DECKDeckers Outdoor CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Apparel - Footwear & Accessoriesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $77.96 · now $77.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DECK has typically landed between $64.19 and $93.43 — a range of −17.7% to +19.8% from the issuance price $77.96.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($77.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DECK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $77.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$64.19worst · -17.7%$93.43best · +19.8%
  • now $77.96 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $78.87 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $72.29–$85.45
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $64.19–$93.43
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−54.7%−54.7%+0.0%
2020-02-19−48.4%−54.7%+0.0%
2008-10-21−48.3%−48.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+59.8%+0.0%+63.3%
2008-11-20+57.5%+0.0%+62.3%
2008-11-19+57.5%+0.0%+62.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$13.3B
market cap
$7.04
EPS (TTM)
13.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$5.5B
'21'26
Net income$1.0B
'21'26
Free cash flow$1.1B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr18.8%
'21'26
ROE · by yr41.0%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr0.15
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $77.96$70.78$174.88
  • DCF (intrinsic)$166.83
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$167.70
  • Analyst target · range $85.00–$145.00$121.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$77.96

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
−1.9%
n=18
Feb
47%
+1.7%
n=19
Mar
47%
+1.7%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.5%
n=19
May
53%
+5.0%
n=19
Jun
47%
+1.8%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.0%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.0%
n=19
Sep
37%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.6%
n=18
Nov
83%
+8.3%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$124$782026-02-13: 3 insider sales, $1.0M — Shanahan Lauri M, Spangenberg Anne, Spring-Green Robin2025-10-31: 2 insider sales, $119K — Ogbechie Angela …2025-09-08: 3 insider sales, $35K — Ibrahim Maha Saleh …2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $35K2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $119K2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $1.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Shanahan Lauri M — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Spangenberg Anne — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed same dayofficer Spring-Green Robin — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed same dayofficer Ogbechie Angela — Sale on 2025-10-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Ogbechie Angela — Sale on 2025-10-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Ibrahim Maha Saleh — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ibrahim Maha Saleh — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ibrahim Maha Saleh — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-13Shanahan Lauri MdirectorSale4,682 @ $114.84$538K−15.8% of holding−7.9%−36.1%25,026Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Spangenberg AnneofficerSale4,063 @ $116.02$471K−4.8% of holding−7.9%−36.1%80,449Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-13Spring-Green RobinofficerSale347 @ $113.78$39K−0.8% of holding−7.9%−36.1%42,461Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-31Ogbechie AngelaofficerSale956 @ $81.68$78K−2.7% of holding+12.7%+14.2%34,020Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-31Ogbechie AngelaofficerSale504 @ $81.00$41K−1.4% of holding+12.7%+14.2%34,976Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-08Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale168 @ $118.20$20K−1.5% of holding−19.8%−15.1%11,035Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale76 @ $116.91$9K−0.7% of holding−19.8%−15.1%11,203Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale56 @ $118.96$7K−0.5% of holding−19.8%−15.1%10,979Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06Davis Cindy LdirectorPurchase1,825 @ $109.76$200K+15.8% of holding−8.4%−23.8%13,340Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-06Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale276 @ $109.02$30K−2.5% of holding−8.4%−23.8%10,705Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-06Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale24 @ $109.72$3K−0.2% of holding−8.4%−23.8%10,681Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-02Ogbechie AngelaofficerSale4,962 @ $103.76$515K−18.9% of holding−3.8%−27.8%21,262Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02Ogbechie