Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.74 · now $37.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DBX has typically landed between $33.01 and $42.69 — a range of −12.5% to +13.1% from the issuance price $37.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,111 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-03-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DBX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $37.74 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $38.3 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.21–$40.39
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.01–$42.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,111 windows spanning 2018-03-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2019-07-17 | −31.1% | −31.1% | +0.0% |
| 2019-07-16 | −31.0% | −31.0% | +0.0% |
| 2019-07-18 | −30.0% | −30.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2018-05-17 | +37.5% | −2.9% | +37.5% |
| 2020-11-24 | +33.6% | +0.0% | +34.8% |
| 2018-05-18 | +31.5% | −1.8% | +39.1% |
2,111 overlapping windows · 2018-03-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
75%
+3.6%
n=8
Feb
13%
−6.9%
n=8
Mar
63%
+0.7%
n=8
Apr
44%
+1.9%
n=9
May
56%
+2.7%
n=9
Jun
67%
+4.9%
n=9
Jul
67%
+1.6%
n=9
Aug
67%
−1.4%
n=9
Sep
44%
+0.3%
n=9
Oct
38%
−2.0%
n=8
Nov
63%
+1.1%
n=8
Dec
38%
−0.5%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Alkarmi Ashraf | director | Sale | 28,800 @ $35.54 | $1.0M | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,004,081 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 324,432 @ $34.98 | $11.4M | −84.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 59,368 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Tennenbaum Ross | officer | Sale | 97,558 @ $35.02 | $3.4M | −12.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 690,666 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 59,368 @ $35.19 | $2.1M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Yoon William T | officer | Sale | 12,382 @ $34.78 | $431K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 366,693 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Campbell Lisa M | director | Sale | 4,598 @ $34.78 | $160K | −19.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,471 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,631 @ $35.50 | $58K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,150 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,631 @ $34.01 | $55K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,781 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Webster Eric T | officer | Sale | 15,830 @ $34.09 | $540K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 416,236 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Dasdan Ali | officer | Sale | 11,332 @ $34.13 | $387K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 471,052 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,632 @ $31.61 | $52K | −1.3% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,266 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Peacock Karen | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $33.00 | $66K | −8.2% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,366 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,306 @ $30.13 | $39K | −1.0% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,898 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Dasdan Ali | officer | Sale | 12,972 @ $30.00 | $389K | −2.5% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 501,639 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Peacock Karen | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $29.00 | $58K | −7.6% of holding | +18.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,366 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,305 @ $27.11 | $35K | −1.0% of holding | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,204 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,306 @ $26.90 | $35K | −1.0% of holding | +12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,509 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Alkarmi Ashraf | director | Sale | 22,700 @ $27.86 | $632K | −2.1% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,080,746 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,305 @ $27.66 | $36K | −1.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,815 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,306 @ $28.14 | $37K | −1.0% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 131,120 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 30,332 @ $27.50 | $834K | −100.0% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Moore Andrew William | director | Sale | 4,737 @ $27.80 | $132K | −100.0% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Yoon William T | officer | Sale | 4,029 @ $27.80 | $112K | −1.1% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 366,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Moore Andrew William | director | Sale | 3,706 @ $27.27 | $101K | −43.9% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,737 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Yoon William T | officer | Sale | 3,201 @ $27.28 | $87K | −0.9% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 370,992 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Dasdan Ali | officer | Sale | 2,966 @ $27.82 | $83K | −0.6% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 514,611 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Dasdan Ali | officer | Sale | 2,700 @ $27.28 | $74K | −0.5% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 517,577 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Campbell Lisa M | director | Sale | 4,222 @ $26.51 | $112K | −22.0% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,998 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Peacock Karen | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $26.50 | $106K | −18.8% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,295 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 37,498 @ $25.96 | $974K | −100.0% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,769 @ $23.95 | $42K | −1.3% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 136,106 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,415 @ $22.99 | $33K | −1.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,875 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 111,166 @ $22.89 | $2.5M | −100.0% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,416 @ $22.60 | $32K | −1.7% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,073 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,415 @ $25.76 | $36K | −1.7% of holding | −12.1% | +33.5% | 83,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Yoon William T | officer | Sale | 8,775 @ $25.90 | $227K | −4.4% of holding | −15.5% | +22.8% | 189,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Peacock Karen | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $26.50 | $53K | −8.6% of holding | −15.5% | +22.8% | 21,295 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Yoon William T | officer | Sale | 400 @ $26.57 | $11K | −0.2% of holding | −15.5% | +22.8% | 189,555 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Alkarmi Ashraf | director | Sale | 12,472 @ $26.00 | $324K | −2.9% of holding | −8.4% | +18.3% | 414,661 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 109,498 @ $24.94 | $2.7M | −100.0% of holding | −4.0% | +28.