DCHDauch Corp.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.00 · now $6.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DCH has typically landed between $4.73 and $7.47 — a range of −21.2% to +24.5% from the issuance price $6.00.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,000 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DCH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$4.73worst · -21.2%$7.47best · +24.5%
  • now $6 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.97 (-0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.42–$6.52
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.73–$7.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,000 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-17−77.2%−77.2%+7.9%
2008-09-18−75.6%−77.7%+5.8%
2008-09-16−74.9%−74.9%+11.0%
3 best
2009-07-23+427.4%+0.0%+485.0%
2009-03-09+413.8%+0.0%+572.4%
2009-07-24+410.7%+0.0%+446.3%

5,000 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+1.3%
n=20
Feb
45%
−2.0%
n=20
Mar
50%
−1.8%
n=20
Apr
35%
−3.1%
n=20
May
65%
+10.5%
n=20
Jun
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Jul
55%
+0.1%
n=20
Aug
40%
+5.8%
n=20
Sep
50%
−0.1%
n=20
Oct
65%
+3.1%
n=20
Nov
60%
+0.9%
n=20
Dec
65%
+3.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$9$52026-03-13: 1 insider purchase, $182K — Walker David B.2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $182K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Walker David B. — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-13Walker David B.directorPurchase35,000 @ $5.20$182Kownership Δ n/a+14.7%+5.2%35,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

37 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-04Sherbin Joshua AofficerAward / grant100,747146,202Form 4
2026-05-04Sherbin Joshua AofficerAward / grant45,45545,455Form 4
2026-05-04Kemp Terri M.officerAward / grant186,568637,231Form 4
2026-05-04Kemp Terri M.officerAward / grant186,568637,231Form 4
2026-05-04Sherbin Joshua AofficerAward / grant45,45545,455Form 4
2026-04-30Miziolek Aleksandra AdirectorAward / grant29,77389,739Form 4
2026-04-30Lyons Peter DaviddirectorAward / grant29,773212,311Form 4
2026-04-30Valenti Samuel IIIdirectorAward / grant29,773141,672Form 4
2026-04-30Mackenzie Smith SimondirectorAward / grant29,77344,167Form 4
2026-04-30Walker David B.directorAward / grant29,77364,773Form 4
2026-04-30MacAulay Fiona MdirectorAward / grant29,77330,846Form 4
2026-04-30MCCASLIN JAMES AdirectorAward / grant29,773247,283Form 4
2026-04-30Parker Herbert KdirectorAward / grant29,773209,726Form 4
2026-04-30Pierce Sandra E.directorAward / grant29,77329,773Form 4
2026-04-30Kozyra William LawrencedirectorAward / grant29,773128,864Form 4
2026-04-30Grayson-Caprio TerrydirectorAward / grant29,77369,247Form 4
2026-02-28DAUCH DAVID CdirectorWithheld for tax146,3642,416,300Form 4
2026-02-28DAUCH DAVID CdirectorWithheld for tax74,6462,562,664Form 4
2026-02-28May Christopher JohnofficerWithheld for tax34,9071,115,393Form 4
2026-02-28Lynch Michael JosephofficerWithheld for tax34,867934,125Form 4
2026-02-28Oal Tolga IofficerWithheld for tax28,164323,806Form 4
2026-02-28Kemp Terri M.officerWithheld for tax24,723450,663Form 4
2026-02-28May Christopher JohnofficerWithheld for tax17,5261,150,300Form 4
2026-02-28Lynch Michael JosephofficerWithheld for tax17,526968,992Form 4
2026-02-28Oal Tolga IofficerWithheld for tax14,021351,970Form 4
2026-02-28Kemp Terri M.officerWithheld for tax12,269475,386Form 4
2026-02-28DAUCH DAVID CdirectorAward / grant166,6202,637,310Form 4
2026-02-28Lynch Michael JosephofficerAward / grant39,120986,518Form 4
2026-02-28Kemp Terri M.officerAward / grant27,384487,655Form 4
2026-02-28May Christopher JohnofficerAward / grant39,1201,167,826Form 4
2026-02-28Oal Tolga IofficerAward / grant31,296365,991Form 4
2026-02-26DAUCH DAVID CdirectorAward / grant537,6672,470,690Form 4
2026-02-26Kemp Terri M.officerAward / grant79,764460,271Form 4
2026-02-26Bannert MarkusofficerAward / grant83,267320,184Form 4
2026-02-26Oal Tolga IofficerAward / grant79,764334,695Form 4
2026-02-26Lynch Michael JosephofficerAward / grant128,509947,398Form 4
2026-02-26May Christopher JohnofficerAward / grant113,7381,128,706Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.