AngelaofficerSale940 @ $104.57$98K−4.4% of holding−3.8%−27.8%20,322Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02Ogbechie AngelaofficerSale234 @ $103.63$24K−1.2% of holding−3.8%−27.8%20,088Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02Ogbechie AngelaofficerSale108 @ $104.38$11K−0.5% of holding−3.8%−27.8%19,980Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-06Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale130 @ $133.77$17K−1.2% of holding−8.1%−22.4%10,519Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale71 @ $136.14$10K−0.7% of holding−8.1%−22.4%10,403Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale45 @ $135.03$6K−0.4% of holding−8.1%−22.4%10,474Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale39 @ $132.23$5K−0.4% of holding−8.1%−22.4%10,649Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale15 @ $136.98$2K−0.1% of holding−8.1%−22.4%10,388Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28Powers DaviddirectorSale14,776 @ $139.38$2.1M−5.8% of holding−14.2%−23.4%241,777Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-28Powers DaviddirectorSale5,400 @ $137.66$743K−2.0% of holding−14.2%−23.4%261,377Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-28Powers DaviddirectorSale4,824 @ $138.50$668K−1.8% of holding−14.2%−23.4%256,553Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-11Stefano CarotidirectorSale14,274 @ $208.34$3.0M−5.2% of holding+4.4%−49.3%259,266Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-06Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale154 @ $200.87$31K−1.5% of holding+6.7%−45.5%10,280Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-06Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale88 @ $199.99$18K−0.8% of holding+6.7%−45.5%10,434Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-06Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorSale58 @ $201.83$12K−0.6% of holding+6.7%−45.5%10,222Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

131 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Grismer Patrick JdirectorAward / grant5352,033Form 4
2026-09-01Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorAward / grant81613,870Form 4
2026-09-01Luis VictordirectorAward / grant91420,043Form 4
2026-09-01Stewart Bonita C.directorAward / grant53543,638Form 4
2026-09-01Shanahan Lauri MdirectorAward / grant53526,368Form 4
2026-09-01Davis Cindy LdirectorAward / grant53515,577Form 4
2026-09-01Chan NelsondirectorAward / grant53563,846Form 4
2026-09-01Burwick David AdirectorAward / grant53514,615Form 4
2026-09-01Figuereo Juan RdirectorAward / grant53514,640Form 4
2026-08-17Ogbechie AngelaofficerAward / grant5,54835,341Form 4
2026-08-17Ellerker MarcoofficerAward / grant16,16260,816Form 4
2026-08-17Ellerker MarcoofficerAward / grant5,54844,654Form 4
2026-08-17Spring-Green RobinofficerAward / grant21,33667,471Form 4
2026-08-17Spring-Green RobinofficerAward / grant7,32446,135Form 4
2026-08-17Spangenberg AnneofficerAward / grant25,862104,512Form 4
2026-08-17Spangenberg AnneofficerAward / grant8,87878,650Form 4
2026-08-17Garcia ThomasofficerAward / grant19,39696,646Form 4
2026-08-17Garcia ThomasofficerAward / grant6,65877,250Form 4
2026-08-17Stefano CarotidirectorAward / grant109,912460,949Form 4
2026-08-17Fasching Steven J.directorAward / grant29,740180,793Form 4
2026-08-17Fasching Steven J.directorAward / grant10,209151,053Form 4
2026-08-17Stefano CarotidirectorAward / grant37,731351,037Form 4
2026-08-17Ogbechie AngelaofficerAward / grant16,16251,503Form 4
2026-08-15Ellerker MarcoofficerWithheld for tax1,23139,106Form 4
2026-08-15Fasching Steven J.directorWithheld for tax3,874140,844Form 4
2026-08-15Stefano CarotidirectorWithheld for tax8,628313,306Form 4
2026-08-15Garcia ThomasofficerWithheld for tax2,36070,592Form 4
2026-08-15Ogbechie AngelaofficerWithheld for tax1,62329,793Form 4
2026-08-15Spangenberg AnneofficerWithheld for tax3,18169,772Form 4
2026-08-15Spring-Green RobinofficerWithheld for tax1,45038,811Form 4
2026-06-01Stewart Bonita C.directorAward / grant44843,103Form 4
2026-06-01Figuereo Juan RdirectorAward / grant44814,105Form 4
2026-06-01Luis VictordirectorAward / grant76619,129Form 4
2026-06-01Ibrahim Maha SalehdirectorAward / grant68313,054Form 4
2026-06-01Grismer Patrick JdirectorAward / grant4481,498Form 4
2026-06-01Burwick David AdirectorAward / grant44814,080Form 4
2026-06-01Chan NelsondirectorAward / grant44863,311Form 4
2026-06-01Davis Cindy LdirectorAward / grant44815,042Form 4
2026-06-01Shanahan Lauri MdirectorAward / grant44825,833Form 4
2026-05-20Garcia ThomasofficerWithheld for tax4,58172,952Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-26$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-21$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.