Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.01 · now $12.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DFH has typically landed between $9.47 and $15.06 — a range of −21.2% to +25.4% from the issuance price $12.01.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,399 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-01-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DFH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.01 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.97 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.76–$13.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.47–$15.06
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,399 windows spanning 2021-01-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-05-20 | −40.5% | −40.5% | +5.0% |
| 2022-05-27 | −40.0% | −42.8% | +0.8% |
| 2022-05-31 | −39.8% | −43.1% | +0.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-28 | +50.2% | +0.0% | +50.8% |
| 2023-05-19 | +49.4% | −2.8% | +49.4% |
| 2022-12-30 | +48.0% | +0.0% | +48.0% |
1,399 overlapping windows · 2021-01-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
+8.2%
n=5
Feb
67%
+4.2%
n=6
Mar
50%
−3.2%
n=6
Apr
83%
+1.3%
n=6
May
67%
+4.5%
n=6
Jun
50%
−1.2%
n=6
Jul
67%
+2.9%
n=6
Aug
67%
+3.9%
n=6
Sep
17%
−11.1%
n=6
Oct
20%
−11.3%
n=5
Nov
60%
+5.8%
n=5
Dec
40%
+1.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | BECKWITT RICHARD | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $12.07 | $121K | +11.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Sturm Len | director | Purchase | 1,500 @ $13.47 | $20K | +5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,728 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Sturm Len | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $14.72 | $15K | +3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,228 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Sturm Len | director | Purchase | 250 @ $14.75 | $4K | +0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,228 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Sturm Len | director | Purchase | 250 @ $14.81 | $4K | +0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,978 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | BECKWITT RICHARD | director | Purchase | 12,000 @ $14.80 | $178K | +15.4% of holding | −12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | BECKWITT RICHARD | director | Purchase | 8,000 @ $13.83 | $111K | +11.4% of holding | −13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | BECKWITT RICHARD | director | Purchase | 70,000 @ $13.95 | $977K | ownership Δ n/a | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 54,140 @ $16.70 | $904K | −1.7% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,190,883 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 2,450 @ $16.00 | $39K | −0.1% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,245,023 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 21,962 @ $15.00 | $329K | −0.7% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,247,473 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 85,057 @ $15.52 | $1.3M | −2.5% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,269,435 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 45,544 @ $15.21 | $693K | −1.3% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,354,492 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 50,266 @ $14.99 | $753K | −1.5% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,400,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 53,325 @ $15.16 | $808K | −1.5% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,450,302 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 76,428 @ $15.17 | $1.2M | −2.1% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,503,627 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 60,828 @ $14.56 | $886K | −1.7% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,580,055 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 32,146 @ $12.89 | $414K | −0.9% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,640,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 117,854 @ $12.65 | $1.5M | −3.1% of holding | +22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,673,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 30,217 @ $19.60 | $592K | −0.8% of holding | +4.5% | −25.5% | 3,790,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 41,525 @ $19.44 | $807K | −1.1% of holding | +3.0% | −34.3% | 3,821,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $23.25 | $581K | −0.6% of holding | −14.5% | −43.4% | 3,862,625 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $23.55 | $589K | −0.6% of holding | −18.0% | −42.0% | 3,887,625 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 8,258 @ $23.17 | $191K | −0.2% of holding | −18.9% | −37.3% | 3,912,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $23.52 | $470K | −0.5% of holding | −20.2% | −40.6% | 3,920,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $24.24 | $606K | −0.6% of holding | −21.4% | −45.8% | 3,940,883 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 36,119 @ $23.85 | $861K | −0.9% of holding | −22.4% | −50.4% | 3,979,764 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 13,881 @ $24.12 | $335K | −0.3% of holding | −22.4% | −50.4% | 3,965,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $23.02 | $576K | −0.6% of holding | −22.1% | −48.4% | 4,015,883 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 6,794 @ $25.93 | $176K | −0.4% of holding | −25.9% | −43.3% | 1,891,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 7,443 @ $26.04 | $194K | −0.4% of holding | −25.5% | −45.0% | 1,898,466 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 11,143 @ $28.27 | $315K | −0.6% of holding | −16.6% | −50.7% | 1,905,909 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 10,720 @ $28.54 | $306K | −0.6% of holding | −16.5% | −49.3% | 1,917,052 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 41,940 @ $30.78 | $1.3M | −1.0% of holding | −21.2% | −54.6% | 4,040,883 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 38,060 @ $29.99 | $1.1M | −0.9% of holding | −21.2% | −54.6% | 4,082,823 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $28.97 | $579K | −0.5% of holding | −11.3% | −47.0% | 4,120,883 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 11,564 @ $28.86 | $334K | −0.6% of holding | −11.3% | −47.0% | 1,927,775 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 3 @ $29.19 | $88 | −0.0% of holding | −11.3% | −47.0% | 