DGDollar General CorporationConsumer Defensive · Discount Storesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $123.01 · now $123.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DG has typically landed between $105.03 and $140.62 — a range of −14.6% to +14.3% from the issuance price $123.01.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,213 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-11-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($123.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $123.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$105.03worst · -14.6%$140.62best · +14.3%
  • now $123.01 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $123.05 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $116.31–$129.79
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $105.03–$140.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,213 windows spanning 2009-11-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-08-06−34.8%−34.8%+1.5%
2024-08-05−34.0%−34.0%+1.8%
2023-08-28−33.4%−33.4%+0.7%
3 best
2025-11-19+37.8%+0.0%+37.8%
2025-11-20+37.1%+0.0%+37.1%
2025-11-24+33.2%+0.0%+35.2%

4,213 overlapping windows · 2009-11-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$25.9B
market cap
$7.07
EPS (TTM)
16.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-27
next earnings
Revenue$42.7B
'20'25
Net income$1.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr3.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr17.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.85
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $123.01$95.47$306.22
  • DCF (intrinsic)$291.68
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$172.82
  • Analyst target · range $110.00–$170.00$136.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$123.01

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
41%
−0.6%
n=17
Feb
53%
+0.9%
n=17
Mar
71%
+3.6%
n=17
Apr
76%
+3.6%
n=17
May
53%
+0.0%
n=17
Jun
59%
+3.0%
n=17
Jul
53%
+0.5%
n=17
Aug
41%
−1.8%
n=17
Sep
59%
−0.6%
n=17
Oct
56%
+0.7%
n=16
Nov
63%
+4.0%
n=16
Dec
47%
+1.4%
n=17

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$155$952026-09-03: 1 insider sale, $733K — REARDON KATHLEEN A2025-12-19: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Wheeler Bryan D2025-12-16: 2 insider sales, $1.3M — TAYLOR RHONDA, West Roderick J2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $333K — ELLIOTT ANITA C2025-12-11: 2 insider sales, $3.2M — Wenkoff Carman R, Herrmann Tracey N2025-12-10: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Herrmann Tracey N2025-12-08: 1 insider sale, $558K — REARDON KATHLEEN A2025-12: 8 open-market sales, $8.3M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $733K↑ buys↓ salesofficer REARDON KATHLEEN A — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed same dayofficer Wheeler Bryan D — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed same dayofficer TAYLOR RHONDA — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer West Roderick J — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer ELLIOTT ANITA C — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Wenkoff Carman R — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Herrmann Tracey N — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Herrmann Tracey N — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer REARDON KATHLEEN A — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03REARDON KATHLEEN AofficerSale5,578 @ $131.33$733K−8.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open61,071Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-19Wheeler Bryan DofficerSale9,776 @ $135.32$1.3M−30.5% of holding+4.6%−20.7%22,295Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-16TAYLOR RHONDAofficerSale7,500 @ $134.89$1.0M−9.3% of holding+8.9%−25.8%73,492Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-16West Roderick JofficerSale2,282 @ $133.35$304K−5.9% of holding+8.9%−25.8%36,108Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-12ELLIOTT ANITA CofficerSale2,516 @ $132.52$333K−7.9% of holding+12.2%−24.5%29,344Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11Wenkoff Carman RofficerSale19,166 @ $132.01$2.5M−30.7% of holding+13.5%−21.6%43,179Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11Herrmann Tracey NofficerSale4,850 @ $131.39$637K−15.7% of holding+13.5%−21.6%26,098Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-10Herrmann Tracey NofficerSale12,583 @ $125.07$1.6M−28.9% of holding+17.4%−16.5%30,948Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-08REARDON KATHLEEN AofficerSale4,395 @ $126.97$558K−10.6% of holding+15.2%−17.4%37,251Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-17TAYLOR EMILY CofficerSale1,969 @ $113.00$223K−4.1% of holding−7.7%+5.8%46,563Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12REARDON KATHLEEN AofficerSale3,588 @ $111.56$400K−7.9% of holding−1.6%+5.2%41,646Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-12REARDON KATHLEEN AofficerSale2,850 @ $111.57$318K−6.4% of holding−1.6%+5.2%41,646Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-04TAYLOR EMILY CofficerSale809 @ $94.72$77K−1.6% of holding−8.8%−26.5%48,532Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-31CALBERT MICHAEL MdirectorSale2,000 @ $75.27$151K−100.0% of holding−7.0%+49.1%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-31CALBERT MICHAEL MdirectorSale1,830 @ $75.25$138K−91.5% of holding−7.0%+49.1%170Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-31CALBERT MICHAEL MdirectorSale1,001 @ $75.29$75K−100.0% of holding−7.0%+49.1%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-31CALBERT MICHAEL MdirectorSale751 @ $75.28$57K−42.9% of holding−7.0%+49.1%1,001Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-31CALBERT MICHAEL MdirectorSale248 @ $75.27$19K−12.4% of holding−7.0%+49.1%1,752Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-31CALBERT MICHAEL MdirectorSale130 @ $75.26$10K−76.5% of holding−7.0%+49.1%40Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-31CALBERT MICHAEL MdirectorSale40 @ $75.27$3K−100.0% of holding−7.0%+49.1%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-13TAYLOR EMILY CofficerSale4,740 @ $77.44$367K−23.3% of holding−7.5%+48.5%15,575Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-10REARDON KATHLEEN AofficerSale3,583 @ $82.68$296K−20.2% of holding−9.2%+37.8%14,132Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

