Issued 2026-09-16 at $669.47 · now $669.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DE has typically landed between $600.43 and $763.76 — a range of −10.3% to +14.1% from the issuance price $669.47.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($669.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $669.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $669.47 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $670.11 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $636.35–$703.88
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $600.43–$763.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-25 | −47.2% | −47.2% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −46.0% | −46.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −45.0% | −45.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +48.4% | +0.0% | +48.4% |
| 2009-03-06 | +46.0% | +0.0% | +47.3% |
| 2008-12-04 | +44.9% | +0.0% | +44.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$169.6B
market cap
$17.65
EPS (TTM)
35.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-20
next earnings
Revenue$44.7B
'20'25
Net income$5.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr11.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr19.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.46
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$201.53
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$541.03
- Analyst target · range $500.00–$812.00$707.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$669.47
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+3.1%
n=18
Feb
42%
+0.9%
n=19
Mar
37%
+1.6%
n=19
Apr
68%
+1.6%
n=19
May
32%
−1.9%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.9%
n=19
Jul
53%
+2.4%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.6%
n=19
Oct
78%
+2.5%
n=18
Nov
72%
+5.3%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.5%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 2,929 @ $650.18 | $1.9M | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,123 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 975 @ $651.43 | $635K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,148 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 391 @ $654.22 | $256K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 363 @ $652.75 | $237K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,785 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 199 @ $655.91 | $131K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,195 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 3 @ $656.64 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,192 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 2,654 @ $650.40 | $1.7M | −7.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,377 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 1,560 @ $655.45 | $1.0M | −5.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,684 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 1,280 @ $654.45 | $838K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,244 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 528 @ $657.43 | $347K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 508 @ $659.87 | $335K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,192 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 373 @ $651.31 | $243K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,004 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 360 @ $653.78 | $235K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,524 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 336 @ $656.33 | $221K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 120 @ $658.64 | $79K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 120 @ $652.60 | $78K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 11,546 @ $650.31 | $7.5M | −22.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 38,906 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 6,696 @ $651.47 | $4.4M | −17.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,210 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 2,637 @ $652.30 | $1.7M | −8.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,573 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 2,341 @ $653.30 | $1.5M | −7.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,232 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Sale | 40 @ $654.05 | $26K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,192 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Reed Cory J | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $510.00 | $6.1M | −36.6% of holding | +19.0% | +9.0% | 20,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | May John C II | director | Sale | 15,504 @ $500.46 | $7.8M | −9.7% of holding | +16.3% | +8.4% | 143,938 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | May John C II | director | Sale | 12,456 @ $501.31 | $6.2M | −8.7% of holding | +16.3% | +8.4% | 131,482 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | May John C II | director | Sale | 8,216 @ $502.49 | $4.1M | −6.2% of holding | +16.3% | +8.4% | 123,266 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | May John C II | director | Sale | 5,296 @ $503.35 | $2.7M | −4.3% of holding | +16.3% | +8.4% | 117,970 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | May John C II | director | Sale | 11,106 @ $500.08 | $5.6M | −9.0% of holding | −8.4% | −3.2% | 112,453 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Kalathur Rajesh | director | Sale | 17,645 @ $500.26 | $8.8M | −17.7% of holding | +2.8% | −7.0% | 81,813 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Kalathur Rajesh | director | Sale | 6,935 @ $501.49 | $3.5M | −8.5% of holding | +2.8% | −7.0% | 74,878 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
148 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 1,775 | 30,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 1,049 | 31,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 957 | 32,052 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 1,079 | 28,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 1,079 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 1,775 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 1,049 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 957 | 3,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 2,762 | 31,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 1,885 | 33,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 1,544 | 35,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 1,648 | 28,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 1,885 | 1,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 1,648 | 1,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 2,762 | 1,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 1,544 | 4,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 7,674 | 40,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 5,069 | 45,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 4,571 | 50,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 5,946 | 33,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 7,674 | 4,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 5,946 | 2,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 4,571 | 5,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | CAMPBELL RYAN D | officer | Option exercise | 5,069 | 2,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Norwood Terry Brent | officer | Withheld for tax | 19 | 1,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | WALKER KELLYE L. | director | Withheld for tax | 568 | 7,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | FEIGHT R PRESTON | director | Award / grant | 293 | 823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Talton Sheila | director | Award / grant | 293 | 9,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | STOCKTON DMITRI L | director | Award / grant | 293 | 9,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Sikes James Brian | director | Award / grant | 293 | 381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Award / grant | 293 | 1,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Heuberger Alan Cletus | director | Award / grant | 293 | 6,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Erwin Tami A. | director | Award / grant | 293 | 4,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Caret Leanne G | director | Award / grant | 293 | 2,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | PAGE GREGORY R | director | Award / grant | 293 | 11,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Reed Cory J | officer | Option exercise | 12,000 | 32,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Reed Cory J | officer | Option exercise | 12,000 | 7,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | May John C II | director | Option exercise | 41,472 | 159,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | May John C II | director | Option exercise | 41,472 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | May John C II | director | Withheld for tax | 2,924 | 117,970 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | purchase | 2026-01-16 | 2025-12-29 | $15–50K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2025-01-31 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-09-22 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-11-14 | 2025-10-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.