1,927,772 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 6,628 @ $27.70 | $184K | −0.3% of holding | −10.5% | −44.5% | 1,940,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 931 @ $28.25 | $26K | −0.0% of holding | −10.5% | −44.5% | 1,939,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 5,259 @ $28.09 | $148K | −0.3% of holding | −9.5% | −42.4% | 1,946,898 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 5,686 @ $28.74 | $163K | −0.3% of holding | −11.7% | −42.9% | 1,952,157 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 5,913 @ $27.85 | $165K | −0.3% of holding | −2.8% | −36.8% | 1,960,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 2,722 @ $27.08 | $74K | −0.1% of holding | −2.8% | −36.8% | 1,965,973 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 2,217 @ $28.59 | $63K | −0.1% of holding | −2.8% | −36.8% | 1,957,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 9,980 @ $25.62 | $256K | −0.5% of holding | +13.7% | −29.0% | 1,968,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 28,172 @ $27.95 | $787K | −0.7% of holding | +6.9% | −38.9% | 4,162,787 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 21,904 @ $26.98 | $591K | −0.5% of holding | +6.9% | −38.9% | 4,140,883 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 8,021 @ $26.99 | $216K | −0.4% of holding | +6.9% | −38.9% | 1,981,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 2,395 @ $27.84 | $67K | −0.1% of holding | +6.9% | −38.9% | 1,978,675 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 10,288 @ $28.46 | $293K | −0.5% of holding | −3.8% | −41.4% | 1,989,219 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 128 @ $29.05 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −3.8% | −41.4% | 1,989,091 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 44,992 @ $28.17 | $1.3M | −1.1% of holding | −4.0% | −40.7% | 4,190,959 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-18 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 6,512 @ $26.23 | $171K | −0.2% of holding | +7.6% | −34.0% | 4,235,951 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 22,889 @ $27.13 | $621K | −0.5% of holding | +0.8% | −36.0% | 4,242,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 25,607 @ $26.80 | $686K | −0.6% of holding | +0.8% | −38.3% | 4,265,352 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 9,964 @ $27.39 | $273K | −0.5% of holding | −9.6% | −50.3% | 2,000,230 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 723 @ $27.82 | $20K | −0.0% of holding | −9.6% | −50.3% | 1,999,507 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Sale | 10,161 @ $26.19 | $266K | −0.5% of holding | −4.4% | −45.5% | 2,010,194 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $26.17 | $1.3M | −1.2% of holding | −3.2% | −44.3% | 4,290,959 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
37 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Ramsay Lorena Anabel | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,305 | 230,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Withheld for tax | 48,348 | 2,092,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Ramsay Lorena Anabel | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,380 | 232,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Withheld for tax | 17,424 | 2,141,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Ramsay Lorena Anabel | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,717 | 240,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Weatherford William | director | Award / grant | 12,675 | 30,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Parekh Megha H. | director | Award / grant | 7,760 | 32,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Sturm Len | director | Award / grant | 7,760 | 27,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Udelhofen Justin | director | Award / grant | 7,760 | 42,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Ramsay Lorena Anabel | officer | Award / grant | 41,387 | 218,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Ramsay Lorena Anabel | officer | Award / grant | 25,867 | 244,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Award / grant | 287,119 | 2,158,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Withheld for tax | 26,000 | 1,871,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Ramsay Lorena Anabel | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,044 | 177,327 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Weatherford William | director | Award / grant | 218 | 18,037 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Withheld for tax | 13,927 | 2,020,355 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Ramsay Lorena Anabel | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,842 | 180,371 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-08 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Withheld for tax | 48,348 | 2,075,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-08 | Ramsay Lorena Anabel | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,185 | 185,242 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Withheld for tax | 12,694 | 2,123,448 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Ramsay Lorena Anabel | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,379 | 190,427 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Lovett William Radford II | director | Award / grant | 4,665 | 22,349 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Weatherford William | director | Award / grant | 6,903 | 17,819 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Award / grant | 198,228 | 2,136,142 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Udelhofen Justin | director | Award / grant | 4,665 | 35,041 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Ramsay Lorena Anabel | officer | Award / grant | 18,657 | 174,149 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Ramsay Lorena Anabel | officer | Award / grant | 18,657 | 192,806 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Parekh Megha H. | director | Award / grant | 4,665 | 24,349 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Sturm Len | director | Award / grant | 4,665 | 19,968 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-03 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 2,021,244 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-03 | Zalupski Patrick O. | director | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 56,320,586 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.