99 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-28BRYANT WARREN FdirectorDisposition144,265Form 4
2026-05-28Chadwick Ana MariadirectorDisposition06,910Form 4
2026-05-28McGuire Timothy IdirectorDisposition017,100Form 4
2026-05-28Sandler Debra A.directorDisposition08,622Form 4
2026-05-28SANTANA RALPH EdirectorDisposition08,358Form 4
2026-05-28Scarlett KathleendirectorDisposition05,354Form 4
2026-05-28ROWLAND DAVID PdirectorAward / grant1,6477,848Form 4
2026-05-28Sandler Debra A.directorAward / grant1,6478,622Form 4
2026-05-28Hicks Gregory HdirectorAward / grant1,6471,647Form 4
2026-05-28SANTANA RALPH EdirectorAward / grant1,6478,358Form 4
2026-05-28CALBERT MICHAEL MdirectorAward / grant1,647127,852Form 4
2026-05-28Chadwick Ana MariadirectorAward / grant1,6476,911Form 4
2026-05-28McGuire Timothy IdirectorAward / grant1,64717,100Form 4
2026-05-28Scarlett KathleendirectorAward / grant1,6475,354Form 4
2026-04-01TAYLOR RHONDAofficerWithheld for tax8,928105,302Form 4
2026-04-01TAYLOR EMILY CofficerWithheld for tax8,92886,296Form 4
2026-04-01Wenkoff Carman RofficerWithheld for tax8,87075,047Form 4
2026-04-01West Roderick JofficerWithheld for tax8,01767,838Form 4
2026-04-01REARDON KATHLEEN AofficerWithheld for tax7,93866,649Form 4
2026-04-01Herrmann Tracey NofficerWithheld for tax4,51945,303Form 4
2026-04-01ELLIOTT ANITA CofficerWithheld for tax1,30334,968Form 4
2026-04-01Wheeler Bryan DofficerWithheld for tax90229,139Form 4
2026-03-26Wheeler Bryan DofficerAward / grant5,70430,041Form 4
2026-03-26Herrmann Tracey NofficerAward / grant6,71049,822Form 4
2026-03-26Lau Donny HofficerAward / grant10,06549,874Form 4
2026-03-26ELLIOTT ANITA CofficerAward / grant3,52336,271Form 4
2026-03-26TAYLOR EMILY CofficerAward / grant12,58195,224Form 4
2026-03-26TAYLOR RHONDAofficerAward / grant6,710114,230Form 4
2026-03-26Wenkoff Carman RofficerAward / grant6,71083,917Form 4
2026-03-26West Roderick JofficerAward / grant8,38875,855Form 4
2026-03-26REARDON KATHLEEN AofficerAward / grant6,71074,587Form 4
2026-03-26VASOS TODD JdirectorAward / grant40,260177,123Form 4
2026-03-11West Roderick JofficerWithheld for tax1,85867,467Form 4
2026-03-11West Roderick JofficerOption exercise2,69169,325Form 4
2026-03-11West Roderick JofficerOption exercise2,6910Form 4
2026-03-10TAYLOR EMILY CofficerAward / grant34,02882,643Form 4
2026-03-10ELLIOTT ANITA CofficerAward / grant3,40432,748Form 4
2026-03-10Herrmann Tracey NofficerAward / grant17,01443,112Form 4
2026-03-10TAYLOR RHONDAofficerAward / grant34,028107,520Form 4
2026-03-10REARDON KATHLEEN AofficerAward / grant30,62667,877Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2026-01-152025-12-11$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-09$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2025-05-162025-04-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-04-112025-03-05$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Greg LandsmanHousesale2025-04-082025-03-27$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-03-272025-02-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.