DFDV · TickerCove

DFDVDeFi Development Corp.Technology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.54 · now $4.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DFDV has typically landed between $2.52 and $9.01 — a range of −44.6% to +98.4% from the issuance price $4.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

766 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-07-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.54 · 13% of range

$2.47 low$18.51 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−3.7%

typical move · IQR 36.5%

−44.6%worst (p90)+98.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where DFDV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.54 (+0.0%)
typical $4.37 (-3.7%)
middle 50% $3.54–$5.2
90% range $2.52–$9.01

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 766 windows spanning 2023-07-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-07-25	−66.8%	−67.7%	+0.0%
2023-07-26	−61.7%	−62.5%	+0.0%
2026-01-06	−58.7%	−58.7%	+12.0%
3 best
2025-03-27	+1522.7%	−12.9%	+1522.7%
2025-03-13	+1491.5%	−14.5%	+1491.5%
2025-03-31	+1486.2%	−20.0%	+1545.0%

766 overlapping windows · 2023-07-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+12.3%

n=3

Feb

−22.4%

n=3

Mar

33%

+8.1%

n=3

Apr

67%

+470.0%

n=3

May

33%

+15.8%

n=3

Jun

33%

−7.9%

n=3

Jul

−18.2%

n=3

Aug

50%

+12.6%

n=4

Sep

25%

+2.2%

n=4

Oct

−24.0%

n=3

Nov

33%

−1.0%

n=3

Dec

33%

−8.1%

n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-21	White Parker	officer	Purchase	5,069 @ $3.93	$20K	+1.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	274,944	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-21	White Parker	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $3.88	$19K	+1.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	279,944	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-20	Kang Daniel	officer	Purchase	11,000 @ $3.88	$43K	+153.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	18,181	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14	Kang Daniel	officer	Purchase	13,000 @ $2.91	$38K	ownership Δ n/a	+53.6%	not yet — horizon still open	13,000	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-10	White Parker	officer	Purchase	17,760 @ $5.76	$102K	+7.0% of holding	+21.2%	−55.3%	269,875	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25	White Parker	officer	Purchase	7,041 @ $6.90	$49K	+2.9% of holding	−20.3%	−57.1%	249,112	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25	Kang Daniel	officer	Purchase	4,200 @ $6.90	$29K	+140.9% of holding	−20.3%	−57.1%	7,181	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25	White Parker	officer	Purchase	3,003 @ $6.94	$21K	+1.2% of holding	−20.3%	−57.1%	252,115	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

57 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-17	Han Fei	officer	Withheld for tax	2,803	357,632	Form 4
2026-07-17	Han Fei	officer	Withheld for tax	2,803	360,435	Form 4
2026-06-17	Han Fei	officer	Withheld for tax	2,803	363,238	Form 4
2026-05-17	Han Fei	officer	Withheld for tax	2,802	366,041	Form 4
2026-04-17	Han Fei	officer	Withheld for tax	2,862	368,843	Form 4
2026-04-04	Townsend Adam R.	director	Award / grant	28,170	28,170	Form 4
2026-04-01	JANOVER BLAKE	director	Withheld for tax	17,045	61,236	Form 4
2026-04-01	JANOVER BLAKE	director	Option exercise	70,000	78,281	Form 4
2026-04-01	JANOVER BLAKE	director	Option exercise	70,000	0	Form 4
2026-03-31	Han Fei	officer	Award / grant	13,568	13,568	Form 4
2026-03-31	Onorati Joseph Mario	director	Award / grant	22,639	22,639	Form 4
2026-03-31	Perfumo Thomas J.	director	Award / grant	700	700	Form 4
2026-03-31	White Parker	officer	Award / grant	14,393	14,393	Form 4
2026-03-31	Caragol William J	director	Award / grant	16,795	16,795	Form 4
2026-03-31	Kang Daniel	officer	Award / grant	11,655	11,655	Form 4
2026-03-31	Tai Zachary Aris	director	Award / grant	656	656	Form 4
2026-03-31	JANOVER BLAKE	director	Award / grant	6,562	6,562	Form 4
2026-03-17	Han Fei	officer	Withheld for tax	3,217	371,705	Form 4
2026-02-17	Onorati Joseph Mario	director	Award / grant	828,236	828,236	Form 4
2026-02-17	Caragol William J	director	Award / grant	2,000	54,500	Form 4
2026-02-17	Tai Zachary Aris	director	Award / grant	5,000	14,500	Form 4
2026-02-17	Han Fei	officer	Award / grant	374,922	374,922	Form 4
2026-02-17	White Parker	officer	Award / grant	524,410	524,410	Form 4
2026-02-17	Kang Daniel	officer	Award / grant	265,256	265,256	Form 4
2026-02-17	Perfumo Thomas J.	director	Award / grant	7,000	14,000	Form 4
2026-01-27	Stern Hadley R.	director	Award / grant	16,500	16,500	Form 4
2025-12-17	Kang Daniel	officer	Award / grant	182,616	182,616	Form 4
2025-12-17	Han Fei	officer	Award / grant	226,703	226,703	Form 4
2025-12-17	White Parker	officer	Award / grant	136,687	136,687	Form 4
2025-12-17	Onorati Joseph Mario	director	Award / grant	214,659	214,659	Form 4
2025-12-02	Onorati Joseph Mario	director	Gift	221,613	0	Form 4
2025-11-21	Onorati Joseph Mario	director	Other acquisition	271,043	271,043	Form 4
2025-11-21	White Parker	officer	Other acquisition	271,043	333,841	Form 4
2025-11-21	Kang Daniel	officer	Other acquisition	4,983	4,983	Form 4
2025-11-21	Onorati Joseph Mario	director	Other acquisition	27,104	27,104	Form 4
2025-11-21	Kang Daniel	officer	Other acquisition	2,981	46,852	Form 4
2025-11-21	Kang Daniel	officer	Other acquisition	2,981	2,981	Form 4
2025-11-21	White Parker	officer	Other acquisition	220,397	220,397	Form 4
2025-11-21	White Parker	officer	Other acquisition	288,428	0	Form 4
2025-11-21	White Parker	officer	Other acquisition	27,104	33,384	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i