026-07-15Roeder Paul MofficerOption exercise1,6493,573Form 4
2026-06-30GORMAN JAMES PdirectorAward / grant1,36410,576Form 4
2026-06-30Rice Derica WdirectorAward / grant1,02323,742Form 4
2026-06-30Barra Mary TdirectorAward / grant1,01727,766Form 4
2026-06-30Froman Michael B. G.directorAward / grant1,00424,188Form 4
2026-06-30WILLIAMS JEFFREY EdirectorAward / grant9551,109Form 4
2026-06-30Darroch JeremydirectorAward / grant9559,443Form 4
2026-06-30Chang AmydirectorAward / grant95516,756Form 4
2026-06-30Everson CarolyndirectorAward / grant95512,687Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2026-02-152026-01-08$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.