DDS · TickerCove

DDSDillard's, Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $647.49 · now $647.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DDS has typically landed between $543.73 and $799.01 — a range of −16.0% to +23.4% from the issuance price $647.49.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($647.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$647.49 · 73% of range

$509.88 low$699.52 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.4%

typical move · IQR 15.9%

−16.0%worst (p90)+23.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 1 sells · 1 member

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where DDS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $647.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $647.49 (+0.0%)
typical $662.91 (+2.4%)
middle 50% $611.58–$714.24
90% range $543.73–$799.01

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-25	−73.3%	−73.3%	+3.5%
2008-09-24	−66.5%	−66.5%	+10.8%
2008-09-26	−64.8%	−74.0%	+0.8%
3 best
2009-03-05	+121.7%	+0.0%	+125.6%
2009-03-06	+100.0%	+0.0%	+112.0%
2009-03-04	+94.9%	−13.6%	+94.9%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

61%

+3.1%

n=18

Feb

47%

+1.8%

n=19

Mar

47%

+4.7%

n=19

Apr

53%

+3.2%

n=19

May

63%

+3.0%

n=19

Jun

42%

−1.8%

n=19

Jul

74%

+4.1%

n=19

Aug

47%

+1.1%

n=19

Sep

47%

+2.5%

n=19

Oct

50%

+1.6%

n=18

Nov

78%

+8.2%

n=18

Dec

56%

+2.9%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-05	WATTS J C JR	director	Sale	400 @ $609.18	$244K	−3.8% of holding	−16.1%	not yet — horizon still open	10,150	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-16	WATTS J C JR	director	Sale	750 @ $594.60	$446K	−6.8% of holding	+4.8%	+0.2%	10,250	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-29	Johnson Chris B.	officer	Sale	400 @ $617.00	$247K	−4.1% of holding	−5.3%	−2.2%	9,351	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

297 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-04	Worley Dean L.	officer	Gift	100	6,416	Form 4
2026-09-04	Watts Phillip R.	officer	Gift	400	8,746	Form 4
2026-08-24	DILLARD ALEX	director	Award / grant	14	1,029,274	Form 4
2026-08-24	DILLARD WILLIAM T II	director	Award / grant	14	907,931	Form 4
2026-08-24	Dillard William T. III	director	Award / grant	14	29,750	Form 4
2026-08-24	LITCHFORD MIKE	officer	Award / grant	12	3,303	Form 4
2026-08-24	STOCKMAN JAMES D	officer	Award / grant	11	35,434	Form 4
2026-08-24	BOLIN TOM W	officer	Award / grant	10	1,441	Form 4
2026-08-24	MATHENY DRUE	director	Award / grant	10	404,166	Form 4
2026-08-24	DILLARD MIKE	director	Award / grant	10	546,920	Form 4
2026-08-24	Johnson Chris B.	officer	Award / grant	10	9,615	Form 4
2026-08-24	Mahaffy Denise Dillard	director	Award / grant	9	166,653	Form 4
2026-08-24	Watts Phillip R.	officer	Award / grant	9	9,146	Form 4
2026-08-24	Worley Dean L.	officer	Award / grant	8	6,516	Form 4
2026-08-24	Jazic Annemarie	officer	Award / grant	7	38,155	Form 4
2026-08-24	MUSGRAVE BRANT	officer	Award / grant	7	3,357	Form 4
2026-08-24	Lucie Denise Alexandra	officer	Award / grant	7	37,132	Form 4
2026-07-27	Dillard William T. III	director	Award / grant	16	29,736	Form 4
2026-07-27	DILLARD ALEX	director	Award / grant	16	1,029,260	Form 4
2026-07-27	DILLARD WILLIAM T II	director	Award / grant	16	907,917	Form 4
2026-07-27	LITCHFORD MIKE	officer	Award / grant	13	3,291	Form 4
2026-07-27	STOCKMAN JAMES D	officer	Award / grant	12	35,423	Form 4
2026-07-27	Johnson Chris B.	officer	Award / grant	12	9,605	Form 4
2026-07-27	MATHENY DRUE	director	Award / grant	11	404,156	Form 4
2026-07-27	BOLIN TOM W	officer	Award / grant	11	1,431	Form 4
2026-07-27	DILLARD MIKE	director	Award / grant	11	546,910	Form 4
2026-07-27	Mahaffy Denise Dillard	director	Award / grant	10	166,584	Form 4
2026-07-27	Watts Phillip R.	officer	Award / grant	10	9,137	Form 4
2026-07-27	Worley Dean L.	officer	Award / grant	9	6,508	Form 4
2026-07-27	MUSGRAVE BRANT	officer	Award / grant	8	3,350	Form 4
2026-07-27	Jazic Annemarie	officer	Award / grant	7	38,148	Form 4
2026-07-27	Lucie Denise Alexandra	officer	Award / grant	7	37,125	Form 4
2026-06-29	DILLARD WILLIAM T II	director	Award / grant	23	907,901	Form 4
2026-06-29	DILLARD ALEX	director	Award / grant	23	1,029,244	Form 4
2026-06-29	Dillard William T. III	director	Award / grant	21	29,720	Form 4
2026-06-29	LITCHFORD MIKE	officer	Award / grant	18	3,278	Form 4
2026-06-29	Johnson Chris B.	officer	Award / grant	17	9,593	Form 4
2026-06-29	STOCKMAN JAMES D	officer	Award / grant	16	35,411	Form 4
2026-06-29	DILLARD MIKE	director	Award / grant	16	546,899	Form 4
2026-06-29	MATHENY DRUE	director	Award / grant	16	404,145	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Thomas Macarthur	House	sale	2015-06-07	2015-05-27	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i