DHID.R. Horton, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Residential Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $138.32 · now $138.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DHI has typically landed between $121.14 and $160.20 — a range of −12.4% to +15.8% from the issuance price $138.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($138.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DHI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $138.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$121.14worst · -12.4%$160.2best · +15.8%
  • now $138.32 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $139.56 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $130.01–$149.11
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $121.14–$160.2
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−66.0%−66.0%+0.0%
2008-09-25−63.6%−63.6%+0.0%
2008-09-24−61.1%−61.1%+5.6%
3 best
2009-03-05+64.4%−1.7%+64.4%
2009-03-06+58.9%−0.5%+66.4%
2008-11-21+58.4%+0.0%+96.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$41.6B
market cap
$10.49
EPS (TTM)
14.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-27
next earnings
Revenue$34.3B
'20'25
Net income$3.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr10.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr14.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.25
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $138.32$114.61$259.91
  • DCF (intrinsic)$124.63
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$249.89
  • Analyst target · range $140.00–$190.00$163.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$138.32

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+2.6%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.7%
n=19
Mar
74%
+1.7%
n=19
Apr
63%
+6.4%
n=19
May
37%
−2.7%
n=19
Jun
58%
−0.6%
n=19
Jul
79%
+6.2%
n=19
Aug
68%
+2.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.4%
n=19
Oct
39%
−2.6%
n=18
Nov
72%
+5.3%
n=18
Dec
56%
+2.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$182$1322026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $44K — Odom Aron M.2025-09-05: 3 insider sales, $5.9M — Auld David V, Odom Aron M., BUCHANAN MICHAEL R2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $205K — Odom Aron M.2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $205K2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $5.9M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $44K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Odom Aron M. — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Auld David V — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Odom Aron M. — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BUCHANAN MICHAEL R — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Odom Aron M. — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-13Odom Aron M.officerSale260 @ $167.55$44K−3.9% of holding−13.7%−25.3%6,457Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-05Auld David VdirectorSale30,000 @ $182.21$5.5M−3.5% of holding−9.7%−23.7%815,672Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-05Odom Aron M.officerSale1,376 @ $183.00$252K−17.6% of holding−9.7%−23.7%6,457Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-05BUCHANAN MICHAEL RdirectorSale1,000 @ $180.74$181K−45.6% of holding−9.7%−23.7%1,193Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13Odom Aron M.officerSale1,233 @ $166.20$205K−13.6% of holding+5.5%−6.2%7,833Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-24BUCHANAN MICHAEL RdirectorSale2,150 @ $127.70$275K−49.5% of holding+7.1%−0.7%2,193Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

294 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Murray Michael JofficerGift5,000123,968Form 4
2026-08-26Smith BarbaradirectorOption exercise264792Form 4
2026-08-26CROWLEY ELAINE DdirectorOption exercise264792Form 4
2026-08-26CROW M CHADdirectorOption exercise264792Form 4
2026-08-26CROWLEY ELAINE DdirectorOption exercise264817Form 4
2026-08-26CROWLEY ELAINE DdirectorOption exercise264817Form 4
2026-08-26Smith BarbaradirectorOption exercise264817Form 4
2026-08-26CROW M CHADdirectorOption exercise264951Form 4
2026-08-26Smith BarbaradirectorOption exercise264817Form 4
2026-08-26CROW M CHADdirectorOption exercise264951Form 4
2026-04-22Romanowski Paul JdirectorWithheld for tax6,024200,055Form 4
2026-04-22Murray Michael JofficerWithheld for tax4,992128,968Form 4
2026-04-22Auld David VdirectorWithheld for tax4,013942,341Form 4
2026-04-22WHEAT BILL WofficerWithheld for tax3,920336,544Form 4
2026-04-22Romanowski Paul JdirectorAward / grant7,665206,079Form 4
2026-04-22Auld David VdirectorAward / grant5,110946,354Form 4
2026-04-22WHEAT BILL WofficerAward / grant5,110340,464Form 4
2026-04-22Murray Michael JofficerAward / grant6,388133,960Form 4
2026-04-20Auld David VdirectorWithheld for tax1,618941,244Form 4
2026-04-20Murray Michael JofficerWithheld for tax933127,572Form 4
2026-04-20Romanowski Paul JdirectorWithheld for tax933198,414Form 4
2026-04-20WHEAT BILL WofficerWithheld for tax622335,354Form 4
2026-04-20Miller Maribess LdirectorOption exercise139278Form 4
2026-04-20Romanowski Paul JdirectorOption exercise2,3704,740Form 4
2026-04-20WHEAT BILL WofficerOption exercise1,5803,160Form 4
2026-04-20Murray Michael JofficerOption exercise2,3704,740Form 4
2026-04-20ANDERSON BRADLEY SdirectorOption exercise139278Form 4
2026-04-20Auld David VdirectorOption exercise7,0160Form 4
2026-04-20CARSON BENJAMIN SRdirectorOption exercise139278Form 4
2026-04-20CARSON BENJAMIN SRdirectorOption exercise5440Form 4
2026-04-20Murray Michael JofficerOption exercise2,370128,505Form 4
2026-04-20ANDERSON BRADLEY SdirectorOption exercise13936,775Form 4
2026-04-20WHEAT BILL WofficerOption exercise1,580335,976Form 4
2026-04-20Miller Maribess LdirectorOption exercise13922,292Form 4
2026-04-20CARSON BENJAMIN SRdirectorOption exercise6839,752Form 4
2026-04-20CARSON BENJAMIN SRdirectorOption exercise6839,752Form 4
2026-04-20Miller Maribess LdirectorOption exercise13922,292Form 4
2026-04-20Murray Michael JofficerOption exercise2,370128,505Form 4
2026-04-20ANDERSON BRADLEY SdirectorOption exercise13936,775Form 4
2026-04-20Auld David VdirectorOption exercise7,016942,862Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.