Issued 2026-09-16 at $208.36 · now $208.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DHR has typically landed between $183.75 and $231.60 — a range of −11.8% to +11.2% from the issuance price $208.36.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($208.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DHR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $208.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $208.36 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $208.58 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $198.54–$218.63
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $183.75–$231.6
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-10 | −31.1% | −31.1% | +1.3% |
| 2008-09-16 | −29.3% | −30.3% | +2.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −28.6% | −32.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-06-27 | +70.5% | +0.0% | +71.7% |
| 2016-06-17 | +69.8% | −0.4% | +70.2% |
| 2016-06-28 | +69.8% | +0.0% | +70.2% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$134.6B
market cap
$5.63
EPS (TTM)
34.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-20
next earnings
Revenue$24.6B
'20'25
Net income$3.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr14.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr6.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.35
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$210.97
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$154.49
- Analyst target · range $195.00–$249.00$225.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$208.36
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
+0.8%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.5%
n=19
Apr
47%
+0.8%
n=19
May
63%
+0.8%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.2%
n=19
Jul
68%
+6.9%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.4%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.3%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Blair Rainer | director | Sale | 39,193 @ $218.73 | $8.6M | −83.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,755 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Blair Rainer | director | Sale | 11,307 @ $217.77 | $2.5M | −19.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 46,948 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Blair Rainer | director | Sale | 7,755 @ $219.35 | $1.7M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | SPOON ALAN G | director | Sale | 1,358 @ $174.67 | $237K | −1.1% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,094 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Milosevich Gregory M | officer | Sale | 1,320 @ $208.01 | $275K | −20.6% of holding | −5.4% | −9.4% | 5,099 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | RALES MITCHELL P | director | Sale | 35,899 @ $230.27 | $8.3M | −4.0% of holding | −2.6% | −33.3% | 854,726 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | RALES MITCHELL P | director | Sale | 4,726 @ $231.19 | $1.1M | −0.6% of holding | −2.6% | −33.3% | 850,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | List Teri | director | Sale | 3,298 @ $226.50 | $747K | −13.7% of holding | −3.0% | −36.0% | 20,762 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | RALES MITCHELL P | director | Sale | 254,553 @ $218.27 | $55.6M | −26.4% of holding | +3.4% | −34.7% | 709,820 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | RALES MITCHELL P | director | Sale | 133,233 @ $219.43 | $29.2M | −18.8% of holding | +3.4% | −34.7% | 576,587 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | RALES MITCHELL P | director | Sale | 25,855 @ $217.64 | $5.6M | −2.6% of holding | +3.4% | −34.7% | 964,373 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | RALES MITCHELL P | director | Sale | 23,359 @ $220.15 | $5.1M | −4.1% of holding | +3.4% | −34.7% | 553,228 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Ellis Brian W | director | Sale | 14,667 @ $219.23 | $3.2M | −50.2% of holding | +3.4% | −34.7% | 14,553 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Ellis Brian W | director | Sale | 7,109 @ $219.21 | $1.6M | −32.8% of holding | +3.4% | −34.7% | 14,553 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | McGrew Matthew | officer | Sale | 16,172 @ $214.62 | $3.5M | −44.6% of holding | +6.8% | −33.6% | 20,062 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Couchara Georgeann | officer | Sale | 4,176 @ $210.44 | $879K | −53.5% of holding | +8.2% | −30.7% | 3,623 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Couchara Georgeann | officer | Sale | 998 @ $210.31 | $210K | −27.5% of holding | +8.2% | −30.7% | 2,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | RALES MITCHELL P | director | Sale | 308,423 @ $215.67 | $66.5M | −19.4% of holding | +5.3% | −25.4% | 1,281,805 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | RALES MITCHELL P | director | Sale | 223,449 @ $216.26 | $48.3M | −17.4% of holding | +5.3% | −25.4% | 1,058,356 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | RALES MITCHELL P | director | Sale | 68,128 @ $217.17 | $14.8M | −6.4% of holding | +5.3% | −25.4% | 990,228 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | List Teri | director | Sale | 2,778 @ $211.06 | $586K | −11.8% of holding | −13.5% | −8.1% | 20,751 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | RALES STEVEN M | director | Sale | 355,668 @ $194.97 | $69.3M | −8.5% of holding | −1.2% | −12.1% | 3,833,915 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | RALES STEVEN M | director | Sale | 189,314 @ $197.06 | $37.3M | −5.1% of holding | −1.2% | −12.1% | 3,534,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | RALES STEVEN M | director | Sale | 164,412 @ $199.15 | $32.7M | −4.7% of holding | −1.2% | −12.1% | 3,312,075 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | RALES STEVEN M | director | Sale | 166,225 @ $194.08 | $32.3M | −3.8% of holding | −1.2% | −12.1% | 4,189,583 