Issued 2026-09-16 at $230.79 · now $230.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DDOG has typically landed between $182.75 and $294.22 — a range of −20.8% to +27.5% from the issuance price $230.79.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,736 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-09-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($230.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DDOG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $230.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $230.79 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $231.5 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $208.29–$254.71
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $182.75–$294.22
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,736 windows spanning 2019-09-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −40.3% | −40.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-19 | −35.8% | −35.8% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-11 | −32.1% | −32.1% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-30 | +109.9% | +0.0% | +109.9% |
| 2026-04-10 | +92.0% | +0.0% | +92.0% |
| 2026-05-01 | +91.5% | +0.0% | +97.5% |
1,736 overlapping windows · 2019-09-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$87.9B
market cap
$0.38
EPS (TTM)
647.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$3.4B
'20'25
Net income$108M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr3.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr2.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.41
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$11.06
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$13.03
- Analyst target · range $139.00–$320.00$260.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$230.79
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
57%
+1.1%
n=7
Feb
43%
−3.3%
n=7
Mar
14%
−8.5%
n=7
Apr
71%
+2.5%
n=7
May
71%
+24.9%
n=7
Jun
86%
+11.0%
n=7
Jul
86%
+5.3%
n=7
Aug
29%
−2.1%
n=7
Sep
43%
+0.6%
n=7
Oct
43%
+1.4%
n=7
Nov
71%
+13.5%
n=7
Dec
14%
−4.0%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 9,623 @ $229.92 | $2.2M | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 389,791 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 5,625 @ $230.51 | $1.3M | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 384,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 5,424 @ $222.17 | $1.2M | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 409,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 3,940 @ $225.13 | $887K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 401,794 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 3,057 @ $232.71 | $711K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 378,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 2,935 @ $229.92 | $675K | −45.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 2,873 @ $229.92 | $661K | −44.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,521 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 2,656 @ $221.24 | $588K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 415,411 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 2,414 @ $231.53 | $559K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 381,752 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 2,452 @ $223.12 | $547K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 407,535 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 1,801 @ $224.34 | $404K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 405,734 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 1,729 @ $230.51 | $399K | −49.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,794 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 1,689 @ $230.51 | $389K | −48.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,832 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 1,635 @ $222.16 | $363K | −14.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,579 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 1,624 @ $222.17 | $361K | −14.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,578 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 1,189 @ $228.58 | $272K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 399,414 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 1,182 @ $225.13 | $266K | −14.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Acocella Kerry | officer | Sale | 1,156 @ $229.84 | $266K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,267 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 1,169 @ $225.13 | $263K | −14.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,160 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Acocella Kerry | officer | Sale | 1,024 @ $230.87 | $236K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,243 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 918 @ $232.71 | $214K | −82.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Acocella Kerry | officer | Sale | 900 @ $232.51 | $209K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,343 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 899 @ $232.71 | $209K | −83.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 182 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 798 @ $221.24 | $177K | −6.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 786 @ $221.24 | $174K | −6.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 724 @ $231.53 | $168K | −39.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,108 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 713 @ $231.53 | $165K | −39.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,081 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 738 @ $223.12 | $165K | −7.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,840 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 725 @ $223.12 | $162K | −7.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,854 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 628 @ $233.30 | $147K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 378,067 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 629 @ $226.19 | $142K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 401,165 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Acocella Kerry | officer | Sale | 600 @ $228.89 | $137K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,423 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 562 @ $227.72 | $128K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 400,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 545 @ $224.34 | $122K | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,295 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 525 @ $224.34 | $118K | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Acocella Kerry | officer | Sale | 409 @ $225.34 | $92K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Acocella Kerry | officer | Sale | 400 @ $224.32 | $90K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,623 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 360 @ $228.59 | $82K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 358 @ $228.60 | $82K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,458 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Acocella Kerry | officer | Sale | 300 @ $222.80 | $67K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 120,023 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 190 @ $233.30 | $44K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Acocella Kerry | officer | Sale | 200 @ $221.63 | $44K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 120,323 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Acocella Kerry | officer | Sale | 191 @ $226.32 | $43K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,023 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 190 @ $226.19 | $43K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,923 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 182 @ $233.30 | $42K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 181 @ $226.19 | $41K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,979 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 169 @ $227.72 | $38K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,754 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Sale | 163 @ $227.72 | $37K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,816 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Acocella Kerry | officer | Sale | 100 @ $233.37 | $23K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,243 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Li Yanbing | director | Sale | 7,300 @ $221.42 | $1.6M | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 251,746 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Walters Sean Michael | officer | Sale | 5,824 @ $220.67 | $1.3M | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 238,221 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Walters Sean Michael | officer | Sale | 4,286 @ $221.40 | $949K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 233,935 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Li Yanbing | director | Sale | 3,700 @ $220.57 | $816K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 259,046 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Walters Sean Michael | officer | Sale | 800 @ $219.68 | $176K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 244,045 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Li Yanbing | director | Sale | 700 @ $222.18 | $156K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 251,046 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Walters Sean Michael | officer | Sale | 500 @ $222.31 | $111K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 233,435 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Li Yanbing | director | Sale | 400 @ $219.04 | $88K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 262,746 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Li Yanbing | director | Sale | 300 @ $224.88 | $67K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 250,446 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Walters Sean Michael | officer | Sale | 300 @ $224.45 | $67K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 233,135 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Li Yanbing | director | Sale | 300 @ $223.03 | $67K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 250,746 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
59 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Conversion | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Conversion | 12,000 | 34,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | OBSTLER DAVID M | director | Conversion | 12,000 | 34,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Pomel Olivier | director | Option exercise | 35,715 | 8,820,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Pomel Olivier | director | Option exercise | 38,118 | 8,784,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Pomel Olivier | director | Option exercise | 35,715 | 631,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Pomel Olivier | director | Conversion | 89,497 | 675,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Pomel Olivier | director | Conversion | 89,497 | 8,730,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Pomel Olivier | director | Option exercise | 38,118 | 190,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Richardson Julie | director | Option exercise | 5,625 | 5,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Richardson Julie | director | Conversion | 5,625 | 8,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Richardson Julie | director | Conversion | 5,625 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Richardson Julie | director | Option exercise | 5,625 | 16,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Richardson Julie | director | Option exercise | 5,625 | 5,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Richardson Julie | director | Option exercise | 5,625 | 22,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Richardson Julie | director | Conversion | 5,625 | 8,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Richardson Julie | director | Conversion | 5,625 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Le-Quoc Alexis | director | Option exercise | 18,750 | 2,257,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Le-Quoc Alexis | director | Option exercise | 18,750 | 131,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Le-Quoc Alexis | director | Conversion | 53,912 | 2,203,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Le-Quoc Alexis | director | Conversion | 10,688 | 563,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Le-Quoc Alexis | director | Conversion | 43,224 | 553,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Le-Quoc Alexis | director | Conversion | 43,224 | 553,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Le-Quoc Alexis | director | Conversion | 43,224 | 2,238,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Pomel Olivier | director | Conversion | 47,054 | 659,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Pomel Olivier | director | Conversion | 47,054 | 8,746,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Agarwal Amit | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 190,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Agarwal Amit | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 21,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Le-Quoc Alexis | director | Option exercise | 18,750 | 2,335,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Le-Quoc Alexis | director | Option exercise | 18,750 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Le-Quoc Alexis | director | Conversion | 53,912 | 2,281,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Le-Quoc Alexis | director | Conversion | 43,224 | 553,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Le-Quoc Alexis | director | Conversion | 10,688 | 563,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Agarwal Amit | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 210,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Agarwal Amit | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 21,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pomel Olivier | director | Option exercise | 35,715 | 8,920,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pomel Olivier | director | Option exercise | 38,118 | 8,884,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pomel Olivier | director | Conversion | 127,141 | 739,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pomel Olivier | director | Conversion | 127,141 | 8,793,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pomel Olivier | director | Option exercise | 35,715 | 666,878 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-21 | $1–15K |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-19 | $15–50K |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.