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,415 @ $24.76 | $35K | −1.6% of holding | −4.0% | +28.6% | 84,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Dasdan Ali | officer | Sale | 7,306 @ $24.89 | $182K | −1.4% of holding | −3.1% | +32.0% | 499,379 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,416 @ $24.49 | $35K | −1.6% of holding | +5.8% | +25.1% | 86,319 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 164,502 @ $25.66 | $4.2M | −100.0% of holding | +3.5% | +23.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,462 @ $25.79 | $38K | −1.6% of holding | +4.4% | +19.6% | 91,240 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,168 @ $26.84 | $31K | −1.2% of holding | −6.3% | +7.4% | 92,702 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 23,818 @ $27.51 | $655K | −100.0% of holding | −10.2% | +1.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 36,182 @ $27.54 | $996K | −100.0% of holding | −8.2% | +1.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 79,363 @ $26.79 | $2.1M | −85.6% of holding | −7.7% | −2.9% | 13,305 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 13,305 @ $27.58 | $367K | −100.0% of holding | −7.7% | −2.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,168 @ $27.88 | $33K | −1.2% of holding | −8.5% | −7.4% | 93,870 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Regan Timothy | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $28.35 | $43K | −0.3% of holding | −6.8% | −14.7% | 437,647 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,168 @ $28.35 | $33K | −1.2% of holding | −6.8% | −14.7% | 95,038 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 9,167 @ $30.00 | $275K | −100.0% of holding | −10.8% | −16.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Houston Andrew | director | Sale | 92,000 @ $29.53 | $2.7M | −100.0% of holding | −5.7% | −17.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,168 @ $29.60 | $35K | −1.2% of holding | −5.7% | −17.4% | 96,206 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Regan Timothy | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $29.64 | $44K | −0.3% of holding | −8.3% | −17.5% | 439,147 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Dasdan Ali | officer | Sale | 5,666 @ $30.00 | $170K | −1.1% of holding | −9.5% | −25.8% | 520,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,168 @ $29.43 | $34K | −1.2% of holding | −6.5% | −23.9% | 97,374 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Alkarmi Ashraf | director | Sale | 6,300 @ $28.98 | $183K | −1.4% of holding | −6.0% | −20.7% | 439,608 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
110 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Houston Andrew | director | Conversion | 383,800 | 65,944,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Houston Andrew | director | Conversion | 383,800 | 383,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Award / grant | 21,709 | 136,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Yoon William T | officer | Award / grant | 28,945 | 379,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Tennenbaum Ross | officer | Award / grant | 28,945 | 788,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Torres Michael Ivan | officer | Award / grant | 842,316 | 842,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Alkarmi Ashraf | director | Withheld for tax | 47,865 | 1,032,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Tennenbaum Ross | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,326 | 759,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Dasdan Ali | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,255 | 482,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Yoon William T | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,833 | 350,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Webster Eric T | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,820 | 432,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,854 | 118,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Alkarmi Ashraf | director | Award / grant | 478,551 | 1,103,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Parasnis Abhay | director | Award / grant | 9,071 | 47,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Peacock Karen | director | Award / grant | 9,071 | 26,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Seibel Michael | director | Award / grant | 9,071 | 65,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Moore Andrew William | director | Award / grant | 9,071 | 9,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | JENSON WARREN | director | Award / grant | 9,071 | 20,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Campbell Lisa M | director | Award / grant | 9,071 | 24,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Houston Andrew | director | Conversion | 30,332 | 30,332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Houston Andrew | director | Conversion | 30,332 | 66,328,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Alkarmi Ashraf | director | Withheld for tax | 21,446 | 624,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Tennenbaum Ross | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,325 | 779,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Dasdan Ali | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,254 | 520,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Yoon William T | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,124 | 374,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Webster Eric T | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,871 | 446,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,680 | 132,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Houston Andrew | director | Conversion | 37,498 | 66,358,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Houston Andrew | director | Conversion | 37,498 | 37,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Houston Andrew | director | Conversion | 111,166 | 66,396,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Schubach Sarah Elizabeth | officer | Award / grant | 57,217 | 139,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Alkarmi Ashraf | director | Award / grant | 231,680 | 646,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dasdan Ali | officer | Award / grant | 40,152 | 539,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Yoon William T | officer | Award / grant | 200,762 | 390,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Houston Andrew | director | Conversion | 111,166 | 111,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Houston Andrew | director | Conversion | 109,498 | 109,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Houston Andrew | director | Conversion | 109,498 | 66,507,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Tennenbaum Ross | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,496 | 799,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Dasdan Ali | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,789 | 506,685 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Alkarmi Ashraf | director | Withheld for tax | 8,677 | 427,133 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.