DFTXDefinium Therapeutics, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $36.17 · now $36.17 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, DFTX has typically landed between $26.40 and $51.10 — a range of −27.0% to +41.3% from the issuance price $36.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,447 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-11-15 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($36.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DFTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $36.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$26.4worst · -27.0%$51.1best · +41.3%
  • now $36.17 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.17 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $31.13–$41.21
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $26.4–$51.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,447 windows spanning 2016-11-15 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2019-11-15−97.9%−97.9%+20.8%
2019-11-18−97.9%−97.9%+20.8%
2019-11-21−97.9%−97.9%+20.8%
3 best
2019-12-19+5500.0%+0.0%+5500.0%
2019-12-18+5500.0%+0.0%+5500.0%
2019-12-26+4900.0%+0.0%+5500.0%

2,447 overlapping windows · 2016-11-15 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase 2A Trial of DT402 for Autism Spectrum Disorder (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • September 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase 3 Trial of DT120 for Major Depressive Disorder (Ascend) (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+6.4%
n=10
Feb
70%
+10.0%
n=10
Mar
50%
+104.3%
n=10
Apr
60%
+2.0%
n=10
May
30%
−3.5%
n=10
Jun
50%
+0.5%
n=10
Jul
40%
−2.5%
n=10
Aug
40%
+34.6%
n=10
Sep
30%
−4.7%
n=10
Oct
67%
+6.5%
n=9
Nov
33%
+5.9%
n=9
Dec
60%
+10.6%
n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$48$92026-09-03: 1 insider sale, $722K — Barrow Robert2026-06-25: 5 insider sales, $2.6M — Barrow Robert, Sullivan Mark, Karlin Daniel, Roberts Brandi …2026-03-25: 3 insider sales, $797K — Barrow Robert, Sullivan Mark, Karlin Daniel2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $797K2026-06: 5 open-market sales, $2.6M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $722K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Barrow Robert — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Barrow Robert — Sale on 2026-06-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sullivan Mark — Sale on 2026-06-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Karlin Daniel — Sale on 2026-06-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Roberts Brandi — Sale on 2026-06-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Wiley Matthew T. — Sale on 2026-06-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Barrow Robert — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sullivan Mark — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Karlin Daniel — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Barrow RobertdirectorSale19,023 @ $37.94$722K−1.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,494,640Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-25Barrow RobertdirectorSale29,208 @ $45.03$1.3M−2.6% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open1,098,246Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-25Sullivan MarkofficerSale13,008 @ $45.03$586K−3.9% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open320,571Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-25Karlin DanielofficerSale10,035 @ $45.03$452K−2.0% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open503,282Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-25Roberts BrandidirectorSale3,013 @ $45.03$136K−1.4% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open209,487Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-25Wiley Matthew T.officerSale2,867 @ $45.03$129K−1.6% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open174,633Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-25Barrow RobertdirectorSale24,431 @ $18.47$451K−3.1% of holding+13.0%+81.8%752,454Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-25Sullivan MarkofficerSale10,702 @ $18.47$198K−3.8% of holding+13.0%+81.8%271,079Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-25Karlin DanielofficerSale8,018 @ $18.47$148K−1.9% of holding+13.0%+81.8%413,317Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

38 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-18Krebs AndreasdirectorOption exercise1,62921,402Form 4
2026-09-18Vallone Carol AdirectorOption exercise1,08622,296Form 4
2026-09-18Vallone Carol AdirectorOption exercise1,0860Form 4
2026-09-18Krebs AndreasdirectorOption exercise1,6290Form 4
2026-09-14Wiley Matthew T.officerAward / grant125,000362,133Form 4
2026-09-14Karlin DanielofficerAward / grant200,000803,699Form 4
2026-09-14Roberts BrandidirectorAward / grant125,000397,905Form 4
2026-09-14Barrow RobertdirectorAward / grant750,0002,244,640Form 4
2026-09-14Sullivan MarkofficerAward / grant125,000508,279Form 4
2026-09-02Barrow RobertdirectorAward / grant40,0001,513,663Form 4
2026-08-12Karlin DanielofficerAward / grant100,000603,282Form 4
2026-08-12Sullivan MarkofficerAward / grant62,500383,071Form 4
2026-08-12Wiley Matthew T.officerAward / grant62,500237,133Form 4
2026-08-12Roberts BrandidirectorAward / grant62,500271,987Form 4
2026-08-12Barrow RobertdirectorAward / grant375,0001,473,246Form 4
2026-06-22Barrow RobertdirectorAward / grant375,0001,127,454Form 4
2026-06-22Karlin DanielofficerAward / grant100,000513,317Form 4
2026-06-22Sullivan MarkofficerAward / grant62,500333,579Form 4
2026-06-22Roberts BrandidirectorAward / grant62,500212,500Form 4
2026-06-22Wiley Matthew T.officerAward / grant62,500177,500Form 4
2026-06-11Adsett RogerdirectorAward / grant3,5553,555Form 4
2026-06-11Vallone Carol AdirectorAward / grant4,66621,210Form 4
2026-06-11Krebs AndreasdirectorAward / grant19,18819,188Form 4
2026-06-11Krebs AndreasdirectorAward / grant4,66619,773Form 4
2026-06-11CRYSTAL ROGERdirectorAward / grant19,18819,188Form 4
2026-06-11CRYSTAL ROGERdirectorAward / grant4,66624,289Form 4
2026-06-11Bruhn Suzanne LouisedirectorAward / grant19,18819,188Form 4
2026-06-11Bruhn Suzanne LouisedirectorAward / grant4,66624,289Form 4
2026-06-11Adsett RogerdirectorAward / grant14,62014,620Form 4
2026-06-11GRYSKA DAVID WdirectorAward / grant19,18819,188Form 4
2026-06-11GRYSKA DAVID WdirectorAward / grant4,66619,900Form 4
2026-06-11Vallone Carol AdirectorAward / grant19,18819,188Form 4
2026-02-03Barrow RobertdirectorAward / grant320,0001,098,477Form 4
2026-02-03Karlin DanielofficerAward / grant150,000575,025Form 4
2026-02-03Sullivan MarkofficerAward / grant125,000407,576Form 4
2026-02-03Wiley Matthew T.officerAward / grant115,000115,000Form 4
2026-02-03Roberts BrandidirectorAward / grant150,000150,000Form 4
2026-01-29Adsett RogerdirectorAward / grant50,00050,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.