Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.29 · now $23.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DEA has typically landed between $20.54 and $25.62 — a range of −11.8% to +10.0% from the issuance price $23.29.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,898 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-02-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DEA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.29 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.34 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.32–$24.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $20.54–$25.62
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-20 | −24.5% | −24.5% | +0.1% |
| 2025-03-28 | −24.3% | −24.4% | +0.3% |
| 2025-03-31 | −23.9% | −24.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-16 | +39.6% | +0.0% | +51.5% |
| 2020-03-11 | +28.4% | −15.2% | +28.4% |
| 2020-03-12 | +27.2% | −10.2% | +36.0% |
2,898 overlapping windows · 2015-02-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-23 | Crate Darrell W | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $10.91 | $109K | +6.2% of holding | +5.8% | −19.6% | 171,479 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-27 | Fisher Cynthia A | director | Purchase | 434 @ $12.52 | $5K | +2.1% of holding | −8.0% | −26.8% | 20,943 | Form 4 · filed 132 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-27 | Fisher Cynthia A | director | Purchase | 195 @ $12.52 | $2K | +2.1% of holding | −8.0% | −26.8% | 9,393 | Form 4 · filed 132 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Colantuoni Brian M | officer | Award / grant | 2,786 | 2,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | BINNIE WILLIAM H | director | Award / grant | 5,983 | 5,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Freeman Scott D. | director | Award / grant | 5,265 | 24,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Fisher Cynthia A | director | Award / grant | 5,265 | 52,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | HENRY EMIL W JR | director | Award / grant | 5,265 | 34,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Innes Tara S. | director | Award / grant | 5,265 | 15,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Crate Darrell W | director | Conversion | 18,388 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Crate Darrell W | director | Conversion | 31,488 | 300,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Crate Darrell W | director | Conversion | 13,100 | 245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Crate Darrell W | director | Award / grant | 245 | 13,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Marino Allison E. | officer | Award / grant | 40 | 2,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Ibe Michael P. | director | Award / grant | 245 | 13,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Logan Franklin V. | officer | Award / grant | 19 | 1,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Crate Darrell W | director | Award / grant | 13,100 | 13,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Logan Franklin V. | officer | Award / grant | 1,120 | 1,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Ibe Michael P. | director | Award / grant | 13,100 | 13,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Marino Allison E. | officer | Award / grant | 2,071 | 2,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Colantuoni Brian M | officer | Award / grant | 9,737 | 9,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Logan Franklin V. | officer | Award / grant | 8,519 | 8,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Logan Franklin V. | officer | Award / grant | 6,724 | 6,724 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Marino Allison E. | officer | Award / grant | 21,908 | 21,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Marino Allison E. | officer | Award / grant | 20,172 | 20,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Ibe Michael P. | director | Award / grant | 19,474 | 19,474 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Ibe Michael P. | director | Award / grant | 48,749 | 48,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Crate Darrell W | director | Award / grant | 48,685 | 48,685 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Crate Darrell W | director | Award / grant | 109,265 | 109,265 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Fisher Cynthia A | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Marino Allison E. | officer | Award / grant | 70,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | BINNIE WILLIAM H | director | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Freeman Scott D. | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Logan Franklin V. | officer | Award / grant | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | HENRY EMIL W JR | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Innes Tara S. | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Ibe Michael P. | director | Award / grant | 160,000 | 160,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Crate Darrell W | director | Award / grant | 425,000 | 425,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | HENRY EMIL W JR | director | Award / grant | 5,499 | 28,755 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Innes Tara S. | director | Award / grant | 1,747 | 1,747 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | BINNIE WILLIAM H | director | Award / grant | 5,499 | 19,207 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Innes Tara S. | director | Award / grant | 3,959 | 10,095 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Freeman Scott D. | director | Award / grant | 5,499 | 18,845 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.