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | RALES STEVEN M | director | Sale | 158,951 @ $199.67 | $31.7M | −4.8% of holding | −1.2% | −12.1% | 3,153,124 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | RALES STEVEN M | director | Sale | 109,801 @ $195.69 | $21.5M | −2.9% of holding | −1.2% | −12.1% | 3,724,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | RALES STEVEN M | director | Sale | 58,313 @ $197.86 | $11.5M | −1.6% of holding | −1.2% | −12.1% | 3,476,487 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | RALES STEVEN M | director | Sale | 47,316 @ $200.83 | $9.5M | −1.5% of holding | −1.2% | −12.1% | 3,105,808 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Riley Christopher Paul | officer | Sale | 8,004 @ $198.05 | $1.6M | −34.5% of holding | −11.0% | −16.9% | 15,179 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Riley Christopher Paul | officer | Sale | 7,801 @ $197.95 | $1.5M | −25.2% of holding | −11.0% | −16.9% | 23,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-07 | SPOON ALAN G | director | Sale | 550 @ $206.46 | $114K | −0.5% of holding | +6.9% | −9.6% | 120,518 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Ellis Brian W | director | Sale | 5,700 @ $224.13 | $1.3M | −22.0% of holding | −4.3% | −14.7% | 20,230 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
245 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Milosevich Gregory M | officer | Award / grant | 15,402 | 24,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Gutierrez-Ramos Jose-Carlos | director | Award / grant | 13,477 | 32,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Gugino Matthew E | officer | Award / grant | 153,563 | 153,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Riley Christopher Paul | officer | Award / grant | 41,072 | 61,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | RALES STEVEN M | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 3,605,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | RALES STEVEN M | director | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | RALES MITCHELL P | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 553,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | RALES MITCHELL P | director | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Leiken Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 92,138 | 92,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Bouda Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 12,286 | 12,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Sawyer Montgomery Julie A | officer | Award / grant | 245,701 | 245,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Zerhouni Elias A. | director | Award / grant | 237 | 18,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | SPOON ALAN G | director | Award / grant | 230 | 31,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Sanders A Shane | director | Award / grant | 211 | 3,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Stevens Raymond C | director | Award / grant | 182 | 7,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Dewan Feroz | director | Award / grant | 171 | 2,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | FILLER LINDA | director | Award / grant | 18 | 8,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | List Teri | director | Award / grant | 16 | 7,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | FILLER LINDA | director | Withheld for tax | 1,181 | 26,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Zerhouni Elias A. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,181 | 45,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Zerhouni Elias A. | director | Option exercise | 3,298 | 46,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | FILLER LINDA | director | Option exercise | 3,298 | 28,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bouda Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 60 | 9,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Zerhouni Elias A. | director | Option exercise | 3,298 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | FILLER LINDA | director | Option exercise | 3,298 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Couchara Georgeann | officer | Withheld for tax | 281 | 8,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | List Teri | director | Award / grant | 1,699 | 1,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | FILLER LINDA | director | Award / grant | 1,699 | 1,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Zerhouni Elias A. | director | Award / grant | 680 | 43,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Zerhouni Elias A. | director | Award / grant | 1,699 | 1,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | List Teri | director | Award / grant | 680 | 21,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Dewan Feroz | director | Award / grant | 680 | 4,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Dewan Feroz | director | Award / grant | 1,699 | 1,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Sanders A Shane | director | Award / grant | 680 | 5,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Sanders A Shane | director | Award / grant | 1,699 | 1,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Stevens Raymond C | director | Award / grant | 680 | 13,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Stevens Raymond C | director | Award / grant | 1,699 | 1,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Lamanna Charles W | director | Award / grant | 680 | 1,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Lamanna Charles W | director | Award / grant | 1,699 | 1,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | SPOON ALAN G | director | Award / grant | 680 | 124,774 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-22 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-14 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-05-04 | 2026-04-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.